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Failure Encyclopedia — Wave 1 501 gold-tier cases · History as structure, not prophecy · 2026-06-13 08:20 UTC

Every case is documented with its judicial and on-chain sources, its failure chain, root cause, contagion and unknowns. Patterns match structurally to new cases — not prediction, but organized memory.

Encyclopedia health

501gold-tier cases
50DNA signatures
69average confidence
246contagion edges
998evidence refs
501declared unknowns
11failure categories
100encyclopedia readiness /100

Most recurring pre-failure signals

202Single point of failure — appeared before 202 collapses
160Custody opacity — appeared before 160 collapses
73Governance risk — appeared before 73 collapses
71Narrative fragility — appeared before 71 collapses
70Liquidity concentration — appeared before 70 collapses

Failure DNA — recurring signatures

Liquidity Concentration DNA6 cases
Liquidity in a single pool/venue ← Withdrawal event ← Collapse of depth ← Spiral
Cases: UST-DEPEG-2022, CRV-2023, VENUS-2021, DYDX-2023, VOYAGER-2022, HYPERLIQUID-JELLY-2025
Reserve Mismatch DNA5 cases
Promise of instant liquidity ← Assets slower than promised ← Mass Withdrawal ← Gap
Cases: SVB-USDC-2023, USDR-2023, IRON-2021, CELSIUS-2022, HODLNAUT-2022
Artificial Yield DNA6 cases
Above-market yield ← Funded from capital, not revenue ← Growth dependent on newcomers ← Exposure
Cases: ANCHOR-2022, BITCONNECT-2018, CELSIUS-2022, FCOIN-2020, PLUSTOKEN-2019, FINIKO-2021
Single Point DNA7 cases
Single dependency (key/pool/party/sequencer) ← Point failure ← Paralysis or total loss
Cases: MULTICHAIN-2023, QUADRIGA-2019, INFURA-2020, ARBITRUM-SEQ-2023, PARITY-2017, VOYAGER-2022, OPTIMISM-OUTAGE-2024
Custody Opacity DNA5 cases
Opaque customer assets ← No independent audit ← Gap grows silently ← Delayed Exposure
Cases: FTX-2022, MTGOX-2014, PRIMETRUST-2023, BABEL-2022, FCOIN-2020
Treasury Stress DNA3 cases
Liabilities exceeding live liquidity ← Defensive deployment ← Drain ← Deficit
Cases: LFG-2022, ANCHOR-2022, CELSIUS-CLAWBACK-2024
Cross-chain Risk DNA7 cases
Asset locked here, represented there ← Trust in the Bridge ← Breach of representation ← Decoupling of value
Cases: WORMHOLE-2022, NOMAD-2022, RONIN-2022, MULTICHAIN-2023, HARMONY-2022, BNBBRIDGE-2022, POLYNETWORK2-2023
Contagion DNA7 cases
Interlocking undeclared Exposures ← Fall of the first ← Concurrent calls ← Chain falling
Cases: TERRA-2022, 3AC-2022, GENESIS-2023, FTX-2022, BLOCKFI-2022, ZIPMEX-2022, VAULD-2022
Operational Negligence DNA4 cases
Prior warnings ← Postponing the Fix ← The Declared event occurs
Cases: ZAIF-2018, CREAM-2021, BALANCER-2023, POLYNETWORK2-2023
Signer Deception DNA4 cases
Poisoned signing interface ← The signer sees other than what they sign ← Privileges seized ← Withdrawal
Cases: WAZIRX-2024, RADIANT-2024, BYBIT-2025, BADGER-2021
Tooling Trust DNA4 cases
Fault in compiler/library/generator ← Sound contracts atop a punctured foundation ← Exploit
Cases: CURVE-VYPER-2023, WINTERMUTE-2022, LEDGER-KIT-2023, SLOPE-2022
Chain Halt DNA5 cases
Load or upgrade fault ← Production halt ← Centralized coordination for recovery
Cases: SOLANA-OUTAGES-2022, SOLANA-2024, POLYGON-OUTAGE-2022, OPTIMISM-OUTAGE-2024, ARBITRUM-SEQ-2023
Single Oracle DNA4 cases
Single feed ← Fault or distortion ← Financial decisions on a false price
Cases: SYNTHETIX-ORACLE-2019, MIRROR-2022, BZX-2020, UWU-2024
Regulatory Reckoning DNA5 cases
Growth in a gray area ← Accumulation of violations ← Major Settlement/conviction ← Restructuring
Cases: BINANCE-DOJ-2023, KUCOIN-DOJ-2024, BUSD-2023, BITTREX-2023, TORNADO-SANCTIONS-2022
Political Meme DNA2 cases
Launch with political backing ← Internal concentration ← Peak of hype ← Predatory Exit
Cases: LIBRA-MEME-2025, SQUID-2021
Extraction Factories DNA3 cases
Heavy artificial launch ← Overwhelming statistical death ← Latecomers' liquidity is harvested
Cases: GENIUS-PUMP-2024, KOMA-BSC-2024, ANUBIS-2021
Departing Insider DNA3 cases
Privileges not Withdrawn upon departure ← Subsequent use ← Withdrawal
Cases: INFINI-2025, SUSHI-NOMI-2020, GALA-2024
Inherited Vulnerability DNA3 cases
Cloning code with a known vulnerability ← Striking it at the source ← Striking the copies one after another
Cases: SONNE-2024, UWU-2024, URANIUM-2021
Fund Drain DNA3 cases
Limited protection fund ← Attack engineered to its limits ← Drain
Cases: DYDX-2023, HYPERLIQUID-JELLY-2025, MANGO-2022
Deferred Distribution DNA2 cases
Assets held for years ← Approaching distribution ← Narrative pressure preceding the offering
Cases: MOUNTGOX-DIST-2024, CELSIUS-CLAWBACK-2024
Stablecoin Tree DNA3 cases
Stablecoin atop stablecoin ← Shaking of the root ← Immediate shaking of the branches
Cases: USDC-DEPEG-MINOR-2023, MIM-2022, DEI-2022
Bot Custody DNA3 cases
Keys held by a trading bot ← Breach of the operator ← Mass Drain
Cases: BANANA-GUN-2024, SLOPE-2022, ATOMIC-2023
Reentrancy DNA4 cases
External call before state update ← Withdrawal loop ← Drain
Cases: THEDAO-2016, FEIRARI-2022, PENPIE-2024, CURVE-VYPER-2023
Upgrade Windows DNA4 cases
Upgrade/migration opening a window ← Attacker faster than the shutdown ← A strike within the window
Cases: SONNE-2024, RONIN2-2024, PRISMA-2024, SAFEMOON-EXPLOIT-2023
Exposure Spark DNA3 cases
Leak/negative report ← Loss of trust within hours ← Flight preceding any final truth
Cases: FTX-2022, CELSIUS-2022, SILVERGATE-2023
White Mirror DNA3 cases
The same vulnerabilities ← Its finder is ethical ← Disclosure and Fix ← The disaster that did not occur
Cases: OPTIMISM-2022, POLY-2021, EULER-2023
Legal Tail DNA3 cases
Collapse seemingly resolved ← Subsequent claims and Prosecutions ← Tails for years
Cases: CELSIUS-CLAWBACK-2024, MTGOX-2014, CRYPTOPIA-2019
Successor Platform Risk DNA3 cases
Leverage advancing on thin protocol assets ← Extreme position ← The platform inherits the loss
Cases: HYPERLIQUID-JELLY-2025, DYDX-2023, VENUS-2021
Social Engineering DNA4 cases
Human, not technical, targeting ← Trust exploited ← Privileges handed over voluntarily
Cases: RONIN-2022, DMM-2024, NICEHASH-2017, RADIANT-2024
Governance Capture DNA6 cases
Votes available for purchase or rent ← Hidden or unreadable payload ← Execution without sufficient notice ← Control or dumping
Cases: BEANSTALK-2022, TORNADO-GOV-2023, BUILD-2022, MANGO-2022, SOLEND-2022, JUNO-2022
Oracle Manipulation DNA6 cases
Oracle reading a thin market ← Flash loan or concentrated injection ← Artificially inflated collateral ← Borrowing and withdrawal
Cases: MANGO-2022, BZX-2020, HARVEST-2020, VENUS-2021, PANCAKEBUNNY-2021, UWU-2024
Treasury Failure DNA3 cases
Treasury under pressure of liabilities ← Defensive deployment or operational Drain ← Selling into an adverse market ← Depletion without rescue
Cases: LFG-2022, ANCHOR-2022, FCOIN-2020
Custody Failure DNA7 cases
Concentrated or hot keys ← Without effective multisig ← Breach or loss ← Drain
Cases: MTGOX-2014, COINCHECK-2018, KUCOIN-2020, BITMART-2021, PRIMETRUST-2023, DMM-2024, QUADRIGA-2019
Narrative Collapse DNA5 cases
Rising narrative without foundation ← Hype-driven inflows ← Revealing event ← Collapse of trust and Evaporation of liquidity
Cases: SQUID-2021, ANUBIS-2021, BITCONNECT-2018, SAFEMOON-2023, FTT-2022
Infinite Mint DNA6 cases
Accessible mint privilege ← Incomplete collateral or proof verification ← Minting without backing ← Dumping before discovery
Cases: CASHIO-2022, ACALA-2022, WORMHOLE-2022, QUBIT-2022, GALA-2024, BNBBRIDGE-2022
Flash Economic Attack DNA6 cases
Temporary capital at no cost ← Protocol state read at the moment ← Distortion then atomic execution ← Profit in a single transaction
Cases: BZX-2020, HARVEST-2020, PANCAKEBUNNY-2021, BEANSTALK-2022, PLATYPUS-2023, SPARTAN-2021
Key Compromise DNA6 cases
Social engineering or malicious software ← Blind signing or poisoned interface ← Critical privileges seized ← Withdrawal
Cases: RONIN-2022, WAZIRX-2024, RADIANT-2024, HARMONY-2022, ORBIT-2024, NICEHASH-2017
Supply Chain DNA5 cases
Shared software dependency ← Breach of a single distant link ← Silent spread across products ← Mass harvesting
Cases: LEDGER-KIT-2023, SLOPE-2022, BADGER-2021, DMM-2024, WINTERMUTE-2022
Banking Contagion DNA3 cases
Reserves or deposits in concentrated banks ← Conventional bank run ← Panic spreading to digital assets ← Depeg or Settlement paralysis
Cases: SVB-USDC-2023, SILVERGATE-2023, SIGNATURE-2023
Exit Scam DNA8 cases
Promise of yield or hype ← Single control over the funds ← Pretext (Breach/death/regulation) ← Disappearance
Cases: THODEX-2021, AFRICRYPT-2021, QUADRIGA-2019, ANUBIS-2021, ONECOIN-2017, PLUSTOKEN-2019, WOTOKEN-2020, FINIKO-2021
Arithmetic Precision Error DNA5 cases
Broken constant, rounding, or check ordering ← Rare mathematical edge case ← Precise revenue engineering ← Drain
Cases: URANIUM-2021, KYBER-2023, SONNE-2024, COMPOUND-2021, YAM-2020
Admin Privileges DNA5 cases
Broad administrative key ← Personal, not structural, trust ← Sudden use of the privilege ← Withdrawal or paralysis
Cases: SUSHI-NOMI-2020, SAFEMOON-2023, MULTICHAIN-2023, GALA-2024, PARITY-2017
Incentive Spiral DNA6 cases
Rewards exceeding real revenue ← Growth dependent on new entrants ← Slowdown of the flow ← Death spiral
Cases: ANCHOR-2022, FCOIN-2020, BITCONNECT-2018, IRON-2021, BASIS-2020, PANCAKEBUNNY-2021
Regulatory Shutdown DNA3 cases
Model in a gray area ← Decisive regulatory action ← Dismantling or withdrawal ← Orderly, not chaotic, death
Cases: BUSD-2023, BITTREX-2023, SIGNATURE-2023
Counterparty Concentration DNA7 cases
Large Exposure to a single party ← Stumbling of the party ← Immediate Deficit ← Contagion to customers
Cases: VOYAGER-2022, GEMINI-EARN-2023, ZIPMEX-2022, HODLNAUT-2022, BLOCKFI-2022, MAPLE-2022, LIQUID-2021
Stablecoin Collapse DNA9 cases
Incomplete or reflexive collateral ← Artificial yield attracting deposits ← Liquidity concentration ← Pressure event ← Bank run ← Death of the peg
Cases: TERRA-2022, UST-DEPEG-2022, IRON-2021, MIM-2022, SVB-USDC-2023, USDN-2022, DEI-2022, USDR-2023, BASIS-2020
Bridge Exploit DNA4 cases
Fragile signature/proof verification ← Concentrated keys ← Immediate Minting without backing ← Exploit ← Mass Withdrawal
Cases: NOMAD-2022, RONIN-2022, WORMHOLE-2022, MULTICHAIN-2023
Leverage Collapse DNA3 cases
Unsecured borrowing from multiple parties ← Self-referential or fragile collateral ← Market shock ← Simultaneous margin calls ← Deficit and contagion
Cases: 3AC-2022, ALAMEDA-2022, CRV-2023
Liquidity Crisis DNA5 cases
Liquidity concentration in a single point ← Oracle dependency on a thin market ← Large Withdrawal event ← Liquidation spiral
Cases: UST-DEPEG-2022, MANGO-2022, CRV-2023, FTT-2022, VOYAGER-2022
Platform Insolvency DNA7 cases
Commingling of client funds ← Opaque custody with no audit ← Gap covered by fictitious assets ← Leak or rumor ← Bank run ← Freeze and Bankruptcy
Cases: FTX-2022, CELSIUS-2022, MTGOX-2014, QUADRIGA-2019, BITCONNECT-2018, GENESIS-2023, BLOCKFI-2022

Cases (501)

GMX — the derivatives treasury drained Protocol failure 2025-07 confidence 68
Exploit of the assets-under-management calculation logic ← Phantom minting drains the treasury ← 42 million
Root cause: The complexity of value computation in derivatives hides the vulnerabilities
Outcome: One of the largest Exploits of 2025 · Recovery: Negotiated Recovery
Contagion ← No documented contagion
Signals before failure: Single point of failureLeverage expansion
Unknowns:
Sources: Jul 2025
ALEX Lab — Stacks bridge drained Bridge failure 2025-06 confidence 54
Breach of the bridge keys ← Drain of 8 million ← Suspension and negotiation
Root cause: Emerging Bitcoin bridges inherit key risks
Outcome: — · Recovery: Partial
Contagion ← ORBIT-CHAIN-2024
Signals before failure: Custody opacitySingle point of failure
Unknowns:
Sources: Jun 2025 · Unchained: Alex Lab to Reimburse Users After $8.3M Exploit (2025-06) https://unchainedcrypto.com/alex-lab-to-reimburse-users-after-8-3m-exploit/ · Halborn: Explained: The ALEX Protocol Hack (June 2025) (2025-06) https://www.halborn.com/blog/post/explained-the-alex-protocol-hack-june-2025 · Neptune Mutual: Taking a Closer Look at Alex Lab Exploit (2025-06) https://neptunemutual.com/blog/taking-a-closer-look-at-alex-lab-exploit/ · ALEX Lab Foundation (official statement): ALEX Lab Foundation Response to June 2025 Security Incident (2025-06-26) https://x.com/ALEXLabBTC/status/1939449587355316360
Nobitex — a politically motivated breach Exchange failure 2025-06 confidence 60
Breach with declared political motives ← Burning of about 90 million into vanity addresses ← Reputational and operational damage
Root cause: When the Breach becomes a political message rather than a financial theft
Outcome: A rare pattern: destruction not profit · Recovery: Grave damage
Contagion ← No documented contagion
Signals before failure: Custody opacity
Unknowns: The actual perpetrator
Sources: Jun 2025
Resupply — manipulated stablecoin oracle Protocol failure 2025-06 confidence 56
Manipulation of a stablecoin price as collateral ← Leveraged borrowing ← 9.6 million
Root cause: Even stablecoins as collateral are susceptible to momentary distortion
Outcome: — · Recovery: None approximately
Contagion ← STURDY-2023
Signals before failure: Single point of failureReserve mismatch
Unknowns:
Sources: Jun 2025
Cetus — curve logic on Sui Protocol failure 2025-05 confidence 70
Flaw in the concentrated-liquidity calculation ← Inflation of a phantom share ← 223 million and a freeze by vote
Root cause: Concentrated liquidity hides fatal mathematical edges
Outcome: The largest Exploit in the Sui ecosystem · Recovery: Freeze and Partial recovery
Contagion ← No documented contagion
Signals before failure: Single point of failureLiquidity concentration
Unknowns:
Sources: May 2025 · Elliptic: Cetus Protocol hacked for more than $200 million (2025-05) https://www.elliptic.co/blog/cetus-protocol-hacked-for-more-than-200-million · Halborn: Explained: The Cetus Hack (May 2025) (2025-05) https://www.halborn.com/blog/post/explained-the-cetus-hack-may-2025 · Cyfrin: Inside The $223M Cetus Exploit: Root Cause And Impact Analysis (2025-05) https://www.cyfrin.io/blog/inside-the-223m-cetus-exploit-root-cause-and-impact-analysis · Sui Foundation (official): Response to the Cetus Incident — Onchain Community Vote (2025-05-27) https://blog.sui.io/cetus-incident-response-onchain-community-vote/
Cetus contagion — the Sui ecosystem shakes Liquidity failure 2025-05 confidence 62
Cetus exploit drains Sui liquidity ← De-peg of linked tokens ← Freeze and a recovery vote
Root cause: Draining a major liquidity provider parches a Full ecosystem
Outcome: Exposing an ecosystem's dependence on a single liquidity provider · Recovery: Partial recovery
Contagion ← CETUS-2025
Signals before failure: Liquidity concentrationSingle point of failure
Unknowns:
Sources: May 2025
Small Solana incidents, 2025 Protocol failure 2025-04 confidence 60
Collateral-pricing vulnerabilities ← Scattered exploits ← Negotiated recoveries
Root cause: The collateral oracle pattern in the new generation
Outcome: Old lessons recur in young ecosystems · Recovery: Partial
Contagion ← No documented contagion
Signals before failure: Liquidity concentration
Unknowns:
Sources: reports 2025
sUSD — drift after the upgrade Stablecoin failure 2025-04 confidence 66
Change of the collateral model ← Breakdown of the old peg incentives ← Drift below 0.9 for weeks
Root cause: Re-engineering the peg without a sufficient transitional Bridge
Outcome: A late incentive rescue plan · Recovery: Slow Partial
Contagion ← No documented contagion
Signals before failure: Reserve mismatchNarrative fragility
Unknowns: Extent of full peg recovery
Sources: peg data Apr 2025
FDUSD — an accusation shakes the peg Stablecoin failure 2025-04 confidence 66
Public accusation of issuer insolvency ← Sharp de-peg lasting hours ← Denial, audit and recovery
Root cause: Stablecoin trust is hostage to a tweet in the absence of instant transparency
Outcome: A Personal conflict exposed structural Fragility · Recovery: Rapid
Contagion ← No documented contagion
Signals before failure: Narrative fragilityCustody opacity
Unknowns: The real background of the dispute
Sources: depeg Apr 2025
eXch — the Bybit laundromat goes dark Fraud 2025-04 confidence 70
Massive laundering flows after the Bybit breach ← Declared refusal to comply ← Self-shutdown then German seizures
Root cause: A service that boasts of noncompliance writes its own ending
Outcome: The most prominent laundering ring for the era's Breach · Recovery: Partial Seizure
Contagion ← BYBIT-2025
Signals before failure: Custody opacity
Unknowns: Volume that evaded seizure
Sources: DE Apr-May 2025
Loopscale — Solana oracle Protocol failure 2025-04 confidence 56
Oracle manipulation of a collateral asset ← Leveraged borrowing ← 5.8 million and negotiation
Root cause: The small-asset oracle on Solana is a recurring target
Outcome: — · Recovery: Recovery
Contagion ← LOOPSCALE-2025
Signals before failure: Single point of failureLeverage expansion
Unknowns:
Sources: Apr 2025
Term Finance — broken price logic Protocol failure 2025-04 confidence 50
Bug in fixed-price calculation ← Position drain ← About two million
Root cause: Fixed-term lending carries fragile price assumptions
Outcome: — · Recovery: Partial
Contagion ← No documented contagion
Signals before failure: Single point of failure
Unknowns:
Sources: Apr 2025
Mantra — the ninety-percent collapse Liquidity failure 2025-04 confidence 70
Enormous ownership concentration ← Sudden liquidation in thin liquidity ← 90% collapse within hours
Root cause: Ownership concentration atop thin liquidity is a Collapse bomb
Outcome: Among the most violent instantaneous Collapses in 2025 · Recovery: Collapse
Contagion ← MANTRA-OM-2025
Signals before failure: Liquidity concentrationNarrative fragility
Unknowns: The role of each party in the liquidation
Sources: Apr 2025 · Cointelegraph (Lookonchain/Arkham data): How Mantra's OM token collapsed in 24 hours of chaos (2025-04) https://cointelegraph.com/news/mantra-om-token-collapsed-24-hours · MANTRA (official): Statement of Events: 13th April 2025 (2025-04) https://mantrachain.io/resources/announcements/statement-of-events-13-april-2025 · CoinDesk: Mantra's OM Crashes 90% in Bizarre Sell-Off (2025-04-14) https://www.coindesk.com/markets/2025/04/14/mantra-s-om-crashes-90-in-bizarre-selloff-as-team-alleges-forced-liquidations · CoinDesk: Mantra to Burn 300M OM Tokens, Half From Founder (2025-04-22) https://www.coindesk.com/markets/2025/04/22/mantra-to-burn-160m-om-tokens-50-from-daos-founder-following-90-price-crash
The stablecoin summer — a de-peg wave Stablecoin failure 2025-04 confidence 54
Simultaneous pressure on several stablecoins ← Uneven de-peg ← Reserve interventions
Root cause: Simultaneous stablecoin pressure exposes their hidden interdependence
Outcome: Archive of stablecoin pressure 2025 · Recovery: Disparity
Contagion ← FDUSD-2025
Signals before failure: Reserve mismatchNarrative fragility
Unknowns:
Sources: 2025
Hyperliquid — the JELLY crisis Liquidity failure 2025-03 confidence 74
A huge short on a thin memecoin ← Deliberate price pump ← The platform treasury inherits the losing position ← Controversial delisting
Root cause: The platform's automated market maker inherits the speculators' risks
Outcome: The centralization debate: the clawback decision saved the treasury and exposed the authority · Recovery: The treasury absorbed then recovered
Contagion ← No documented contagion
Signals before failure: Liquidity concentrationGovernance risk
Unknowns: Coordination among the attackers
Sources: public records Mar 2025
Politically charged stablecoin freezes Governance failure 2025-03 confidence 58
Broad freeze powers in a politically loaded stablecoin ← Controversial uses ← Governance questions with no answers
Root cause: The power of the Freeze without a transparent governance framework
Outcome: A live test of the limits of the issuer's authority · Recovery: Ongoing
Contagion ← No documented contagion
Signals before failure: Governance riskCustody opacity
Unknowns: The internal freezing criteria
Sources: public records 2025
Garantex — the sanctioned protocol falls Fraud 2025-03 confidence 72
Prior sanctions and persistent disregard ← Domain seizure and freezing of 26 million ← Halt of operations and prosecutions
Root cause: Regulatory islands sink when states coordinate
Outcome: The heir's game continues under new names · Recovery: Seizure
Contagion ← HYDRA-2022
Signals before failure: Custody opacity
Unknowns: The successor network
Sources: intl op Mar 2025
Sui — finality fluctuation Infrastructure failure 2025-03 confidence 56
Pressure after the Cetus exploit ← A temporary network slowdown ← Stabilization
Root cause: The shock of a major Exploit shakes the network's own performance
Outcome: — · Recovery: Stabilization
Contagion ← CETUS-2025
Signals before failure: Single point of failure
Unknowns:
Sources: 2025
The generated-meme wave — automated harvesting Fraud 2025-03 confidence 54
A meme wave with generated images ← Automated launches in the thousands ← A rapid coordinated dump
Root cause: Launch automation created looting factories
Outcome: Archive of automated meme factories · Recovery: None
Contagion ← GROK-LP-2024
Signals before failure: Narrative fragilityLiquidity concentration
Unknowns:
Sources: 2025 · Cryptonews: Studio Ghibli-Inspired Meme Coins Surge After OpenAI's 4o Release (2025-03) https://cryptonews.com/news/studio-ghibli-inspired-meme-coin-surge-on-ethereum-and-solana-after-openais-4o-release/ · BanklessTimes: Solana-based Ghibli Token Pumps After AI Art Goes Viral (2025-03-28) https://www.banklesstimes.com/articles/2025/03/28/solana-based-ghibli-token-pumps-after-ai-art-goes-viral/ · Solidus Labs: Solana Rug Pulls & Pump-and-Dumps (2025 Rug Pull Report) (2025-05) https://www.soliduslabs.com/reports/solana-rug-pulls-pump-dumps-crypto-compliance · CoinDesk: Pump.fun Hits Back at Report That Claimed 98% of Memecoins Are Fraudulent (2025-05-07) https://www.coindesk.com/business/2025/05/07/98-of-tokens-on-pump-fun-have-been-rug-pulls-or-an-act-of-fraud-new-report-says
Abracadabra — the fourth wound Protocol failure 2025-03 confidence 62
Exploit of a new cauldron ← MAGIC minting without backing ← 13 million
Root cause: A repeatedly Breached protocol loses all remaining trust
Outcome: A fourth documented wound to a single ecosystem · Recovery: Weak
Contagion ← ABRACADABRA-2024
Signals before failure: Single point of failure
Unknowns:
Sources: Mar 2025 · Three Sigma: MIM Spell Third Exploit: Inside the $1.7M Abracadabra Hack (2025) https://threesigma.xyz/blog/exploit/mimspell-abracadabra-hack-breakdown · InfyniSec (Medium): A deep examination of the Abracadabra exploit (2025-03) https://medium.com/@InfyniSec/a-deep-examination-of-the-abracadabra-exploit-183da57485cf · Rekt News: Abracadabra - Rekt III (2025-03) https://rekt.news/abracadabra-rekt3 · CoinDesk: Abracadabra Drained of $13M in Attack Targeting Cauldrons Tied to GMX Liquidity Tokens (2025-03-25) https://www.coindesk.com/business/2025/03/25/abracadabra-drained-of-usd13m-in-exploit-targeting-cauldrons-tied-to-gmx-liquidity-tokens
1inch — old contract exploited Protocol failure 2025-03 confidence 56
Vulnerability in an old resolver contract ← Harvest from market makers ← 5 million
Root cause: Old un-deprecated contracts are sleeping bombs
Outcome: — · Recovery: Negotiated Recovery
Contagion ← No documented contagion
Signals before failure: Single point of failure
Unknowns:
Sources: Mar 2025
ZeroLend — Linea wave Protocol failure 2025-03 confidence 50
Exploit of lending logic ← Limited drain ← Freeze
Root cause: New environments repeat old lending lessons
Outcome: — · Recovery: Partial
Contagion ← POLTER-2024
Signals before failure: Single point of failure
Unknowns:
Sources: Mar 2025
Hyperliquid — JELLY and the treasury Liquidity failure 2025-03 confidence 66
Massive position threatens the provider treasury ← Controversial liquidation intervention ← Debate over the centralization of intervention
Root cause: A market maker's unified treasury is a systemic point of failure
Outcome: Exposing the dilemma of a platform intervening to protect its treasury · Recovery: Contested Containment
Contagion ← HYPERLIQUID-JELLY-2025
Signals before failure: Liquidity concentrationGovernance risk
Unknowns:
Sources: Mar 2025
zkLend — the Starknet exploit Protocol failure 2025-02 confidence 68
A rounding vulnerability in deposits ← Gradual inflation ← $9.5M drained ← The exploiter lost part in a fake mixer
Root cause: A precision vulnerability + poetic justice: the thief was robbed
Outcome: Among the most notable Starknet incidents · Recovery: Partial, minimal
Contagion ← No documented contagion
Signals before failure: Single point of failure
Unknowns:
Sources: post-mortem Feb 2025
Bybit — largest theft in history Exchange failure 2025-02 confidence 86
Poisoning the cold-signing interface ← The signers trusted what they saw, not what they signed ← $1.5B in ETH transferred ← Immediate make-good from reserves and loans
Root cause: Blind signing reaches its peak: a cold wallet stolen via an interface
Outcome: Attributed to Lazarus; record-breaking by every measure · Recovery: Compensation Full Declared within days
Contagion ← WAZIRX-2024, RADIANT-2024
Signals before failure: Custody opacitySingle point of failure
Unknowns: The full laundering trail is being traced
Sources: FBI attribution Feb 2025 · exchange disclosures · Bybit: Bybit Security Incident: Timeline of Events and FAQs (2025-02) https://learn.bybit.com/en/this-week-in-bybit/bybit-security-incident-timeline · Chainalysis: Collaboration in the Wake of Record-Breaking Bybit Theft (2025-02) https://www.chainalysis.com/blog/bybit-exchange-hack-february-2025-crypto-security-dprk/ · Sygnia: Sygnia's Investigation into the Bybit Hack (2025-02) https://www.sygnia.co/blog/sygnia-investigation-bybit-hack/ · TRM Labs: The Bybit Hack: Following North Korea's Largest Exploit (2025-02) https://www.trmlabs.com/resources/blog/the-bybit-hack-following-north-koreas-largest-exploit · Elliptic: The largest theft in history — following the money trail from the Bybit Hack (2025-02) https://www.elliptic.co/blog/bybit-hack-largest-in-history · FBI: North Korea Responsible for $1.5 Billion Bybit Hack (FBI Cyber Alert) (2025-02-26) https://www.fbi.gov/investigate/cyber/alerts/2025/north-korea-responsible-for-1-5-billion-bybit-hack · FBI IC3: PSA 250226: North Korea Responsible for $1.5 Billion Bybit Hack (2025-02-26) https://www.ic3.gov/psa/2025/psa250226
Infini — a former engineer with live keys Exchange failure 2025-02 confidence 66
Contract privileges retained by a departed developer ← $49M drained ← The former-employee pattern
Root cause: Permission lifecycle management neglected the departed
Outcome: Within the February 2025 wave · Recovery: None approximately
Contagion ← No documented contagion
Signals before failure: Custody opacityGovernance risk
Unknowns:
Sources: trace Feb 2025
LIBRA — a presidential memecoin that burns its audience Fraud 2025-02 confidence 78
Launch with Argentine political promotion ← Internal concentration of supply ← $100M+ liquidity pulled ← 90% collapse within hours
Root cause: The Trump pattern with a predatory Exit: entrants' liquidity exited to the launchers' pockets
Outcome: A cross-border scandal with multiple investigations · Recovery: None
Contagion ← SQUID-2021
Signals before failure: Narrative fragilityCustody opacity
Unknowns: The full launcher network is in litigation
Sources: investigations 2025 · JURIST: Argentina president sued for promoting cryptocurrency $LIBRA (2025-02) https://www.jurist.org/news/2025/02/argentina-president-sued-for-promoting-cryptocurrency-libra/ · Nansen Research: LIBRA - The Aftermath (2025-02) https://research.nansen.ai/articles/libra-the-aftermath · Fortune (secondary, top-tier): Javier Milei endorsed a memecoin that lost $4 billion — judge investigating for fraud (2025-02-18) https://fortune.com/crypto/2025/02/18/javier-milei-memecoin-libra-cryptocurrency-crash-argentina-federal-judge-investigation/ · Burwick Law (N.Y. class action case page): $M3M3 and $LIBRA Token Lawsuit: Hurlock v. Kelsier (2025-03) https://www.burwick.law/active-cases/m3m3-and-libra-token-lawsuit-hurlock-v-kelsier · CoinDesk: Milei linked to Libra probe through call logs (NYT findings from court documents) (2026-04-07) https://www.coindesk.com/business/2026/04/07/argentine-president-milei-s-call-logs-link-him-to-multimillion-dollar-libra-rug-pull-nyt
US regulatory shift — lawsuits dropped Market structure failure 2025-02 confidence 68
Change in regulator leadership ← Dropping of multiple major lawsuits ← Rule clarity debate
Root cause: Regulatory volatility with changing administrations keeps the sector without certainty
Outcome: A major American regulatory turn · Recovery: Easing
Contagion ← COINBASE-SEC-2023
Signals before failure: Governance risk
Unknowns: Long-term rule stabilization
Sources: 2025
Harvesting AI tokens — 2025 wave Fraud 2025-02 confidence 54
AI agent tokens with hype ← Seeded liquidity withdrawn ← Cascading collapses
Root cause: The agentic AI narrative is looting fuel in 2025
Outcome: Continued harvesting of the AI narrative · Recovery: None
Contagion ← GROKWARS-2024
Signals before failure: Narrative fragilityLiquidity concentration
Unknowns:
Sources: 2025
zkLend — StarkNet drain Protocol failure 2025-02 confidence 64
Rounding error in accumulation logic ← Minting of fake shares ← 9.5 million and shutdown
Root cause: Rounding errors remain fatal in every new environment
Outcome: The largest Exploit on StarkNet · Recovery: None approximately
Contagion ← ZKLEND-2025
Signals before failure: Single point of failure
Unknowns:
Sources: Feb 2025
Ionic — phantom collateral Protocol failure 2025-02 confidence 56
Acceptance of a fake token as collateral ← Borrowing against a phantom value ← 7 million
Root cause: Verifying collateral authenticity is a survival condition
Outcome: — · Recovery: None approximately
Contagion ← FORTUBE-2021
Signals before failure: Single point of failure
Unknowns:
Sources: Feb 2025 · Halborn: Explained: The Ionic Money Hack (February 2025) (2025-02) https://www.halborn.com/blog/post/explained-the-ionic-money-hack-february-2025 · Ionic Money (official): Ionic Mode Main Market Exploit Post Mortem (Feb. 8, 2025) (2025-02) https://postmortem.s3.us-east-1.amazonaws.com/postmortem.pdf · rekt.news: Ionic Money - Rekt (2025-02) https://rekt.news/ionic-money-rekt · SlowMist: SlowMist Monthly Security Report: February losses $1.681B (2025-03) https://slowmist.medium.com/slowmist-monthly-security-report-february-estimated-losses-at-1-681-billion-579101700ab5
Infini — abandoned admin key Fraud 2025-02 confidence 62
Admin privilege not revoked after development ← 50 million drain ← Prosecution
Root cause: A forgotten permission awaiting a malicious hand
Outcome: A lesson on revoking permissions after development · Recovery: Prosecution
Contagion ← INFINI-2025
Signals before failure: Custody opacitySingle point of failure
Unknowns:
Sources: Feb 2025
Bybit — largest theft in history Exchange failure 2025-02 confidence 78
Poisoning of the cold storage signing interface ← Transfer of 1.5 billion in ether ← Tracing and large-scale laundering
Root cause: Even cold custody falls if the signer is visually deceived
Outcome: The largest Breach in the sector's history ever · Recovery: Coverage and Compensation
Contagion ← BYBIT-2025
Signals before failure: Custody opacitySingle point of failure
Unknowns: The full laundering trail
Sources: Feb 2025
KuCoin — the federal plea Governance failure 2025-01 confidence 76
Charges of operating without a license ← Guilty plea and a $300M fine ← Exit from the U.S. market
Root cause: The price of years of deferred compliance is paid all at once
Outcome: Within the major wave of Settlements after Binance · Recovery: An orderly Settlement
Contagion ← No documented contagion
Signals before failure: Governance risk
Unknowns:
Sources: DOJ plea 2025
Phemex — multi-chain draining Exchange failure 2025-01 confidence 68
Hot wallet breach across numerous chains ← Loss of around $85 million ← Declared compensation and rebuilding
Root cause: A single hot signature over dozens of chains
Outcome: The opening of 2025's bloody year for the exchanges · Recovery: Declared
Contagion ← No documented contagion
Signals before failure: Custody opacitySingle point of failure
Unknowns:
Sources: Jan 2025
Nobitex — Paxful's heir bleeding Exchange failure 2025-01 confidence 62
Wallet breach of around $7 million ← Late confirmation after external analytics ← Declared compensation
Root cause: The acknowledgment came from the chain before management
Outcome: — · Recovery: Declared
Contagion ← No documented contagion
Signals before failure: Custody opacityNarrative fragility
Unknowns:
Sources: Jan 2025
Politically linked tokens — conflict of interest Governance failure 2025-01 confidence 60
Launch of tokens with a political connection ← Conflict of interest and disputes ← Sharp volatility and freezes
Root cause: Politicizing assets turns them into hostages of controversy
Outcome: The 2025 token politicization phenomenon · Recovery: Volatile
Contagion ← LIBRA-MEME-2025
Signals before failure: Narrative fragilityGovernance risk
Unknowns:
Sources: 2025
Political celebrity tokens — peak and dump Fraud 2025-01 confidence 62
Token launch with enormous hype ← Internal ownership concentration ← Dump onto the public
Root cause: A token with no product but the name is a wealth-transfer machine
Outcome: The peak of the celebrity-token economy · Recovery: Collapse
Contagion ← LIBRA-MEME-2025
Signals before failure: Liquidity concentrationNarrative fragility
Unknowns:
Sources: Jan 2025
Phemex — drain breakdown Exchange failure 2025-01 confidence 62
Multi-chain hot signing flaw ← Systematic drain ← Compensation and rebuild
Root cause: Unified hot-key architecture across chains is a compounded risk
Outcome: — · Recovery: Declared
Contagion ← PHEMEX-2025
Signals before failure: Custody opacitySingle point of failure
Unknowns:
Sources: Jan 2025
Moby — compromised options key Protocol failure 2025-01 confidence 54
Leak of a privileged key ← Drain of options positions ← 2.5 million and partial return
Root cause: Emerging options platforms inherit key risks
Outcome: — · Recovery: Partial
Contagion ← No documented contagion
Signals before failure: Custody opacitySingle point of failure
Unknowns:
Sources: Jan 2025
Superform — broken withdrawal logic Protocol failure 2025-01 confidence 52
Vulnerability in withdrawal logic ← Limited drain ← Patch
Root cause: Aggregating yields across chains adds vectors
Outcome: — · Recovery: Limited
Contagion ← LIFI-2024
Signals before failure: Single point of failure
Unknowns:
Sources: Jan 2025
Usual — de-peg from a terms change Stablecoin failure 2025-01 confidence 58
Sudden change of redemption terms ← Panic and de-peg ← Sharp governance debate
Root cause: Changing the Recovery rules without warning breaks trust instantly
Outcome: A lesson on Stabilizing the Recovery rules · Recovery: Partial
Contagion ← SUSD-2025
Signals before failure: Reserve mismatchGovernance risk
Unknowns:
Sources: Jan 2025
Meme factories — the systematic extraction pattern Market structure failure 2024-12 confidence 70
Launchpads enabling thousands of tokens daily ← An overwhelming share die within days ← Latecomers' liquidity is the cycle's fuel
Root cause: The structure itself turns speculation into a statistical extraction machine
Outcome: A structural phenomenon documented by the data, not an incident · Recovery: Ongoing
Contagion ← No documented contagion
Signals before failure: Narrative fragilityLiquidity concentration
Unknowns: The precise insider profit ratios
Sources: chain analytics 2024
The Mashinsky trial Fraud 2024-12 confidence 80
Charges of misleading customers ← Guilty plea ← Prison sentence
Root cause: The marketing rhetoric itself became the evidence of guilt
Outcome: The «people's banker» speeches in the indictment · Recovery: Late justice
Contagion ← CELSIUS-2022
Signals before failure: Governance risk
Unknowns:
Sources: DOJ 2024
zkSync — sequencer halt Infrastructure failure 2024-12 confidence 64
Flaw in the sequencer ← Hours-long network halt ← Resumption with no loss of funds
Root cause: All Layer 2s share the single-sequencer risk
Outcome: — · Recovery: Resumption
Contagion ← ARBITRUM-DEC-2023
Signals before failure: Single point of failure
Unknowns:
Sources: Dec 2024
MiCA — euro pressures stablecoins Market structure failure 2024-12 confidence 66
Strict European licensing requirements ← Delisting of non-compliant stablecoins ← Reordering of the European market
Root cause: Clear regulation itself redraws the stablecoin map
Outcome: The first comprehensive European stablecoin framework · Recovery: Adaptation
Contagion ← TETHER-NYAG-2021
Signals before failure: Governance risk
Unknowns:
Sources: Dec 2024
Annual drainer index — the tail of plunder Fraud 2024-12 confidence 58
Thousands of small drains ← Seeded liquidity withdrawn ← Wide distributed losses
Root cause: The long tail of looting exceeds the major catastrophes combined
Outcome: Archive of the quantitative looting tail · Recovery: Distributed losses
Contagion ← PUMPFUN-FLOOD-2024
Signals before failure: Liquidity concentrationNarrative fragility
Unknowns: The exact total volume
Sources: 2024 aggregated
The BNB memecoin wave, 2024 Fraud 2024-11 confidence 60
Serial meme launches with coordinated promotion ← Repeated liquidity pulls ← Accumulated sector-wide losses
Root cause: An industrial repetition of the Withdrawal pattern across dozens of tokens
Outcome: A documented regional pattern · Recovery: None
Contagion ← No documented contagion
Signals before failure: Narrative fragility
Unknowns: The coordinated networks behind the waves
Sources: trace 2024
Polter — a new fork's oracle Protocol failure 2024-11 confidence 60
Oracle manipulation on an emerging fork ← Inflated borrowing of 12 million ← Collapse of the project
Root cause: Launching a fork with an unhardened oracle is suicide
Outcome: — · Recovery: None
Contagion ← STURDY-2023
Signals before failure: Single point of failureLeverage expansion
Unknowns:
Sources: Nov 2024 · Decrypt: Crypto Lender Polter Finance Shuts Down After Hack (2024-11) https://decrypt.co/292080/crypto-lender-polter-finance-hack-drains-funds · Halborn: Explained: The Polter Finance Hack (November 2024) (2024-11) https://www.halborn.com/blog/post/explained-the-polter-finance-hack-november-2024 · Verichains: Polter Finance Attack — BOO Token Price Manipulation (2024-11) https://blog.verichains.io/p/polter-finance-attack-boo-token-price · CertiK: Polter Finance Incident Analysis (2024-11) https://www.certik.com/resources/blog/polter-finance-incident-analysis
DEXX — user keys on the server Fraud 2024-11 confidence 64
Centralized storage of private keys ← Mass leak and draining ← About 30 million
Root cause: A "decentralized" bot that stores your keys = disguised custody
Outcome: Exposed the risk of hidden custodial bots · Recovery: Partial
Contagion ← No documented contagion
Signals before failure: Custody opacity
Unknowns: Full scope of the leak
Sources: Nov 2024
AI token wars — harvesting the narrative Fraud 2024-11 confidence 56
A wave of purported AI-agent tokens ← Hype and inflows then a coordinated dump ← A series of rapid collapses
Root cause: Every trending tech wave is exploited for looting before it is understood
Outcome: An archive of looting in the AI-agents narrative · Recovery: None
Contagion ← GROK-LP-2024
Signals before failure: Narrative fragilityLiquidity concentration
Unknowns:
Sources: 2024-25 · CoinDesk: AI Agents Capture Attention as AiXBT, ai16z, and Virtuals Surge (2024-12-30) https://www.coindesk.com/markets/2024/12/30/ai-agents-capture-attention-as-ai-xbt-ai16z-and-virtuals-surge · Decrypt: Crypto's Latest Meta? AI Agent Tokens Skyrocket (2025-01-02) https://decrypt.co/299356/crypto-latest-meta-ai-agent-tokens-skyrocket · Chainalysis: 2025 Crypto Crime Trends (2025-01-15) https://www.chainalysis.com/blog/2025-crypto-crime-report-introduction/ · Solidus Labs: Solana Rug Pulls & Pump-and-Dumps (2025 Rug Pull Report) (2025-05) https://www.soliduslabs.com/reports/solana-rug-pulls-pump-dumps-crypto-compliance
TON — meme wave congestion Infrastructure failure 2024-11 confidence 58
Sudden activity surge ← Congestion and elevated fees ← Transaction delays
Root cause: Sudden growth exposes the limits of throughput
Outcome: — · Recovery: Stabilization
Contagion ← SOLANA-SEPT-2021
Signals before failure: Single point of failure
Unknowns:
Sources: Nov 2024
Tornado — ruling lifting sanctions Governance failure 2024-11 confidence 70
Legal challenge to code sanctions ← Ruling in favor of partial lifting ← Code liability debate remains open
Root cause: Can neutral code be punished? A question swinging Judicially
Outcome: An American direction opposite to the European Ruling · Recovery: Partial easing
Contagion ← TORNADO-SANCTIONS-2022
Signals before failure: Governance risk
Unknowns: The final standard
Sources: Nov 2024
Thala — farm logic exploit Protocol failure 2024-11 confidence 62
Bug in the farm contract ← 25 million drain ← Freeze and full return
Root cause: The immediate Freeze saved what was nearly lost
Outcome: A successful Containment model · Recovery: Repaid in Full
Contagion ← No documented contagion
Signals before failure: Single point of failure
Unknowns:
Sources: Nov 2024
Clober — order book logic Protocol failure 2024-11 confidence 50
Vulnerability in the order book contract ← Limited drain ← Patch
Root cause: On-chain order books carry breakable complexity
Outcome: — · Recovery: Limited
Contagion ← No documented contagion
Signals before failure: Single point of failure
Unknowns:
Sources: Nov 2024
dYdX — coordinated liquidation attack Market structure failure 2024-11 confidence 62
Position stacking in a thin token ← Coordinated liquidation hits the treasury ← Partial drain of the insurance fund
Root cause: Insurance funds are susceptible to Drain via a calculated Liquidation attack
Outcome: Exposing the Fragility of insurance funds · Recovery: Containment
Contagion ← DYDX-2023
Signals before failure: Liquidity concentrationLeverage expansion
Unknowns:
Sources: Nov 2024
Radiant — compromise of developer devices Protocol failure 2024-10 confidence 78
Malware on three developers' devices ← Blind signatures that appeared legitimate ← Contract replacement ← $53M drained
Root cause: A Breach of the human endpoints bypasses all contract security
Outcome: Attributed to Lazarus · Recovery: None approximately
Contagion ← No documented contagion
Signals before failure: Custody opacitySingle point of failure
Unknowns: Exactly how the malware was planted
Sources: post-mortem Oct 2024 · QuillAudits: Radiant Capital Hack Analysis (January 2024) (2024-01) https://www.quillaudits.com/blog/hack-analysis/radiant-capital-hack · Cointelegraph: Radiant Capital halts Arbitrum markets after reported $4.5M flash loan attack (2024-01-03) https://cointelegraph.com/news/radiant-capital-lending-protocol-flash-loan-attack-arbitrum · Cointelegraph: Radiant Capital begins debt repayment after $4.5M exploit (2024-01-23) https://cointelegraph.com/news/radiant-capital-begins-debt-repayment-after-4-5-million-flash-loan-exploit
M2 — the UAE's early wound Exchange failure 2024-10 confidence 64
$13.7 million breached from the hot wallet ← Rapid response and compensation ← Continued operation
Root cause: A startup takes an early hit and the protocol absorbs it
Outcome: — · Recovery: Full
Contagion ← No documented contagion
Signals before failure: Custody opacity
Unknowns:
Sources: Oct 2024
Radiant — the knockout blow Protocol failure 2024-10 confidence 70
Compromise of multisig keys ← Control over the market contracts ← Draining of 50 million and halt
Root cause: A second blow after the rounding Exploit ends the trust
Outcome: — · Recovery: None approximately
Contagion ← RADIANT-2024
Signals before failure: Custody opacitySingle point of failure
Unknowns:
Sources: Oct 2024 · crypto.news (CertiK monitoring): Radiant Capital hacker moves $10.8M into Tornado Cash (2024-10) https://crypto.news/radiant-capital-hacker-moves-10-8m-into-tornado-cash/ · Radiant Capital (official): Radiant Capital Post-Mortem (2024-10-17) https://medium.com/@RadiantCapital/radiant-post-mortem-fecd6cd38081 · The Record (Recorded Future News): North Korean hackers behind $50 million crypto heist of Radiant Capital (2024-12) https://therecord.media/radiant-capital-heist-north-korea · Radiant Capital / Mandiant: Radiant Capital Incident Update (2024-12-06) (2024-12-06) https://medium.com/@RadiantCapital/radiant-capital-incident-update-e56d8c23829e · CoinDesk: Radiant Capital Says North Korean Hackers Behind $50M Attack (2024-12-09) https://www.coindesk.com/tech/2024/12/09/radiant-capital-says-north-korean-hackers-behind-50-million-attack-in-october
Tapioca — compromised deployer key Protocol failure 2024-10 confidence 54
Leak of a deployer key ← Minting and drain ← 4.4 million and negotiation
Root cause: Deployment security equals the security of the whole protocol
Outcome: — · Recovery: Recovery
Contagion ← QANPLATFORM-2023
Signals before failure: Custody opacity
Unknowns:
Sources: Oct 2024
Cascading delisting — death of liquidity Liquidity failure 2024-10 confidence 56
Delisting of small tokens from platforms ← Evaporation of centralized liquidity ← Price collapse
Root cause: Relying on a single exchange listing makes delisting an execution Ruling
Outcome: Archive of liquidity death by delisting · Recovery: Collapse
Contagion ← No documented contagion
Signals before failure: Liquidity concentrationSingle point of failure
Unknowns:
Sources: 2024 aggregated
Penpie — reentrancy in the rewards Protocol failure 2024-09 confidence 72
Registering a malicious market ← Reentrancy on reward harvesting ← $27M stolen
Root cause: Open market listing + a missing reentrancy guard
Outcome: A blow to the surrounding Pendle ecosystem · Recovery: Partial, minimal
Contagion ← No documented contagion
Signals before failure: Single point of failure
Unknowns:
Sources: post-mortem Sep 2024
Trading bots — key leaks Protocol failure 2024-09 confidence 66
Telegram bots storing users' keys ← Hack/leak ← Traders' wallets drained
Root cause: Handing the keys to a bot = hot custody without governance
Outcome: A recurring pattern across several bots · Recovery: Partial Compensations Declared
Contagion ← No documented contagion
Signals before failure: Custody opacity
Unknowns: The precise attack vectors
Sources: disclosures Sep 2024 · Rekt News: Banana Gun - Rekt News (2024-09) https://rekt.news/bananagun-rekt · QuillAudits: Decoding How The Banana Gun Went Bananas: $3M Exploit (2024-09) https://www.quillaudits.com/blog/hack-analysis/banana-gun-exploit · The Block: Banana Gun promises to refund $3 million stolen from impacted users (2024-09-20) https://www.theblock.co/post/318074/banana-gun-exploit-refund · Cointelegraph: Telegram bot Banana Gun to absorb $3M loss from hack (2024-09-20) https://cointelegraph.com/news/banana-gun-crypto-bot-refunds-3m
Indodax — hack of the Indonesian exchange Exchange failure 2024-09 confidence 68
Hot wallet breach ← $22M stolen ← Attributed to Lazarus
Root cause: The North Korean pattern reaches the emerging markets
Outcome: Within the 2024 Asian chain · Recovery: Compensation Declared
Contagion ← No documented contagion
Signals before failure: Custody opacity
Unknowns:
Sources: trace Sep 2024
BingX — Singapore's hot wallet Exchange failure 2024-09 confidence 66
Breach of around $43 million ← Temporary suspension of withdrawals ← Declared compensation and resumption
Root cause: The same 2024 wave: hot, Asian, Lazarus suspected
Outcome: — · Recovery: Declared Full
Contagion ← No documented contagion
Signals before failure: Custody opacity
Unknowns:
Sources: Sep 2024
Onyx — an inherited rounding error Protocol failure 2024-09 confidence 64
Rounding error in an old Compound fork ← Minting of shares without an actual deposit ← About 3.8 million
Root cause: Copying code with a known vulnerability inherits the disaster
Outcome: The recurring "lazy fork" pattern · Recovery: None approximately
Contagion ← COMPOUND-2021
Signals before failure: Single point of failure
Unknowns:
Sources: Sep 2024 · Cointelegraph: Onyx protocol exploited a second time for $3.8M via known bug (2024-09) https://cointelegraph.com/news/onyx-protocol-exploited-second-time-3-8m-via-known-bug · The Daily Hodl (PeckShield data): Onyx Hacked for $3,800,000: PeckShield (2024-09-27) https://dailyhodl.com/2024/09/27/decentralized-web3-project-onyx-hacked-for-3800000-worth-of-crypto-peckshield/ · Halborn: Explained: The Onyx Protocol Hack (September 2024) (2024-10) https://www.halborn.com/blog/post/explained-the-onyx-protocol-hack-september-2024
NEAR — a short halt Infrastructure failure 2024-09 confidence 58
A temporary consensus flaw ← Block production halt ← A quick fix
Root cause: Even mature chains stumble at times
Outcome: — · Recovery: Resumption
Contagion ← No documented contagion
Signals before failure: Single point of failure
Unknowns:
Sources: 2024
Penpie — concentrated market re-entrancy Protocol failure 2024-09 confidence 62
Re-entrancy via a rewards market ← Drain of 27 million ← Freeze
Root cause: Forking protocols multiplies re-entry vectors
Outcome: — · Recovery: Partial freeze
Contagion ← PENPIE-2024
Signals before failure: Single point of failure
Unknowns:
Sources: Sep 2024
Banana Gun — bot is harvested Protocol failure 2024-09 confidence 56
Vulnerability in the bot contract ← Harvesting wallets ← 3 million
Root cause: Trading bots are perpetually dangerous spending permissions
Outcome: — · Recovery: Compensation
Contagion ← BANANA-GUN-2024
Signals before failure: Single point of failure
Unknowns:
Sources: Sep 2024 · QuillAudits: Decoding How The Banana Gun Went Bananas: $3M Exploit (2024-09) https://www.quillaudits.com/blog/hack-analysis/banana-gun-exploit · The Block: Banana Gun team investigates reports of user wallets being drained, Telegram bot offline (2024-09-19) https://www.theblock.co/post/317282/banana-gun-telegram-bot · Cointelegraph: Telegram bot Banana Gun's users drained of over $1.9M (2024-09-19) https://cointelegraph.com/news/telegram-bot-banana-gun-users-drained-500-ether · Invezz: Telegram-based trading bot Banana Gun hacked for 563 ETH; BANANA falls (2024-09-19) https://invezz.com/news/2024/09/19/telegram-based-trading-bot-banana-gun-hacked-for-563-eth-banana-token-falls/
Indodax — Indonesia's hot wallet Exchange failure 2024-09 confidence 60
Hot wallet breach ← Loss of about 22 million ← Suspension and compensation
Root cause: The 2024 wave: every major Asian platform is tested
Outcome: — · Recovery: Declared
Contagion ← INDODAX-2024
Signals before failure: Custody opacity
Unknowns:
Sources: Sep 2024 · Blockchain Intelligence Group: Top 10 Crypto Losses of 2024: Hacks, Frauds, and Exploits (2024) https://blockchaingroup.io/compliance-and-regulation/top-10-crypto-losses-of-2024-hacks-frauds-and-exploits/ · Halborn: Month in Review: Top DeFi Hacks of September 2024 (2024-09) https://www.halborn.com/blog/post/month-in-review-top-defi-hacks-of-september-2024 · Bitget News: Indodax Suffers $22 Million Crypto Breach, Suspected Lazarus Group Involvement (2024-09-11) https://www.bitget.com/news/detail/12560604205326 · The Crypto Basic: Indonesian Exchange Indodax Loses 25 BTC, 1,047 ETH and 6.14M USDT Worth $22M to Hackers (2024-09-11) https://thecryptobasic.com/2024/09/11/indonesian-exchange-indodax-loses-25-btc-1047-eth-and-6-14m-usdt-worth-22m-to-hackers/
Shezmu — phantom collateral Protocol failure 2024-09 confidence 52
Acceptance of fake collateral ← Minting a stablecoin without backing ← 5 million and negotiation
Root cause: Recurrence of the phantom-collateral flaw across projects
Outcome: — · Recovery: Partial
Contagion ← IONIC-2025
Signals before failure: Single point of failureReserve mismatch
Unknowns:
Sources: Sep 2024
Delta Prime — keys compromised twice Protocol failure 2024-09 confidence 54
Leak of privileged keys ← Repeated drain ← About 6 million
Root cause: Repeated key Breaches expose a deep operational flaw
Outcome: — · Recovery: Partial
Contagion ← RADIANT-2-2024
Signals before failure: Custody opacitySingle point of failure
Unknowns:
Sources: Sep 2024
Friend.tech — a social economy collapses Market structure failure 2024-09 confidence 58
Speculation on social shares ← Evaporation of activity and liquidity ← Value collapse and abandonment
Root cause: A social economy without sustainable value evaporates
Outcome: The death of the tokenized social media wave · Recovery: Abandonment
Contagion ← STEPN-2022
Signals before failure: Narrative fragilityLiquidity concentration
Unknowns:
Sources: 2024
Transfer restrictions — tokens without actual liquidity Liquidity failure 2024-09 confidence 50
Tokens distributed with transfer restrictions ← Nominal, not actual, liquidity ← Gap between paper value and liquid value
Root cause: A token that cannot be transferred is not liquid however high its valuation
Outcome: A lesson on the difference between valuation and liquidity · Recovery: Gap
Contagion ← No documented contagion
Signals before failure: Liquidity concentration
Unknowns:
Sources: 2024
Ronin again 2024 — the accidental white hat Bridge failure 2024-08 confidence 75
An upgrade that introduced a voting-threshold flaw ← An MEV bot withdrawing 12 million ahead of everyone ← Full return with a bounty
Root cause: The same Bridge breached in 2022 proves that upgrades reopen old wounds
Outcome: Saved by a bot faster than the thieves · Recovery: Full
Contagion ← RONIN-2022
Signals before failure: Bridge dependency
Unknowns:
Sources: post-mortem Aug 2024
Celsius — the clawback claims Treasury failure 2024-08 confidence 72
Clawback claims against customers who withdrew before the freeze ← A legal shock to depositors ← Class settlements
Root cause: Even the survivors of the Collapse were reached by its legal tails
Outcome: The bankruptcy lesson: an early Withdrawal is not a final escape · Recovery: Settlements
Contagion ← CELSIUS-2022
Signals before failure: Governance risk
Unknowns:
Sources: bankruptcy claims 2024
Chain of configuration errors 2024 Protocol failure 2024-08 confidence 62
Multisig with incorrect thresholds ← Forgotten permissions ← Miscellaneous incidents
Root cause: Complex security fails in its configuration, not in its cryptography
Outcome: The pattern of the correct contract with the wrong configuration · Recovery: Mixed
Contagion ← No documented contagion
Signals before failure: Governance risk
Unknowns:
Sources: aggregated 2024
Durov — an arrest that shakes TON Market structure failure 2024-08 confidence 74
Arrest of Telegram's founder in France ← A sharp drop in the TON token ← Travel restrictions and changes to the platform's policy
Root cause: An asset tied to one person trades as a hostage to his fate
Outcome: The purest test of "founder risk" · Recovery: Partial recovery
Contagion ← No documented contagion
Signals before failure: Single point of failureNarrative fragility
Unknowns: The case's final impact
Sources: FR Aug 2024
Ronin — a sandwich after the return Bridge failure 2024-08 confidence 66
Bridge-update flaw after relaunch ← Temporary exploit of 12 million ← Return by white-hat hackers
Root cause: Even after the biggest lesson, updates reopen the wounds
Outcome: The Rapid return of the funds softened the impact · Recovery: Recovery
Contagion ← RONIN-2022
Signals before failure: Single point of failure
Unknowns:
Sources: Aug 2024
Minterest — broken rewards logic Protocol failure 2024-08 confidence 54
Bug in rewards calculation ← Inflated withdrawal ← 1.4 million
Root cause: Complex reward systems are a hidden attack surface
Outcome: — · Recovery: Partial
Contagion ← No documented contagion
Signals before failure: Single point of failure
Unknowns:
Sources: Aug 2024
Phantom depth manipulation — spoof orders Market structure failure 2024-08 confidence 54
Repeated fake order walls ← Misleading depth readings ← Deliberate slippage
Root cause: Order book depth can be faked momentarily
Outcome: Archive of depth deception · Recovery: Ongoing
Contagion ← MEV-SANDWICH-2023
Signals before failure: market_structure_risk
Unknowns: Scope of the phenomenon
Sources: 2024
Renewable-lock loans — incentive fragility Liquidity failure 2024-08 confidence 52
Liquidity locked with emission incentives ← Its evaporation as incentives decline ← Unlock and withdrawal pressure
Root cause: Liquidity rented through emissions departs when they run out
Outcome: — · Recovery: Volatility
Contagion ← AERODROME-CONC-2024
Signals before failure: incentive_spiralLiquidity concentration
Unknowns:
Sources: 2024
WBTC — custody change controversy Liquidity failure 2024-08 confidence 60
Change in the custody arrangement of the wrapped asset ← Market concern and partial exodus ← Rise of alternatives
Root cause: Changing the custody of a wrapped asset shakes confidence in its liquidity
Outcome: Exposing the Fragility of trust in wrapped assets · Recovery: Partial shift
Contagion ← No documented contagion
Signals before failure: Custody opacityLiquidity concentration
Unknowns:
Sources: 2024
WazirX — the Indian multisig breach Exchange failure 2024-07 confidence 79
Manipulation of the signing interface ← Signing a malicious contract upgrade ← Withdrawal of 230 million ← A socialized-compensation dispute
Root cause: The signers trusted a displayed interface, not the actual payload — blind signing
Outcome: Attributed to Lazarus; a controversial "social discount" plan · Recovery: Partial, disputed
Contagion ← No documented contagion
Signals before failure: Custody opacitySingle point of failure
Unknowns: The liability of the participating custody provider
Sources: SG scheme filings 2024-2025 · Unchained: $230 Million WazirX Hack Potentially Linked to Lazarus Group, Say Blockchain Researchers (2024-07) https://unchainedcrypto.com/230-million-wazirx-hack-potentially-linked-to-lazarus-group-say-blockchain-researchers/ · Wikipedia: 2024 WazirX hack (2024-07) https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2024_WazirX_hack · Halborn: Explained: The WazirX Hack (July 2024) (2024-07) https://www.halborn.com/blog/post/explained-the-wazirx-hack-july-2024 · YourStory: Singapore court sets aside June 4 order for WazirX parent's restructuring scheme (2025-07) https://yourstory.com/2025/07/singapore-court-aside-order-zettai-restructuring-scheme-wazirx · WazirX (Zettai Pte Ltd): Singapore Court Sanctions Zettai's Creditor-Approved Restructuring Scheme (2025-08) https://wazirx.com/blog/singapore-court-sanctions-wazirx-restructuring-scheme/
Mt. Gox distributions — the deferred supply shock Market structure failure 2024-07 confidence 72
Start of distributing 140,000 BTC after a decade ← Market fear of selling ← Actual gradual absorption
Root cause: An old corpse moves today's market — fear of the supply is stronger than the supply
Outcome: The market absorbed the largest historic distribution with relative calm · Recovery: An orderly event
Contagion ← MTGOX-2014
Signals before failure: Narrative fragility
Unknowns: The recipients' ultimate behavior
Sources: trustee records 2024
Morpho — a poisoned frontend, not the contract Protocol failure 2024-07 confidence 62
Breach of the site frontend, not the contract ← Routing of approvals to a malicious contract ← Limited user losses
Root cause: Contract security is not enough if the front end is poisoned
Outcome: Rapid containment and alert · Recovery: Limited
Contagion ← No documented contagion
Signals before failure: Single point of failure
Unknowns:
Sources: Jul 2024
LI.FI — aggregation with a call vulnerability Protocol failure 2024-07 confidence 62
Arbitrary call via the aggregation contract ← Harvesting of wallets with pending approvals ← 10 million
Root cause: Aggregation contracts concentrate the approvals attack surface
Outcome: — · Recovery: Partial
Contagion ← SOCKET-2024
Signals before failure: Single point of failure
Unknowns:
Sources: Jul 2024 · BlockSec (MetaSleuth): Illicit Fund Flow Case Study: LI.FI Attack (2024-07) https://blocksec.com/blog/illicit-fund-flow-case-study-lifi-attack-metasleuth · Three Sigma: LI.FI Protocol Exploit: How Another $9 Million Was Drained (2024-07) https://threesigma.xyz/blog/exploit/lifi-9m-protocol-exploit-analysis · LI.FI (official): LI.FI Security Incident Report — 16th July (2024-07) https://li.fi/knowledge-hub/incident-report-16th-july/ · SolidityScan (CredShields): Li.Fi Hack Analysis (2024-07) https://blog.solidityscan.com/li-fi-hack-analysis-521388128d22/
Compound — treasury takeover proposal Governance failure 2024-07 confidence 64
Voting cluster passes a treasury transfer ← Governance attack debate ← Retreat under pressure
Root cause: Vote concentration threatens even well-established protocols
Outcome: It nearly became the largest legitimate governance takeover · Recovery: Retreat
Contagion ← BUILDFINANCE-2022
Signals before failure: Governance risk
Unknowns:
Sources: Jul 2024
Doo Finance — unverified call Protocol failure 2024-07 confidence 56
Unverified call parameter ← Harvesting approvals ← 1.8 million
Root cause: Every Unverified call parameter is a potential vulnerability
Outcome: — · Recovery: None approximately
Contagion ← LIFI-2024
Signals before failure: Single point of failure
Unknowns:
Sources: Jul 2024
WazirX — cold treasury breached Exchange failure 2024-07 confidence 70
Breach of a multisig wallet ← Drain of 230 million ← Suspension and ownership dispute
Root cause: Even multisig falls to refined social engineering
Outcome: The largest Indian Breach and a prolonged Recovery crisis · Recovery: Pending
Contagion ← WAZIRX-2024
Signals before failure: Custody opacitySingle point of failure
Unknowns: Breach details
Sources: Jul 2024
Aerodrome — Base liquidity concentration Liquidity failure 2024-07 confidence 52
Liquidity concentrated in a single incentive ← Fragility when incentives change ← Volatility
Root cause: Incentive-driven liquidity flees when the incentives flee
Outcome: — · Recovery: Volatility
Contagion ← VELODROME-2023
Signals before failure: Liquidity concentrationincentive_spiral
Unknowns:
Sources: 2024 · The Block: Aerodrome leads TVL surge on Base to near $1 billion (2024-03-27) https://www.theblock.co/post/284601/aerodrome-base-tvl · Messari: A Valuation of Aerodrome (2024-09) https://messari.io/report/a-valuation-of-aerodrome · The Block: Aerodrome tops $1 billion in deposits, dominating DeFi on Base (2024-10) https://www.theblock.co/post/319258/aerodrome-tops-1-billion-in-deposits-dominating-defi-on-base
Vesting cliffs — periodic supply shocks Liquidity failure 2024-07 confidence 50
End of lockup periods all at once ← Concentrated supply shock ← Sharp momentary drop
Root cause: A single-cliff vesting is more violent than gradual flow
Outcome: Archive of cliff shocks · Recovery: Instantaneous drop
Contagion ← STARKNET-UNLOCK-2024
Signals before failure: Liquidity concentration
Unknowns:
Sources: 2024 aggregated
UwU — the fragile oracle legacy Protocol failure 2024-06 confidence 71
Oracle reading from a manipulable curve ← Flash loan distorts the price ← 20 million theft ← Tied to a founder's burdened reputation
Root cause: Cloning an oracle pattern that had previously killed protocols
Outcome: A repetition of the pattern, number twenty · Recovery: Partial
Contagion ← No documented contagion
Signals before failure: Liquidity concentration
Unknowns:
Sources: post-mortem Jun 2024
Velodrome/Velocore — the operator keys Protocol failure 2024-06 confidence 70
Operational keys compromised ← ZK pools drained ← $6.9M
Root cause: Operating keys over live pools
Outcome: Halted a Full chain temporarily for Containment · Recovery: Partial
Contagion ← No documented contagion
Signals before failure: Custody opacity
Unknowns:
Sources: post-mortem Jun 2024
BtcTurk — Turkey's hot wallet Exchange failure 2024-06 confidence 70
Hot wallet breach of numerous coins ← Loss of around $55 million ← Partial freeze and cross-platform cooperation
Root cause: Cold reserves protected the large deposits
Outcome: Binance cooperation froze millions of it · Recovery: Partial
Contagion ← No documented contagion
Signals before failure: Custody opacity
Unknowns:
Sources: Jun 2024
Terra — the four-and-a-half-billion settlement Fraud 2024-06 confidence 80
A jury verdict of civil fraud ← A $4.47 billion settlement ← The dismantling of Terraform Labs
Root cause: The largest civil crypto Settlement up to then
Outcome: Closing of the U.S. civil chapter · Recovery: Distributed Liquidation
Contagion ← TERRA-2022
Signals before failure: Governance risk
Unknowns: The actual recovery rate
Sources: SEC Jun 2024
Gera and its likes — deferred liquidity harvesting Fraud 2024-06 confidence 54
Liquidity nominally locked with a grace period ← Withdrawal the moment the lock expires ← Immediate collapse
Root cause: Temporary liquidity lock is a promise of later looting
Outcome: Archive of the "liquidity lock" deception · Recovery: None
Contagion ← SEAMAN-2023
Signals before failure: Liquidity concentrationCustody opacity
Unknowns:
Sources: 2024 aggregated
Pump.fun — the instant-launch economy Market structure failure 2024-06 confidence 62
Frictionless token launching ← Millions of short-lived tokens ← Most of them die within hours
Root cause: When launching becomes free, death becomes the rule
Outcome: Documentation of the mass-launch phenomenon · Recovery: An Ongoing phenomenon
Contagion ← GHIBLI-MEME-2025
Signals before failure: Narrative fragilityLiquidity concentration
Unknowns: The true survivor rate
Sources: 2024 · Cointelegraph (Dune data): Pump.fun memecoins are dying at record rates, less than 1% survive (2025-03) https://cointelegraph.com/news/pump-fun-memecoins-are-dying-at-record-rates-less-than-1-survive · The Block: Pump.fun sees rapid decline in graduating tokens (2025-03) https://www.theblock.co/post/343742/pump-fun-rapid-decline-graduating-tokens-memecoin-frenzy-fizzles-out · Solidus Labs: Solana Rug Pulls & Pump-and-Dumps (2025 Rug Pull Report) (2025-05) https://www.soliduslabs.com/reports/solana-rug-pulls-pump-dumps-crypto-compliance · BeInCrypto (Dune data): Pump.fun Users Lose Big: 60% of Traders Suffer Losses (2025-07) https://beincrypto.com/pump-fun-trading-data-majority-lose-money/
Linea — halt after exploit Infrastructure failure 2024-06 confidence 60
Protocol exploit on the network ← Sequencer halted to contain damage ← Centralization debate
Root cause: Halting the layer two for Exploit Containment exposes centralized control
Outcome: Recurrence of the centralized-halt dilemma · Recovery: Resumption
Contagion ← BSC-HALT-2022
Signals before failure: Single point of failure
Unknowns:
Sources: Jun 2024 · Unchained: Consensys' Linea Briefly Halts Block Production After $6.8M Velocore Exploit (2024-06) https://unchainedcrypto.com/consensys-linea-briefly-halts-block-production-after-6-8-million-velocore-dex-exploit/ · The Block: Linea reaffirms decentralization plan after deliberately pausing block production (2024-06) https://www.theblock.co/post/298062/linea-decentralization-velocore-hack · CryptoSlate: Linea under scrutiny for unilateral block production halt (2024-06) https://cryptoslate.com/linea-under-scrutiny-for-unilateral-block-production-halt-amid-velocore-hack/ · Neptune Mutual: Taking a Closer Look at Velocore Exploit (2024-06) https://medium.com/neptune-mutual/taking-a-closer-look-at-velocore-exploit-f029df18cbe5 · Velocore (official): Velocore Incident Post-Mortem (2024-06) https://velocorexyz.medium.com/velocore-incident-post-mortem-6197020ec3e9
UwU Lend — the second round Protocol failure 2024-06 confidence 62
Repeated oracle manipulation ← Drain of 20 million ← Governance pressure
Root cause: A protocol exploited twice loses its reason to exist
Outcome: — · Recovery: Partial
Contagion ← UWU-2024
Signals before failure: Single point of failureLeverage expansion
Unknowns:
Sources: Jun 2024
Rho Markets — another fork bleeds Protocol failure 2024-06 confidence 54
Vulnerability in a lending fork ← Limited drain ← Freeze
Root cause: Spawning forks spawns vulnerabilities
Outcome: — · Recovery: Partially returned
Contagion ← ONYX-2024
Signals before failure: Single point of failure
Unknowns:
Sources: 2024
crvUSD — Curve liquidation pressure Stablecoin failure 2024-06 confidence 60
Decline in the collateralized governance token price ← Collateral liquidation pressure ← Temporary solvency concern
Root cause: Tying lending to the governance token's price creates a fragile loop
Outcome: A resilience test of the Curve model · Recovery: Containment
Contagion ← CRV-2023
Signals before failure: Reserve mismatchLeverage expansion
Unknowns:
Sources: Jun 2024
Blast — airdrop and lock controversy Governance failure 2024-06 confidence 56
Locking user funds before launch ← Disappointing airdrop ← Sharp criticism and exit
Root cause: Locking funds early against a distribution promise is a perilous bet
Outcome: The 2024 distributions controversy · Recovery: Slowdown
Contagion ← EIGENLAYER-DROP-2024
Signals before failure: Narrative fragilityGovernance risk
Unknowns:
Sources: Jun 2024 · Cointelegraph: Blast's marketing approach 'cheapens the work of a serious team' — Paradigm (2023-11) https://cointelegraph.com/news/blast-marketing-cheapens-work-serious-team-paradigm · Decrypt: Paradigm Says Blast Launch 'Crossed Lines' as Users Lock Up $535 Million (2023-11) https://decrypt.co/207548/paradigm-says-ethereum-layer-2-blast-launch-crossed-lines-users-lock-up-535-million · Decrypt: Blast Deposits Top $1.1 Billion Ahead of L2 Launch and Airdrop (2024-02) https://decrypt.co/211107/blast-deposits-top-1-1-billion-ahead-ethereum-l2-launch-airdrop · Decrypt: Blast Airdrop Puts $354 Million in Wallets — So Why Are They Mad? (2024-06) https://decrypt.co/237127/ethereum-layer-2-blast-airdrop-354-million-why-upset · Cointelegraph: Blast airdrop to launch June 26, distributing 17% of supply (2024-06) https://cointelegraph.com/news/blast-airdrop-june-26-distributing-17-percent-early-users
Drainer kits — the phishing industry Fraud 2024-06 confidence 62
Ready-made drainer services for rent ← Mass signature phishing campaigns ← Hundreds of millions annually
Root cause: Phishing-as-a-service industrialization multiplied signature harvesting
Outcome: Archive of the draining industry · Recovery: Widespread losses
Contagion ← BADGER-FRONT-2021
Signals before failure: Custody opacitySingle point of failure
Unknowns:
Sources: 2024
Points economy — promised value not realized Market structure failure 2024-06 confidence 54
Attracting liquidity with a vague points promise ← Inflated airdrop expectations ← Disappointment and mass exit
Root cause: Points are an Opaque promise that attracts fleeting temporary liquidity
Outcome: The death of the points-economy cycle · Recovery: Exit
Contagion ← BLAST-AIRDROP-2024
Signals before failure: Narrative fragilityincentive_spiral
Unknowns:
Sources: 2024
DMM Bitcoin — a record Japanese breach Exchange failure 2024-05 confidence 78
Theft of 4,500 Bitcoin (300 million) ← Suspicion of a software supply-chain breach ← Compensation backed by the parent group ← Closure of the platform
Root cause: Breach attributed to social engineering against an external developer
Outcome: Attributed to Lazarus; the platform shut down and migrated customers · Recovery: Full Compensation from the group
Contagion ← No documented contagion
Signals before failure: Custody opacitySingle point of failure
Unknowns: The exact point of breach in the supply chain
Sources: FBI/NPA joint attribution 2024
Sonne — the forty governance minutes Protocol failure 2024-05 confidence 73
Upgrading markets via a time-lock ← Open execution window ← Injecting an empty market with the famous Compound rounding vulnerability ← 20 million theft
Root cause: The rounding vulnerability inherited from Compound v2 strikes another clone
Outcome: The inherited pattern struck several clones · Recovery: None approximately
Contagion ← No documented contagion
Signals before failure: Governance riskSingle point of failure
Unknowns:
Sources: post-mortem May 2024
Gala — the mysterious insider mint Protocol failure 2024-05 confidence 73
5B tokens minted from an authorized address ← A portion sold before the freeze ← Conflicting explanations of a "hack" ← Remainder burned
Root cause: Mint authority in the hands of a single address — and the official narrative remained opaque
Outcome: Most recovered and burned · Recovery: Near-complete
Contagion ← No documented contagion
Signals before failure: Custody opacityGovernance risk
Unknowns: Internal or external? The official narrative is inconclusive — fundamentally unknown
Sources: on-chain trace May 2024
Protocol insiders — pre-launch trading Fraud 2024-05 confidence 74
Employee exploiting listing knowledge ← Systematic front-running ← Internal and judicial conviction
Root cause: The first explicit insider-trading convictions in the sector
Outcome: A reference enforcement precedent · Recovery: Justice
Contagion ← No documented contagion
Signals before failure: Governance risk
Unknowns:
Sources: DOJ insider cases
Pertsev — a developer behind bars Governance failure 2024-05 confidence 78
Trial of a Tornado Cash developer in the Netherlands ← A money-laundering conviction of 64 months ← A chill through the developer community
Root cause: The code-author's liability for its uses — an open question answered harshly
Outcome: A European precedent contrary to the later U.S. sanctions-lifting trend · Recovery: Resumption
Contagion ← TORNADO-SANCTIONS-2022
Signals before failure: Governance risk
Unknowns: The ultimate benchmark for developer liability
Sources: NL May 2024
EigenLayer — an airdrop that burns trust Governance failure 2024-05 confidence 62
Controversial airdrop terms and geographic restrictions ← Sale restrictions and sharp criticism ← Late adjustments
Root cause: Poor distribution design burns an enormous trust balance
Outcome: The biggest distribution controversy in the restaking wave · Recovery: Partial adjustment
Contagion ← No documented contagion
Signals before failure: Narrative fragilityGovernance risk
Unknowns:
Sources: May 2024
Poisoned RPC wave — malicious routing Infrastructure failure 2024-05 confidence 58
Poisoned public access points ← Routing of transactions to malicious contracts ← Scattered harvesting of wallets
Root cause: Trusting an unknown access point equals a blind signature
Outcome: An archive of public access-point risk · Recovery: Scattered
Contagion ← No documented contagion
Signals before failure: Single point of failureCustody opacity
Unknowns: The full scope
Sources: 2024 aggregated
Normie — harvest via the bridge Fraud 2024-05 confidence 52
Exploit of token minting logic ← 99% collapse ← Negotiated relaunch
Root cause: Fragile meme tokens attract harvesters
Outcome: — · Recovery: Relaunch
Contagion ← No documented contagion
Signals before failure: Single point of failureNarrative fragility
Unknowns:
Sources: May 2024
DMM Bitcoin — a Japanese ending Exchange failure 2024-05 confidence 74
Breach of 305 million in Bitcoin ← Compensation from the parent company ← Decision to close and hand over accounts
Root cause: A major loss ends even a platform backed by a strong group
Outcome: Attributed to Lazarus; the largest Japanese Breach since Coincheck · Recovery: Orderly shutdown
Contagion ← DMM-2024
Signals before failure: Custody opacity
Unknowns:
Sources: 2024
Gala — minting a billion from the inside Protocol failure 2024-05 confidence 66
Compromised internal minting privilege ← Minting in the billions and partial dump ← Freeze and burn
Root cause: Internal mint permission is a perpetual existential risk
Outcome: Rapid containment prevented a larger catastrophe · Recovery: Containment
Contagion ← GALA-2024
Signals before failure: Single point of failureCustody opacity
Unknowns:
Sources: May 2024
Address poisoning — a single copy error Fraud 2024-05 confidence 58
Look-alike addresses in the transaction history ← Erroneous copy from the history ← Millions transferred in error
Root cause: A user's trust in their own history is a behavioral vulnerability
Outcome: Archive of address-similarity attacks · Recovery: Large individual losses
Contagion ← No documented contagion
Signals before failure: Custody opacity
Unknowns:
Sources: 2024
Metis and other layers — sequencer halt Infrastructure failure 2024-05 confidence 50
Centralized sequencer failure ← Transaction halt ← Resumption
Root cause: Every layer two shares the single-sequencer risk
Outcome: Archive of sequencer halts · Recovery: Resumption
Contagion ← LINEA-PAUSE-2024
Signals before failure: Single point of failure
Unknowns:
Sources: 2024
Restaking loops — hidden leverage Liquidity failure 2024-05 confidence 54
Repeated restaking of the same asset ← Hidden effective leverage ← Fragility upon de-peg
Root cause: Reusing an asset as collateral repeatedly is hidden leverage
Outcome: A warning about hidden restaking leverage · Recovery: Fragility
Contagion ← RENZO-DEPEG-2024
Signals before failure: Leverage expansionLiquidity concentration
Unknowns:
Sources: 2024
Optimism sequencer outage Market structure failure 2024-04 confidence 68
Sequencer node bug ← Batch production halt ← Recovery within an hour
Root cause: The single sequencer once again
Outcome: Reinforced the decentralization map · Recovery: Recovery Rapid
Contagion ← ARBITRUM-SEQ-2023
Signals before failure: Single point of failure
Unknowns:
Sources: status Apr 2024
Samourai — a wallet in the indictment Governance failure 2024-04 confidence 74
Arrest of the founders of a mixing wallet ← Charge of unlicensed money transmission ← Shutdown of the service and developer controversy
Root cause: Criminalizing privacy tools precedes settling the debate around them
Outcome: Deepened the migration of privacy developers · Recovery: Judicial Ongoing
Contagion ← TORNADO-SANCTIONS-2022
Signals before failure: Governance risk
Unknowns: The final legal standard
Sources: DOJ Apr 2024
CZ — four months Fraud 2024-04 confidence 80
Guilty plea to anti-money-laundering violations ← Sentence of four months in prison ← Exit from management with retention of ownership
Root cause: The lightest Ruling on the sector's largest compliance concession
Outcome: — · Recovery: Execution and expiry
Contagion ← BINANCE-DOJ-2023
Signals before failure: Governance risk
Unknowns:
Sources: sentencing Apr 2024
Renzo — the ezETH de-peg Liquidity failure 2024-04 confidence 62
Thin exit liquidity for the restaking token ← A sharp momentary de-peg ← Cascading leveraged liquidations
Root cause: Restaking tokens inherit the Fragility of liquid-staking liquidity
Outcome: Warned of the restaking liquidity bubble · Recovery: Partial recovery
Contagion ← STETH-DEPEG-2022
Signals before failure: Liquidity concentrationLeverage expansion
Unknowns:
Sources: Apr 2024 · Protos: Depeg of $3B restaking token ezETH causes over $60M in DeFi liquidations (2024-04) https://protos.com/depeg-of-3b-restaking-token-ezeth-causes-over-60m-in-defi-liquidations/ · The Defiant: Renzo Updates Airdrop Terms After Explosive ezETH Depeg (2024-04) https://thedefiant.io/news/defi/renzo-updates-airdrop-terms-after-explosive-ezeth-depeg · Blockworks: What was behind the run on Renzo's liquid restaked ETH? (2024-04) https://blockworks.com/news/renzo-liquid-staked-eth · CoinDesk: Renzo Restaked ETH Suffers a Brief Crash on Uniswap (2024-04-24) https://www.coindesk.com/markets/2024/04/24/renzo-restaked-eth-suffers-a-brief-crash-on-uniswap · Renzo Protocol (X): Renzo statement: ezETH withdrawals scheduled for May 2024 (2024-04-28) https://x.com/RenzoProtocol/status/1784754969129705968
StarkNet — halt of block production Infrastructure failure 2024-04 confidence 62
Flaw in the block producer ← Temporary network halt ← Fix and resumption
Root cause: Layer 2 maturity is measured by recovery time
Outcome: — · Recovery: Resumption
Contagion ← No documented contagion
Signals before failure: Single point of failure
Unknowns:
Sources: Apr 2024
Pike Finance — forged cross-chain messages Protocol failure 2024-04 confidence 56
Forgery of cross-chain messages ← Phantom minting and borrowing ← 1.6 million
Root cause: Verifying the source of cross-chain messages is critical
Outcome: — · Recovery: None approximately
Contagion ← LEVANA-2023
Signals before failure: Single point of failure
Unknowns:
Sources: Apr 2024
Hedgey — claims logic Protocol failure 2024-04 confidence 60
Vulnerability in claim and lock contracts ← Drain of 44 million ← Freeze and negotiation
Root cause: Distribution-scheduling contracts carry permission vulnerabilities
Outcome: — · Recovery: Partial
Contagion ← No documented contagion
Signals before failure: Single point of failure
Unknowns:
Sources: Apr 2024
Gaming networks — validator concentration Infrastructure failure 2024-04 confidence 50
Validation nodes concentrated in few hands ← Decentralization concern ← Expansion campaign
Root cause: Declared decentralization is often broader than reality
Outcome: — · Recovery: Improvement
Contagion ← PRYSM-DOMINANCE-2023
Signals before failure: Single point of failure
Unknowns:
Sources: 2024
Wormhole — airdrop and initial liquidity Market structure failure 2024-04 confidence 52
Large airdrop and partial lock ← Early selling pressure ← Sharp volatility
Root cause: Even major infrastructures face distribution pressure
Outcome: — · Recovery: Gradual Stabilization
Contagion ← WORMHOLE-2022
Signals before failure: Narrative fragilityLiquidity concentration
Unknowns:
Sources: 2024
Saga and its peers — inflated initial valuation Market structure failure 2024-04 confidence 56
Enormous fully diluted valuation at launch ← Tiny floating liquidity ← Long gradual collapse
Root cause: An inflated fully-diluted valuation with a tiny float creates a slow Bleed
Outcome: Archive of the "low float, high valuation" model · Recovery: Bleed
Contagion ← No documented contagion
Signals before failure: Liquidity concentrationNarrative fragility
Unknowns:
Sources: 2024
Major token unlocks — supply pressure Liquidity failure 2024-04 confidence 54
Massive periodic unlock schedules ← Repeated selling pressure ← Extended price bleed
Root cause: Known incoming supply remains an inevitable deferred pressure
Outcome: Archive of unlock pressure 2024 · Recovery: Bleed
Contagion ← SAGA-LAUNCH-2024
Signals before failure: Liquidity concentration
Unknowns:
Sources: 2024 aggregated · The Block: StarkWare delays first token unlocks to April 2024 (2023-10-03) https://www.theblock.co/post/254142/ethereum-starkware-token-unlocks-delay · CoinDesk: Starknet's STRK Drops 53% Amid Token Issuance Criticism (2024-02-21) https://www.coindesk.com/markets/2024/02/21/starknets-strk-drops-53-amid-token-issuance-criticism · CoinDesk: STRK Jumps After StarkWare Agrees to Delay Token Unlocks (2024-02-22) https://www.coindesk.com/tech/2024/02/22/starknets-strk-jumps-after-developer-starkware-agrees-to-delay-token-unlocks · Tokenomist: Starknet (STRK) Tokenomics & Vesting Schedule (2024-04-15) https://tokenomist.ai/starknet
Prisma — the migration vulnerability Protocol failure 2024-03 confidence 70
A migration function with no validation ← $11M drained ← Partial-recovery negotiation
Root cause: Infrastructure functions are forgotten by the audit
Outcome: Within the 2024 wave of Exploits · Recovery: Partial
Contagion ← No documented contagion
Signals before failure: Single point of failure
Unknowns:
Sources: post-mortem Mar 2024
The SBF verdict Fraud 2024-03 confidence 88
Convicted on seven counts ← 25-year sentence ← $11B in forfeitures
Root cause: A Judicial conclusion to the largest fraud in the sector
Outcome: A reference precedent for the penalties · Recovery: Record Recoveries
Contagion ← FTX-2022
Signals before failure: Governance risk
Unknowns:
Sources: sentencing Mar 2024
Worldcoin — iris scanning under ban Governance failure 2024-03 confidence 72
Iris data collected in exchange for a token ← Suspensions and bans in numerous countries ← Fines and forced adjustments
Root cause: Biometric privacy for a free distribution — a deal the regulators rejected
Outcome: A test of the limits of "identity for a token" · Recovery: Ongoing adaptation
Contagion ← No documented contagion
Signals before failure: Governance riskNarrative fragility
Unknowns: Fate of the collected databases
Sources: KE/ES/HK orders
Mango round two — trust not regained Protocol failure 2024-03 confidence 58
Exploit of new liquidation logic ← Limited drain after the relaunch ← Governance pressure
Root cause: The exploited protocol carries a structural stigma
Outcome: — · Recovery: Partial
Contagion ← MANGO-2022
Signals before failure: Single point of failure
Unknowns:
Sources: 2024
Base — launch wave congestion Infrastructure failure 2024-03 confidence 56
Wave of new tokens ← Fee spike and congestion ← Gradual improvement
Root cause: Layer twos inherit the pressure of sudden demand
Outcome: — · Recovery: Stabilization
Contagion ← No documented contagion
Signals before failure: Single point of failure
Unknowns:
Sources: Mar 2024
Munchables — planted developer Fraud 2024-03 confidence 66
Developer linked to a suspicious party ← Planted backdoor ← Withdrawal of 62 million then returned
Root cause: Hiring a developer of unknown background plants the bomb yourself
Outcome: A rare case of Full return after pressure · Recovery: Repaid in Full
Contagion ← KOKOMO-2023
Signals before failure: Custody opacity
Unknowns:
Sources: Mar 2024
Prisma — admin contract drained Protocol failure 2024-03 confidence 60
Vulnerability in the delegation contract ← Position drain ← 11 million
Root cause: Complex delegation contracts hide subtle vectors
Outcome: — · Recovery: Partial negotiation
Contagion ← PRISMA-2024
Signals before failure: Single point of failure
Unknowns:
Sources: Mar 2024
New derivatives protocols — seasonal liquidity Liquidity failure 2024-03 confidence 48
Liquidity driven by points campaigns ← Its evaporation at the campaign's end ← Volume fluctuation
Root cause: Incentive-driven volumes vanish when the incentives end
Outcome: — · Recovery: Volatility
Contagion ← AERODROME-CONC-2024
Signals before failure: incentive_spiralLiquidity concentration
Unknowns:
Sources: 2024 · KuCoin: AEVO Announces Buyback Amid the Market Downturn (2024) https://www.kucoin.com/news/articles/aevo-announces-buyback-amid-the-market-downturn · The Block: Aevo offers pre-market trading for its own token ahead of upcoming airdrop (2024-03) https://www.theblock.co/post/281350/aevo-offers-pre-market-trading-for-its-own-token-ahead-of-upcoming-airdrop · CCN: AEVO Price Falls to New All-Time Low as 750% Token Unlock Balloons Circulating Supply (2024-05) https://www.ccn.com/analysis/crypto/aevo-price-all-time-low-token-unlock-circulating-supply/
Solana — February 2024 outage Market structure failure 2024-02 confidence 78
Bug in handling legacy software ← Five-hour outage ← Coordinated emergency upgrade
Root cause: Legacy code haunts the networks
Outcome: The last documented Full halt before the era of Stabilization · Recovery: Recovery Full
Contagion ← SOLANA-OUTAGES-2022
Signals before failure: Single point of failure
Unknowns:
Sources: post-mortem Feb 2024
HashFlare — mining without miners Fraud 2024-02 confidence 78
$577 million in cloud mining contracts sold ← Actual capacity below 1% ← Fake dashboards and a guilty plea
Root cause: Selling numbers on a screen in the name of mining
Outcome: Among the largest cloud-mining rulings · Recovery: Large Seizures
Contagion ← No documented contagion
Signals before failure: Artificial yieldCustody opacity
Unknowns:
Sources: DOJ plea 2024
Binance Nigeria — employee held hostage to the case Governance failure 2024-02 confidence 74
Protocol accused of attacking the local currency ← Detention of visiting executives ← One escapes, the other tried for months
Root cause: When compliance negotiations turn into the detention of people
Outcome: The most dangerous precedent for the sector's field employees · Recovery: Release after months
Contagion ← BINANCE-DOJ-2023
Signals before failure: Governance risk
Unknowns:
Sources: NG 2024 · U.S. House Foreign Affairs Committee: McCaul, McCormick & Colleagues Urge the State Department to Intervene in the Wrongful Detention of Tigran Gambaryan (2024) https://foreignaffairs.house.gov/news/press-releases/mccaul-mccormick-colleagues-urge-the-state-department-intervene-in-the-wrongful-detention-tigran-gambaryan · DL News: Binance financial crime head held in a 'guest house' in Nigeria for two weeks (2024-03) https://www.dlnews.com/articles/regulation/binance-execs-held-for-two-weeks-in-nigeria-without-charge/ · CoinDesk: Nigeria Invited, Then Detained Binance's Compliance Head and Africa Manager for Two Weeks (2024-03-12) https://www.coindesk.com/policy/2024/03/12/nigeria-invited-then-detained-binances-compliance-head-and-africa-manager-for-two-weeks-reports · The Record (Recorded Future News): Nigerian court drops charges against detained Binance executive Tigran Gambaryan (2024-10) https://therecord.media/nigerian-court-drops-charges-tigran-gambaryan-binance-executive
Solana — February 2024 outage Infrastructure failure 2024-02 confidence 68
Bug in handling non-finalized code ← Five-hour outage ← Upgrade and fix
Root cause: Maturity is measured by the Retreat in halt frequency
Outcome: Solana's last major halt · Recovery: Resumption
Contagion ← SOLANA-OUTAGES-2022
Signals before failure: Single point of failure
Unknowns:
Sources: Feb 2024
Bitforex — a silent exit Fraud 2024-02 confidence 58
Sudden withdrawal halt ← Suspicious outflows ← Disappearance of management
Root cause: Sudden silence is the classic Exit signature
Outcome: — · Recovery: None approximately
Contagion ← AAX-2022
Signals before failure: Custody opacity
Unknowns: Fate of the funds
Sources: Feb 2024
Orbit Chain — the bloody New Year Bridge failure 2024-01 confidence 74
Compromise of 7 of 10 signers ← Withdrawal of 81 million ← A link to the Klaytn ecosystem
Root cause: A compromised signer majority — failed key engineering
Outcome: Attributed to Lazarus, likely · Recovery: None approximately
Contagion ← No documented contagion
Signals before failure: Bridge dependencyCustody opacity
Unknowns: How were 7 keys compromised together?
Sources: trace reports Jan 2024 · The Block: Orbit Chain's bridge reportedly hacked for $81.5 million (2024-01) https://www.theblock.co/post/269809/orbit-chains-bridge-reportedly-hacked-for-81-5-million · Halborn: Explained: The Orbit Bridge Hack (December 2023) (2024-01-08) https://www.halborn.com/blog/post/explained-the-orbit-bridge-hack-december-2023 · Orbit Chain / Ozys: Official Statement Regarding 'Orbit Bridge Exploit' (2024-01-25) https://medium.com/orbit-chain/official-statement-regarding-orbit-bridge-exploit-551928f3dc52 · Cointelegraph (Arkham data): Orbit Chain hacker moves $48M to Tornado Cash (2024-06) https://cointelegraph.com/news/orbit-chain-hacker-moves-nearly-48-million-via-tornado-cash
Orbiter and its peers — the small-bridge incidents Bridge failure 2024-01 confidence 62
A chain of small-bridge incidents ← Fragile keys and contracts ← Scattered losses
Root cause: The long tail of bridges falls silently
Outcome: A sector pattern, not a single incident · Recovery: Mixed
Contagion ← ORBIT-2024
Signals before failure: Bridge dependency
Unknowns:
Sources: aggregated 2024
HyperVerse — the pyramid metaverse Fraud 2024-01 confidence 72
Daily returns across rebranded platforms ← $1.7 billion over years ← A CEO with a fabricated identity
Root cause: When the CEO himself is an invented Persona
Outcome: The most famous pseudonymous-identity scandal · Recovery: Prosecutions
Contagion ← No documented contagion
Signals before failure: Artificial yieldNarrative fragility
Unknowns: The full network of beneficiaries
Sources: SEC/DOJ 2024
Socket — an open approval harvested Bridge failure 2024-01 confidence 64
Verification flaw in an updated contract ← Harvesting of wallets holding approvals ← 3.3 million
Root cause: A contract update without sufficient audit opens the approvals vulnerability
Outcome: Partial recovery Rapid · Recovery: Partial
Contagion ← RUBIC-2022
Signals before failure: Single point of failure
Unknowns:
Sources: Jan 2024 · Halborn: Explained: The Socket Protocol Hack (January 2024) (2024-01) https://www.halborn.com/blog/post/explained-the-socket-protocol-hack-january-2024 · Rekt News: Socket - REKT (2024-01) https://rekt.news/socket-rekt · Beosin: Socket Protocol Falls Victim to Hacker's Call Injection Attack, Resulting in Approximately $3.3 Million Theft (2024-01) https://beosin.com/resources/socket-protocol-falls-victim-to-hackers-call-injection-attack-resulting-in-approximately-33-million%C2%A0theft · The Block: Socket says it recovered 1,032 ETH following Bungee exploit last week (2024-01) https://www.theblock.co/post/273964/socket-ether-recovery-bungee-exploit · DL News: Hacker swipes $3.3m from Bungee crypto bridge users by exploiting contract bug (2024-01-16) https://www.dlnews.com/articles/defi/hacker-swipes-33m-from-bungee-crypto-bridge-users/
Orbit Chain — the signers' keys Bridge failure 2024-01 confidence 66
Compromise of a majority of the signing keys ← Draining of 80 million ← Korean investigation
Root cause: A multisig does not protect if its majority is compromised
Outcome: — · Recovery: Weak
Contagion ← ORBIT-2024
Signals before failure: Custody opacitySingle point of failure
Unknowns: How the signers were compromised
Sources: Jan 2024 · Blockworks: $80M lost in first hack of 2024 (2024-01) https://blockworks.co/news/80-million-lost-orbit-bridge · Bank Info Security (ISMG): Cryptohack Roundup: Orbit Chain's $81M New Year's Eve Hack (2024-01) https://www.bankinfosecurity.com/cryptohack-roundup-orbit-chains-81m-new-years-eve-hack-a-24028 · Halborn: Explained: The Orbit Bridge Hack [shared with FAIL-ORBIT-2024] (2024-01-08) https://www.halborn.com/blog/post/explained-the-orbit-bridge-hack-december-2023 · Orbit Chain / Ozys: Official Statement Regarding 'Orbit Bridge Exploit' [shared] (2024-01-25) https://medium.com/orbit-chain/official-statement-regarding-orbit-bridge-exploit-551928f3dc52
Abracadabra — a new cauldron round Protocol failure 2024-01 confidence 62
Flaw in the cauldron logic ← MAGIC minting without backing ← 6.5 million
Root cause: The complexity of renewing vaults opens renewing vulnerabilities
Outcome: A third wound for a single ecosystem · Recovery: Partial
Contagion ← MIM-2022
Signals before failure: Single point of failure
Unknowns:
Sources: Jan 2024 · Crypto Briefing: Abracadabra suffers $6.5M exploit, MIM crashes to $0.76 (2024-01-30) https://cryptobriefing.com/abracadabra-finance-suffers-6-5-million-exploit-mim-stablecoin-crashes-076/ · Cointelegraph: Abracadabra's $6.49M loss leads to MIM destabilization (2024-01-30) https://cointelegraph.com/news/abracadabra-s-6-49m-loss-leads-to-mim-stablecoin-destabilization · Unchained: MIM Loses Peg After $6.5M Exploit on Ethereum Cauldrons (2024-01-30) https://unchainedcrypto.com/mim-loses-peg-after-6-5-million-exploit-on-abracadabra-ethereum-cauldrons/ · Distributed Networks Institute: Abracadabra Money Suffers $6.5M Loss Due to Smart Contract Exploit (2024-01-31) https://dn.institute/research/cyberattacks/incidents/2024-01-31-abracadabra-money/ · Extropy.IO: Breaking Down the $6.5M Abracadabra Hack: Cauldron V4 Exploit (2024-02) https://extropy-io.medium.com/breaking-down-the-6-5m-abracadabra-money-hack-a-detailed-analysis-of-the-cauldron-v4-exploit-44100da10896
Grok and its kin — harvesting of hype tokens Fraud 2024-01 confidence 56
A wave of tokens mimicking trending names ← Seeded liquidity withdrawn immediately ← A series of small exit operations
Root cause: Every trending narrative spawns an army of loot tokens
Outcome: An archive of the small loot tail · Recovery: None
Contagion ← No documented contagion
Signals before failure: Narrative fragilityLiquidity concentration
Unknowns:
Sources: 2024 aggregated · Cointelegraph: Grok memecoin falls 74% on creator scam claim (2023-11) https://cointelegraph.com/news/elon-musk-ai-memecoin-grok-falls-creator-scam-claim · The Block: Memecoin of Elon Musk's Grok surges over 1,000% (2023-11) https://www.theblock.co/post/262885/memecoin-of-elon-musks-grok-surges-over-1000-nearly-a-week-after-its-inception · CoinDesk: GROK Dumps 50% as Links to Failed Projects Halt Rally (2023-11-14) https://www.coindesk.com/markets/2023/11/14/grok-dumps-50-as-scammer-links-halts-ai-inspired-tokens-rally · Check Point Research: Unraveling the Rug Pull: a Million-Dollar Scam with a Fake Token Factory (2023-11-21) https://research.checkpoint.com/2023/check-point-research-unraveling-the-rug-pull-a-million-dollar-scam-with-a-fake-token-factory/
Systematic front-running — a single bot army Market structure failure 2024-01 confidence 62
An operator dominating Solana sandwiching ← Millions extracted weekly ← Debate over a protocol-level ban
Root cause: Value extraction concentrated in few hands threatens network fairness
Outcome: Stirred the anti-sandwich debate on Solana · Recovery: Ongoing
Contagion ← MEV-SANDWICH-2023
Signals before failure: market_structure_riskLiquidity concentration
Unknowns:
Sources: 2024
Gamma — distorted liquidity management Protocol failure 2024-01 confidence 56
Distortion of the rebalancing timing ← Extraction of value from the positions ← About 3.4 million
Root cause: Rebalancing algorithms are vulnerable to timing Exploits
Outcome: — · Recovery: Partial
Contagion ← VISOR-2021
Signals before failure: Single point of failure
Unknowns:
Sources: Jan 2024
payUSD — thin initial liquidity Stablecoin failure 2024-01 confidence 54
Launch with limited secondary liquidity ← Slight price slippage ← Gradual growth
Root cause: Even institutional stablecoins begin with fragile liquidity
Outcome: — · Recovery: Stabilization
Contagion ← No documented contagion
Signals before failure: Liquidity concentration
Unknowns:
Sources: 2024
Jupiter and its peers — post-airdrop pressure Liquidity failure 2024-01 confidence 50
Massive airdrop ← Immediate selling pressure ← Volatility before stabilization
Root cause: Every large distribution is a predictable supply wave
Outcome: — · Recovery: Stabilization
Contagion ← STARKNET-UNLOCK-2024
Signals before failure: Liquidity concentration
Unknowns:
Sources: 2024
Ledger Connect Kit — the supply-chain poison Protocol failure 2023-12 confidence 80
Compromise of a former employee's NPM account ← Injection of malicious code into a front-end library ← Draining approvals across numerous apps for hours ← Rapid containment
Root cause: A single library across thousands of front-ends = the attack surface of the entire sector
Outcome: Limited damage (600 thousand) but the lesson is structural · Recovery: Declared compensation
Contagion ← No documented contagion
Signals before failure: Single point of failure
Unknowns: The full scope of the compromised accounts
Sources: post-mortem Dec 2023
Arbitrum outages — the single sequencer Market structure failure 2023-12 confidence 74
An inscriptions wave swamps the sequencer ← Batch production halt ← Over an hour of paralysis ← The known centralization point confirmed
Root cause: A layer-two with a single sequencer = a Declared centralized tail
Outcome: The sequencer-decentralization roadmap accelerated · Recovery: Recovery Rapid
Contagion ← No documented contagion
Signals before failure: Single point of failure
Unknowns:
Sources: status reports Dec 2023 · Dedaub: Arbitrum Sequencer Outage — Root Cause Analysis (2023-12) https://dedaub.com/blog/arbitrum-sequencer-outage/ · CoinDesk: Arbitrum Hit by 'Partial Outage' Due to Traffic Surge (2023-12-15) https://www.coindesk.com/tech/2023/12/15/arbitrum-hit-by-partial-outage-due-to-traffic-surge · Arbitrum (status.arbitrum.io): Sequencer & Feed Issues (Arbitrum One) — Incident details (2023-12-15) https://status.arbitrum.io/clq6te1l142387b8n5bmllk9es
Arbitrum — the December sequencer halt Infrastructure failure 2023-12 confidence 68
A sudden surge of demand on the sequencer ← Hours-long transaction halt ← Resumption with no loss of funds
Root cause: The central sequencing point remains the bottleneck
Outcome: A reminder of sequencer centralization in Layer 2 · Recovery: Resumption
Contagion ← ARBITRUM-SEQ-2023
Signals before failure: Single point of failure
Unknowns:
Sources: Dec 2023 · The Block: Arbitrum says all systems operational after 'surge of inscriptions' outage (2023-12-15) https://www.theblock.co/post/267950/arbitrum-says-all-systems-are-operational-after-surge-of-inscriptions-caused-outage-earlier-in-day · Arbitrum (status.arbitrum.io): Sequencer & Feed Issues (Arbitrum One) — Incident details (2023-12-15) https://status.arbitrum.io/clq6te1l142387b8n5bmllk9es · Arbitrum / Offchain Labs: Arbitrum official post-incident summary (X) (2023-12-21) https://x.com/arbitrum/status/1737944347390173395
HECO Bridge and HTX — the double November hole Bridge failure 2023-11 confidence 73
A coordinated breach of the bridge and the exchange together ← Withdrawal of 87+30 million ← Declared compensation from the owner
Root cause: A key structure shared across the group's entities
Outcome: A pattern of recurring Breaches within the same group's orbit · Recovery: Declared
Contagion ← No documented contagion
Signals before failure: Custody opacitySingle point of failure
Unknowns: The structural relationship between the group's treasuries
Sources: trace Nov 2023
Kyber — the most precise mathematical exploit Protocol failure 2023-11 confidence 79
Fine engineering of concentrated-tick boundaries ← Tricking the curve at a boundary point ← $47M drained ← Arrogant demands from the exploiter
Root cause: A computational-precision flaw at the edges of the liquidity ranges
Outcome: Described as the most technically complex DeFi Exploit · Recovery: Partial; Compensation from the treasury
Contagion ← No documented contagion
Signals before failure: Single point of failure
Unknowns: Perpetrator unknown
Sources: post-mortem Nov 2023
SafeMoon — the moon stolen from the inside Fraud 2023-11 confidence 80
Sell fees collected as "locked" liquidity ← Upgrade privileges used to pull from it ← Federal charges against the founders ← A concurrent external exploit in 2023
Root cause: The «locked» liquidity was held by management keys the whole time
Outcome: Fraud charges and a guilty plea from one of the defendants · Recovery: None approximately
Contagion ← No documented contagion
Signals before failure: Custody opacityNarrative fragility
Unknowns: Distribution of the drained funds among the founders
Sources: DOJ/SEC charges 2023 · TRM Labs: DOJ Unseals Indictment In Fraudulent Crypto Scheme SafeMoon (2023-11) https://www.trmlabs.com/resources/blog/doj-unseals-indictment-in-fraudulent-crypto-scheme-safemoon · U.S. DOJ EDNY: Founders and Executives of Digital-Asset Company Charged (2023-11-01) https://www.justice.gov/usao-edny/pr/founders-and-executives-digital-asset-company-charged-multi-million-dollar · U.S. SEC: SEC Charges SafeMoon and its Executive Team (PR 2023-229) (2023-11-01) https://www.sec.gov/newsroom/press-releases/2023-229 · U.S. DOJ EDNY: SafeMoon CEO Found Guilty in Crypto-Fraud Scheme (2025-05) https://www.justice.gov/usao-edny/pr/chief-executive-officer-digital-asset-company-found-guilty-multi-million-dollar-crypto · U.S. DOJ EDNY: SafeMoon CEO Sentenced to 100 Months in Prison (2026-02-10) https://www.justice.gov/usao-edny/pr/ceo-digital-asset-company-safemoon-sentenced-100-months-prison-multi-million-dollar
dYdX — the targeted YIELD attack Liquidity failure 2023-11 confidence 76
Huge positions opened on a thin asset ← Instant price manipulation ← $9M insurance fund liquidated
Root cause: Instant oracle + thin asset + leverage = fund Drain
Outcome: Changed the margin standards for thin assets · Recovery: The fund absorbed it
Contagion ← No documented contagion
Signals before failure: Liquidity concentrationLeverage expansion
Unknowns: The attacker's identity despite broad public tracing
Sources: dydx report Nov 2023
Binance — the $4B settlement Governance failure 2023-11 confidence 88
Admission of anti-money-laundering violations ← $4.3B fine ← Founder steps down from management and is later imprisoned ← External compliance monitoring
Root cause: The largest platform pays the largest Settlement and stays alive — the lesson of orderly survival
Outcome: Changed the entire sector's relationship with US regulation · Recovery: Continuity under monitoring
Contagion ← No documented contagion
Signals before failure: Governance riskCustody opacity
Unknowns: The internal-monitoring details
Sources: DOJ settlement Nov 2023 · U.S. DOJ Criminal Division: United States v. Binance Holdings Limited — case page with plea documents (2023-11) https://www.justice.gov/criminal/case/united-states-v-binance-holdings-limited-dba-binancecom · U.S. Department of Justice: Binance and CEO Plead Guilty to Federal Charges in $4B Resolution (2023-11-21) https://www.justice.gov/archives/opa/pr/binance-and-ceo-plead-guilty-federal-charges-4b-resolution · CFTC: Binance and CZ Agree to Pay $2.85 Billion (CFTC Release 8825-23) (2023-11-21) https://www.cftc.gov/PressRoom/PressReleases/8825-23 · FinCEN: FinCEN Announces Largest Settlement in U.S. Treasury Department History with Binance (2023-11-21) https://www.fincen.gov/news/news-releases/fincen-announces-largest-settlement-us-treasury-department-history-virtual-asset · U.S. Treasury OFAC: Settlement Agreement between OFAC and Binance Holdings, Ltd. (2023-11-21) https://ofac.treasury.gov/system/files/2023-11/20231121_binance.pdf · CFTC / N.D. Ill.: Federal Court Enters Order Against Binance and Zhao (CFTC Release 8837-23) (2023-12-18) https://www.cftc.gov/PressRoom/PressReleases/8837-23
Poloniex — systematic draining Exchange failure 2023-11 confidence 70
Multi-chain key breach ← Loss of around $126 million ← Compensation promises from the owner
Root cause: Legacy key infrastructure under new ownership
Outcome: Preceded the Heco Bridge Breach by weeks — an ecosystem pattern · Recovery: Partial
Contagion ← HECO-2023
Signals before failure: Custody opacitySingle point of failure
Unknowns: The link between the two breaches
Sources: Nov 2023 · The Register: Justin Sun offers 5% deal to $120M Poloniex crypto-robbers (2023-11-10) https://www.theregister.com/security/2023/11/10/justin_sun_poloniex/ · CertiK: Poloniex Incident Analysis (2023-11-15) https://www.certik.com/blog/poloniex-incident-analysis · Halborn: Explained: The Poloniex Hack (November 2023) (2023-11-17) https://www.halborn.com/blog/post/explained-the-poloniex-hack-november-2023 · The Block: The 10 largest crypto hacks and exploits of 2023 (2023-12) https://www.theblock.co/post/268831/the-10-largest-crypto-hacks-and-exploits-of-2023
Heco — an ecosystem bridge bleeds Bridge failure 2023-11 confidence 70
Leak of the Heco bridge keys ← Draining of 87 million ← Coinciding with Poloniex
Root cause: A single ecosystem's key infrastructure falls all at once
Outcome: Evidence of unified key control across entities · Recovery: Partial
Contagion ← POLONIEX-2023
Signals before failure: Custody opacitySingle point of failure
Unknowns:
Sources: Nov 2023
KyberSwap — concentrated liquidity logic Protocol failure 2023-11 confidence 70
Exploit of a mathematical edge case in concentrated liquidity ← Drain of 48 million ← Public bounty dispute
Root cause: Concentrated liquidity is sharp math susceptible to Exploit
Outcome: Among the most complex mathematical Exploits · Recovery: None approximately
Contagion ← KYBER-2023
Signals before failure: Single point of failureLiquidity concentration
Unknowns:
Sources: Nov 2023
EZ Bitcoin — a Canadian custodian diverts to gambling Fraud 2023-11 confidence 60
Diverting client funds to gambling sites ← False claim of a breach ← Regulatory ruling
Root cause: Claiming a Breach is a common cover for embezzlement
Outcome: — · Recovery: Ruling
Contagion ← EINSTEIN-2019
Signals before failure: Custody opacity
Unknowns:
Sources: 2023
USDR — real estate cannot be redeemed instantly Stablecoin failure 2023-10 confidence 77
most of it guaranteed Tokenized real estate ← Withdrawals drain the liquid reserves ← Illiquid collateral remains ← Depeg to 50 cents
Root cause: An instant Recovery promise atop assets that do not liquidate instantly — a textbook maturity mismatch
Outcome: A gradual asset distribution plan · Recovery: Partial
Contagion ← No documented contagion
Signals before failure: Reserve mismatchLiquidity concentration
Unknowns: Real-estate valuation at the moment of crisis
Sources: depeg records Oct 2023
LastPass — stolen vaults bleed crypto Protocol failure 2023-10 confidence 70
Breach of password vaults in 2022 ← Decryption of stored recovery phrases ← A wave of wallet drains spanning years
Root cause: Storing the Recovery phrase in a password manager moved the risk, did not cancel it
Outcome: Researchers linked hundreds of millions in thefts to it · Recovery: Near None
Contagion ← No documented contagion
Signals before failure: Custody opacitySingle point of failure
Unknowns: The full list of victims
Sources: researcher tracing 2023-24
Unibot — the trading bot is breached Protocol failure 2023-10 confidence 60
Vulnerability in the bot's approvals contract ← Harvesting of user wallets ← 640 thousand
Root cause: Trading bots carry dangerous spending permissions
Outcome: Declared compensation · Recovery: Partial
Contagion ← No documented contagion
Signals before failure: Single point of failure
Unknowns:
Sources: Oct 2023
Aptos — a five-hour halt Infrastructure failure 2023-10 confidence 60
Flaw in transaction processing ← Block production halt ← Resumption
Root cause: New chains pay the maturity tax in outages
Outcome: — · Recovery: Resumption
Contagion ← No documented contagion
Signals before failure: Single point of failure
Unknowns:
Sources: Oct 2023
USDR — the illiquid real estate Stablecoin failure 2023-10 confidence 70
Backing by illiquid real estate and a governance token ← Depletion of the liquid portion ← Peg collapse of 50%
Root cause: Illiquid real-world assets cannot back a momentary peg
Outcome: A lesson on real-world asset liquidity · Recovery: Collapse
Contagion ← USDR-2023
Signals before failure: Liquidity concentrationReserve mismatch
Unknowns:
Sources: Oct 2023
Mixin — the cloud database Bridge failure 2023-09 confidence 73
Breach of a cloud provider's database ← Access to hot keys ← Theft of 200 million ← Partial compensation in bonds
Root cause: A "decentralized" network storing its keys in a single cloud database
Outcome: Among the largest Breaches of 2023 · Recovery: Partial in bonds
Contagion ← No documented contagion
Signals before failure: Custody opacitySingle point of failure
Unknowns: The actual custody architecture before the breach
Sources: announcements 2023
Fortress and Mixin — kindred cases Exchange failure 2023-09 confidence 68
Cloud-based custody architecture ← External point of failure ← Centralized loss
Root cause: A repeat of the cloud custody pattern
Outcome: Within the same 2023 wave · Recovery: Partial
Contagion ← MIXIN-2023
Signals before failure: Custody opacity
Unknowns:
Sources: reports 2023
The Three Arrows Capital (3AC) founders — the long flight Governance failure 2023-09 confidence 74
Evading judicial liquidation ← Launching a controversial new project ← Arrest of one of them in Singapore
Root cause: The temporary escape worsens the anger of creditors and regulators
Outcome: The post-Collapse chapter · Recovery: Prosecutions Ongoing
Contagion ← 3AC-2022
Signals before failure: Governance risk
Unknowns:
Sources: court records 2023 · CoinDesk: Three Arrows Founders Hit With 9-Year Trading Ban in Singapore (2022-09-14) https://www.coindesk.com/policy/2022/09/14/three-arrows-founders-hit-with-9-year-trading-ban-in-singapore · CoinDesk: Bankrupt Crypto Hedge Fund 3AC's Su Zhu Apprehended in Singapore, Liquidator Says (2023-09-29) https://www.coindesk.com/policy/2023/09/29/bankrupt-crypto-hedge-fund-3acs-su-zhu-apprehended-in-singapore · TechCrunch: Three Arrows Capital co-founder Zhu arrested in Singapore airport, sentenced four months in prison (2023-09-29) https://techcrunch.com/2023/09/29/three-arrows-capital-co-founder-zhu-arrested-in-singapore-airport-sentenced-four-months-in-prison/ · The Seattle Times / NYT: A founder of the crypto hedge fund Three Arrows Capital is arrested (2023-09-30) https://www.seattletimes.com/business/a-founder-of-the-crypto-hedge-fund-three-arrows-capital-is-arrested/
CoinEx — leaked keys Exchange failure 2023-09 confidence 72
Leak of multi-chain hot keys ← Loss of around $70 million ← Attributed to Lazarus and declared compensation
Root cause: Multiple keys in a single compromised environment
Outcome: — · Recovery: Declared compensation
Contagion ← No documented contagion
Signals before failure: Custody opacity
Unknowns:
Sources: attribution Sep 2023
HTX — $30 million and a job offer Exchange failure 2023-09 confidence 68
$30 million hot wallet breach ← A public offer for the attacker to stay on as an advisor ← Partial recovery
Root cause: Managing the crisis through spectacle instead of transparency
Outcome: Part of a single ecosystem's chain of wounds · Recovery: Partial
Contagion ← HUOBI-FUD-2023
Signals before failure: Custody opacityNarrative fragility
Unknowns:
Sources: Sep 2023
Stake — a casino under fire Exchange failure 2023-09 confidence 72
$41 million hot wallet breach ← Immediate continued operation ← Official US attribution to Lazarus
Root cause: Gambling margins covered a loss that would have killed a trading platform
Outcome: A rare explicit federal designation · Recovery: Self Full
Contagion ← No documented contagion
Signals before failure: Custody opacity
Unknowns:
Sources: FBI Sep 2023
Fortress Trust — the custodian rescued by acquisition Exchange failure 2023-09 confidence 68
$15 million breach via a third-party provider ← Conflicting accounts about the coverage ← A swift acquisition closing the file
Root cause: A licensed custodian rescued by the acquirer, not by its balance sheet
Outcome: The second Nevada custodian to falter in a single summer · Recovery: Via acquisition
Contagion ← PRIMETRUST-2023
Signals before failure: Custody opacity
Unknowns: The real coverage details
Sources: Sep 2023
JPEX — the Hong Kong scandal Fraud 2023-09 confidence 72
Massive influencer marketing ← Sudden prohibitive withdrawal fees ← Raids and arrests over $190 million
Root cause: An Opaque license + influencers = a mass trap
Outcome: Shook Hong Kong's confidence with its crypto promotional campaign · Recovery: Judicial
Contagion ← No documented contagion
Signals before failure: Artificial yieldNarrative fragility
Unknowns: The actual operating network
Sources: HK SFC 2023
Kannagi — a zkSync rug Fraud 2023-09 confidence 58
A backdoor in the contract ← Full draining after gathering liquidity ← Disappearance of the team
Root cause: A Planted backdoor from the beginning awaiting the harvest
Outcome: — · Recovery: None
Contagion ← No documented contagion
Signals before failure: Custody opacity
Unknowns: Team identity
Sources: Sep 2023
Levana — draining via messaging Protocol failure 2023-09 confidence 56
Exploit of a cross-chain messaging mechanism ← Gradual draining of positions ← 1.1 million
Root cause: Cross-chain communication opens slow hidden vectors
Outcome: — · Recovery: Partial
Contagion ← No documented contagion
Signals before failure: Single point of failure
Unknowns:
Sources: Sep 2023
GHO — Aave stablecoin de-peg Stablecoin failure 2023-09 confidence 62
Stablecoin launch with a nascent peg mechanism ← Chronic trading below the dollar ← Successive parameter adjustments
Root cause: Even the strongest protocols struggle to stabilize a new stablecoin
Outcome: A lesson on the difficulty of stabilizing a new peg · Recovery: Gradual recovery
Contagion ← No documented contagion
Signals before failure: Reserve mismatch
Unknowns:
Sources: 2023
Exactly — the deceived deposit bridge Protocol failure 2023-08 confidence 71
Passing a fake market contract via the deposit intermediary ← Bypassing the permission check ← $7M stolen
Root cause: An intermediary trusting an unverified parameter
Outcome: Continued after the loss · Recovery: Partial
Contagion ← No documented contagion
Signals before failure: Single point of failure
Unknowns:
Sources: post-mortem Aug 2023
Balancer — the boostable-pools vulnerability Protocol failure 2023-08 confidence 72
Vulnerability in specific pools ← Gradual exploit ← Partial drain despite prior warnings
Root cause: A public warning preceded the Exploit and the liquidity did not exit Full
Outcome: The lesson of slow liquidity migration even under warning · Recovery: Partial
Contagion ← No documented contagion
Signals before failure: Liquidity concentration
Unknowns:
Sources: advisories Aug 2023
Curve liquidity crisis — the founder's loan collateralized by his token Liquidity failure 2023-07 confidence 84
A Vyper vulnerability strikes Curve pools ← Token decline ← A massive founder loan collateralized by the token itself ← Risk of a liquidation spiral ← Rescue via private deals
Root cause: The token's largest collateral is the protocol's own token held by its founder — dangerous reflexivity
Outcome: Survived through private sale deals to investors · Recovery: Gradual full Recovery
Contagion ← No documented contagion
Signals before failure: Liquidity concentrationLeverage expansionGovernance risk
Unknowns: The full terms of the private deals were not all published
Sources: Vyper post-mortem Jul 2023 · on-chain loan records
Multichain — the founder vanishing with the keys Bridge failure 2023-07 confidence 82
The bridge keys held by the founder alone ← His arrest in China ← Opaque outflows of 1.5 billion ← Full halt and disappearance
Root cause: A "decentralized" Bridge with a single person's key whom a state arrested — and the protocol vanished
Outcome: Stranded assets and entire chain communities harmed · Recovery: Near None
Contagion ← No documented contagion
Signals before failure: Custody opacitySingle point of failureBridge dependency
Unknowns: The nature of the final flows: seizure, exploit, or exit? A fundamental unknown
Sources: on-chain outflow records Jul 2023 · Chainalysis: Multichain Exploit: Possible hack or rug pull (2023-07) https://www.chainalysis.com/blog/multichain-exploit-july-2023/ · CoinDesk (secondary): Multichain Bridges Exploited for Nearly $130M (2023-07-06) https://www.coindesk.com/business/2023/07/06/multichain-bridges-experience-unannounced-outflows-of-over-130m-in-crypto · Bloomberg (secondary, top-tier): Crypto Bridge Multichain Shuts Down, Says Chinese Police Arrested CEO Zhaojun (2023-07-14) https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2023-07-14/crypto-bridge-multichain-shuts-down-says-chinese-police-arrested-ceo · Fantom Foundation: Fantom Foundation Awarded Default Judgement Against Multichain (2024-03-04) https://blog.fantom.foundation/fantom-foundation-awarded-default-judgement-against-multichain/
Poly Network again — minting across 34 chains Bridge failure 2023-07 confidence 76
Keys compromised two years after the first hack ← Phantom billions minted across 57 assets ← Limited actual liquidity capped the damage
Root cause: The same Bridge, the same lesson: the keys were not addressed at the root
Outcome: Actual damage ~10 million despite the astronomical mint · Recovery: Partial
Contagion ← POLY-2021
Signals before failure: Custody opacityBridge dependency
Unknowns: How did the keys stay fragile months after the first hack?
Sources: trace Jul 2023
Vyper vulnerability — reentrancy returns Protocol failure 2023-07 confidence 84
Vyper compiler bug in specific versions ← Reentrancy lock fails to work ← $70M drained from Curve pools ← Partial white-hat recovery
Root cause: Trust in the compiler itself — a layer deeper than the contract
Outcome: Shook the entire lending market via Curve collateral · Recovery: Large Partial
Contagion ← CRV-2023
Signals before failure: Single point of failureLiquidity concentration
Unknowns: Full range of affected versions at the time of the event
Sources: post-mortems Jul 2023 · LlamaRisk (HackMD): Curve Pool Reentrancy Exploit Postmortem July 30th, 2023 (2023-08) https://hackmd.io/@LlamaRisk/BJzSKHNjn · Halborn: Explained: The Vyper Bug Hack (July 2023) (2023-08) https://www.halborn.com/blog/post/explained-the-vyper-bug-hack-july-2023 · CertiK: Vyper Incident Analysis (2023-08) https://www.certik.com/blog/vyper-incident-anaylsis · Vyper team (official HackMD): Vyper Nonreentrancy Lock Vulnerability Technical Post-Mortem Report (2023-08) https://hackmd.io/@vyperlang/HJUgNMhs2
CoinsPaid — a booby-trapped job interview Exchange failure 2023-07 confidence 72
Luring an employee with a fake job interview ← Installation of malicious tools ← $37 million loss
Root cause: The door was not in the servers but in an employee's ambition
Outcome: Documented the Lazarus social-engineering method with rare precision · Recovery: Partial
Contagion ← ALPHAPO-2023
Signals before failure: Custody opacity
Unknowns:
Sources: post-mortem Aug 2023 · DL News: How North Korea's Lazarus Group used a fake job offer to steal $37m from CoinsPaid (2023-08) https://www.dlnews.com/articles/defi/how-north-korea-lazarus-group-stole-crypto-from-coinspaid/ · CoinsPaid (official): The CoinsPaid Hack Explained (2023-08) https://coinspaid.com/company-updates/the-coinspaid-hack-explained/ · CoinsPaid / Match Systems: The Lazarus Hack of CoinsPaid: How Attackers Stole and Laundered $37M (2023-08) https://www.einpresswire.com/article/649035247/the-lazarus-hack-of-coinspaid-how-attackers-stole-and-laundered-37m-usd · Bloomberg (secondary, top-tier): Suspected North Korean Lazarus Crypto Hack Came From Fake Job Offer (2023-08-07) https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2023-08-07/fake-job-offer-opened-door-to-suspected-north-korean-crypto-hack · FBI: FBI Identifies Lazarus Group (names CoinsPaid) (2023-09-06) https://www.fbi.gov/news/press-releases/fbi-identifies-lazarus-group-cyber-actors-as-responsible-for-theft-of-41-million-from-stakecom
Alphapo — a payment gateway bleeding Exchange failure 2023-07 confidence 68
Hot key breach ← Multi-chain loss exceeding $60 million ← Attributed to Lazarus
Root cause: Payment gateways are sometimes a juicier target than exchanges
Outcome: A simultaneous dual targeting of the payments sector · Recovery: Opaque
Contagion ← COINSPAID-2023
Signals before failure: Custody opacity
Unknowns: The final scale of the damage
Sources: Jul 2023 · BleepingComputer: Lazarus hackers linked to $60 million Alphapo cryptocurrency heist (2023-07) https://www.bleepingcomputer.com/news/security/lazarus-hackers-linked-to-60-million-alphapo-cryptocurrency-heist/ · Decrypt: North Korean Hacker Cell Lazarus Allegedly Behind $60M Alphapo Hack (2023-07) https://decrypt.co/150282/north-korean-hacker-cell-lazarus-allegedly-behind-60m-alphapo-hack · Elliptic: How the Lazarus Group is stepping up crypto hacks and changing its tactics (2023-09) https://www.elliptic.co/blog/how-the-lazarus-group-is-stepping-up-crypto-hacks-and-changing-its-tactics · FBI: FBI Identifies Lazarus Group as Responsible for Stake.com Theft (names Alphapo) (2023-09-06) https://www.fbi.gov/news/press-releases/fbi-identifies-lazarus-group-cyber-actors-as-responsible-for-theft-of-41-million-from-stakecom
HEX — declared 38% yield Fraud 2023-07 confidence 68
Marketing of a huge annual yield ← Securities and embezzlement lawsuit ← Jurisdiction dispute, dismissal, then ongoing controversy
Root cause: An asset built entirely on its founder's yield promise
Outcome: The most famous battleground between "community" and "pyramid" · Recovery: Stalled Judicial
Contagion ← No documented contagion
Signals before failure: Artificial yieldNarrative fragility
Unknowns: Final classification
Sources: SEC Jul 2023
Multichain — disappearance of the keys and the founder Bridge failure 2023-07 confidence 74
Mysterious freezing of transfers ← Detention of the founder along with the centralized keys ← Draining of 1.5 billion and shutdown
Root cause: A "decentralized" Bridge governed by the keys of a detained person
Outcome: The clearest lie of bridge decentralization · Recovery: Near None
Contagion ← MULTICHAIN-2023
Signals before failure: Custody opacitySingle point of failure
Unknowns: Actual fate of the keys
Sources: Jul 2023
PalmSwap — broken position logic Protocol failure 2023-07 confidence 56
Flaw in the derivatives-position calculation ← Phantom liquidity withdrawal ← 900 thousand
Root cause: Emerging derivatives platforms carry subtle computation vulnerabilities
Outcome: — · Recovery: Partial
Contagion ← No documented contagion
Signals before failure: Single point of failure
Unknowns:
Sources: Jul 2023
Vyper — a compiler betrays protocols Infrastructure failure 2023-07 confidence 74
Reentrancy-lock bug in compiler versions ← Drain of multiple Curve pools ← 73 million
Root cause: Trusting the compiler itself is an invisible assumption
Outcome: Exposing the risks of the development toolchain · Recovery: Major Recovery
Contagion ← CURVE-VYPER-2023
Signals before failure: Single point of failure
Unknowns:
Sources: Jul 2023
Prime Trust — the custodian loses the keys Exchange failure 2023-06 confidence 80
Loss of access to a legacy 2021 wallet ← Buying coins with other customers' funds to cover withdrawals ← A widening gap ← Nevada receivership
Root cause: A custodian that lost its keys then committed fraud to conceal it
Outcome: Receivership then Bankruptcy; a shock to the regulated custody sector · Recovery: Partial
Contagion ← No documented contagion
Signals before failure: Custody opacityReserve mismatch
Unknowns: How did the loss slip past the auditors for two years?
Sources: NV receivership 2023 · Nevada Dept. of Business and Industry / FID: Nevada FID files court petition to place Prime Trust LLC in receivership (2023-06-27) https://www.business.nv.gov/news-media/press-releases/2023/financial-institutions/nevada-financial-institutions-division-files-court-petition-to-place-prime-trust-llc-in-receivership/ · CoinDesk: Nevada Files to Place Crypto Custodian Prime Trust Into Receivership (2023-06-27) https://www.coindesk.com/policy/2023/06/27/nevada-places-crypto-custodian-prime-trust-into-receivership · Nevada Dept. of Business and Industry / FID: Court approves NFID petition — Prime Trust into receivership (2023-07) https://www.business.nv.gov/news-media/press-releases/2023/financial-institutions/court-approves-nfid-petition-to-place-prime-trust-llc-in-receivership-pending-order-to-show-cause-hearing/ · Stretto: Prime Core Technologies Inc., et al. — Chapter 11 docket (2023-08) https://cases.stretto.com/primetrust/ · U.S. Bankruptcy Court D. Del.: Chapter 11 Plan Confirmation Order, In re Prime Core Technologies (2024-01) https://primetrustwinddown.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/01/confirmation-order.pdf
Atomic Wallet — the self-custody massacre Protocol failure 2023-06 confidence 72
An opaque breach of users' wallets ← Theft of 100 million from 5,500 wallets ← No full public technical explanation
Root cause: Most likely a seed leak via a generation flaw or supply chain — never settled
Outcome: Attributed to Lazarus; class-action lawsuits · Recovery: None approximately
Contagion ← No documented contagion
Signals before failure: Custody opacity
Unknowns: The technical root cause itself remains unknown — a rare case
Sources: class action filings 2023
HTX — the recurring trust crises Exchange failure 2023-06 confidence 64
Recurring solvency rumors ← Wave-like outflows ← Reassurance interventions
Root cause: Living on the edge of trust without decisive protocol transparency
Outcome: The pattern of the chronic crisis, not the acute one · Recovery: Ongoing
Contagion ← No documented contagion
Signals before failure: Custody opacityNarrative fragility
Unknowns: Actual solvency over time
Sources: flows records 2023
TrueUSD — attestations without reassurance Stablecoin failure 2023-06 confidence 70
Exposure to a distressed custodian ← Temporary halt of reserve attestations ← Anxiety and recurring slight de-pegs
Root cause: Trust in a single custodian transfers its crisis to the stablecoin
Outcome: Subsequent ownership and management ambiguity · Recovery: Ongoing Fragility
Contagion ← PRIMETRUST-2023
Signals before failure: Custody opacityReserve mismatch
Unknowns: Identity of the actual controller over time
Sources: attestation gaps 2023
Haru Invest — Korea's impossible yield Fraud 2023-06 confidence 70
Promises of high fixed yields ← Sudden withdrawal suspension ← Arrests and indictment of the operating partner
Root cause: Fixed yield in a Volatile market is a promise of fraud
Outcome: Dragged Dunamu (Delio) down with it the next day · Recovery: Judicial Partial
Contagion ← DELIO-2023
Signals before failure: Artificial yieldCustody opacity
Unknowns:
Sources: KR Jun 2023 · Haru Invest (official): Haru's answer to your inquiries: June 30, 2023 (2023-06-30) https://haruinvest.com/blog/harus-answer-to-your-inquiries-june-30-2023/ · CoinDesk: Haru Invest Execs Arrested for Allegedly Stealing $828M Worth of Crypto (2024-02-06) https://www.coindesk.com/policy/2024/02/06/haru-invest-execs-arrested-in-south-korea-for-allegedly-stealing-828m-worth-of-crypto-report/ · Yonhap News: 하루인베스트 경영진 구속 (Haru executives arrested over 1.1 trillion won) (2024-02-06) https://www.yna.co.kr/view/AKR20240206070100004 · TRM Labs: South Korean Authorities Arrest Three Executives In Haru Crypto Fraud Scheme (2024-02-15) https://www.trmlabs.com/resources/blog/south-korean-authorities-arrest-three-executives-in-haru-crypto-fraud-scheme · The Block: South Korean crypto CEO acquitted of $650 million fraud charges (2025-06) https://www.theblock.co/post/358478/south-korean-crypto-ceo-acquitted-of-650-million-fraud-charges-months-after-stabbing-incident-report
Delio — contagion among Korean lenders Exchange failure 2023-06 confidence 68
Exposure to Haru ← Cascading withdrawal suspension ← Investigations and fines
Root cause: A lender depositing with a lender: stacked bricks before the fall
Outcome: — · Recovery: Partial
Contagion ← HARU-2023
Signals before failure: Single point of failureArtificial yield
Unknowns:
Sources: KR Jun 2023 · Bloomberg (secondary, top-tier): Delio Follows Haru in Pausing Withdrawals on High Yield Crypto Platform (2023-06-14) https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2023-06-14/delio-follows-haru-in-pausing-withdrawals-on-high-yield-crypto-platform · The Block: Korean crypto lending service Delio halts withdrawals due to funds stuck in Haru (2023-06-14) https://www.theblock.co/post/234638/korean-crypto-lending-service-delio-halts-withdrawals-due-to-funds-stuck-in-haru · BlockchainReporter: South Korea's FIU Slaps Crypto Lender Delio with $1.4M Fine (2023-09) https://blockchainreporter.net/south-koreas-fiu-slaps-crypto-lender-delio-with-1-4m-fine-and-halts-operations-for-3-months/ · The Block: South Korea issues arrest warrant in Delio-Haru case (2024-01-24) https://www.theblock.co/post/274232/south-korea-delio-haru-arrest-warrant · Cointelegraph: South Korea's Delio declared bankrupt with $1.75B in assets lost (2024-11) https://cointelegraph.com/news/delio-bankruptcy-south-korea-ftx-impact
Coinbase — the comprehensive platform lawsuit Market structure failure 2023-06 confidence 76
Charge of operating as an unregistered exchange ← Pressure on listings and staking ← A volatile legal and political trajectory
Root cause: The largest listed U.S. exchange facing off against its regulator
Outcome: The trajectory shifted with changing administrations · Recovery: A subsequent breakthrough
Contagion ← BINANCE-SEC-2023
Signals before failure: Governance risk
Unknowns: The enduring regulatory standard
Sources: SEC Jun 2023 · U.S. SEC: Litigation Release LR-25751: Coinbase (2023-06) https://www.sec.gov/enforcement-litigation/litigation-releases/lr-25751 · U.S. SEC: SEC Charges Coinbase (PR 2023-102) (2023-06-06) https://www.sec.gov/newsroom/press-releases/2023-102 · U.S. SEC: SEC v. Coinbase — Complaint (S.D.N.Y.) (2023-06-06) https://www.sec.gov/files/litigation/complaints/2023/comp-pr2023-102.pdf · Coinbase (SEC EDGAR): Coinbase Form 10-Q (Q2 2023) (2023-08) https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/0001679788/000167978823000106/coin-20230630.htm
Binance — the civil front Market structure failure 2023-06 confidence 76
A securities lawsuit and conflicting entities ← An exodus of institutional balances ← The later criminal settlement overshadows it
Root cause: Cross-border interlocking entities are a regulatory bomb
Outcome: — · Recovery: Compliance Restructuring
Contagion ← BINANCE-DOJ-2023
Signals before failure: Governance riskCustody opacity
Unknowns:
Sources: SEC Jun 2023 · U.S. SEC: SEC Secures Emergency Relief to Protect Binance.US Customers' Assets (PR 2023-110) (2023-06) https://www.sec.gov/newsroom/press-releases/2023-110 · U.S. SEC: SEC Files 13 Charges Against Binance Entities and CZ (PR 2023-101) (2023-06-05) https://www.sec.gov/newsroom/press-releases/2023-101-sec-files-13-charges-against-binance-entities-founder-changpeng-zhao · U.S. SEC: SEC v. Binance Holdings et al. — Complaint (D.D.C.) (2023-06-05) https://www.sec.gov/files/litigation/complaints/2023/comp-pr2023-101.pdf
Sturdy — a spot-read oracle Protocol failure 2023-06 confidence 62
Pool price manipulation via flash loan ← Inflated borrowing of 800 thousand ← Freezing of the protocol
Root cause: A spot price read in lending remains the mother vulnerability
Outcome: Recovery via negotiation · Recovery: Partial
Contagion ← No documented contagion
Signals before failure: Single point of failureLeverage expansion
Unknowns:
Sources: Jun 2023 · Sturdy Finance (official Medium): Exploit post-mortem (2023-06) https://sturdyfinance.medium.com/exploit-post-mortem-49261493307a · CertiK: Oracle Dependency: Decrypting the Sturdy Finance Attack (2023-06) https://www.certik.com/resources/blog/oracle-dependency-decrypting-the-sturdy-finance-attack · ImmuneBytes: Sturdy Finance Hack—June 12, 2023—Detailed Analysis (2023-06) https://immunebytes.com/blog/sturdy-finance-hack-june-12-2023-detailed-analysis/ · The Block: Lending protocol Sturdy Finance drained of $800,000 in security attack (2023-06-12) https://www.theblock.co/post/234102/lending-protocol-sturdy-finance-drained-of-800000-in-security-attack
Cloud outages — Web3 on a fragile prop Infrastructure failure 2023-06 confidence 62
DeFi frontends relying on cloud providers ← A cloud outage disrupts the frontends ← The contracts run but no one can reach them
Root cause: The node is alive and the door shut if the cloud falls
Outcome: Exposed Web3's dependence on Web2 · Recovery: Resumption
Contagion ← INFURA-2022
Signals before failure: Single point of failure
Unknowns:
Sources: 2023
Abra — accumulating regulatory settlements Exchange failure 2023-06 confidence 62
Concealed insolvency ← Multiple state orders ← Settlement and partial return of funds
Root cause: Insolvency deferred by disclosure turns into a regulatory case
Outcome: — · Recovery: Partial
Contagion ← CELSIUS-2022
Signals before failure: Custody opacityReserve mismatch
Unknowns:
Sources: 2023 · Finance Magnates: Abra Settles with 25 US State Regulators, Agrees to Return $82M to Customers (2023-06) https://www.financemagnates.com/cryptocurrency/abra-settles-with-25-us-state-regulators-agrees-to-return-82m-to-customers/ · Conference of State Bank Supervisors (CSBS): State Financial Regulators Settle with Abra to Return Cryptocurrency Assets (2023-06) https://www.csbs.org/newsroom/state-financial-regulators-settle-abra-return-cryptocurrency-assets · U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission: SEC Charges Abra with Unregistered Offers and Sales of Crypto Asset Securities (2024-08) https://www.sec.gov/newsroom/press-releases/2024-105
Prime Trust — the custodian loses the keys Fraud 2023-06 confidence 70
Loss of access to an old wallet ← Covering with new clients' funds ← Insolvency and regulatory seizure
Root cause: A custodian covering their error with others' funds collapses legally
Outcome: — · Recovery: Regulatory seizure
Contagion ← PRIMETRUST-2023
Signals before failure: Custody opacityReserve mismatch
Unknowns:
Sources: 2023
Bittrex — the U.S. regulatory death Exchange failure 2023-05 confidence 75
An SEC lawsuit ← Withdrawal from the U.S. market ← Bankruptcy of the U.S. arm ← Orderly wind-down
Root cause: The cost of compliance and regulatory ambiguity killed the model
Outcome: Returned customer funds through the orderly Bankruptcy · Recovery: Near-complete
Contagion ← No documented contagion
Signals before failure: Governance risk
Unknowns: Was the withdrawal inevitable or a misstep in positioning?
Sources: ch11 filings 2023 · SEC complaint
Tornado Cash — buying governance by deception Governance failure 2023-05 confidence 76
A proposal with a hidden payload ← Granting the attacker full privileges ← Temporary control of governance ← Returned voluntarily after profiting
Root cause: Voting on code no one actually read
Outcome: Governance restored itself on the attacker's terms · Recovery: Partial, anomalous
Contagion ← No documented contagion
Signals before failure: Governance risk
Unknowns:
Sources: governance records May 2023
The second banking wave Market structure failure 2023-05 confidence 66
Continued contagion among regional banks ← Pressure on the sector's new partners ← Banking repositioning for the sector
Root cause: The tail of the banking crisis reached the sector's banking options
Outcome: Reduced banking peg options for years · Recovery: Structural
Contagion ← SVB-USDC-2023
Signals before failure: Liquidity concentration
Unknowns:
Sources: FDIC 2023
BlockFi — the wallet battle Treasury failure 2023-05 confidence 72
Ownership dispute: wallet balances vs. accounts ← Judicial distinction between the two products ← Custody precedent
Root cause: The account type decided the fate of the money — a pure legal lesson
Outcome: A precedent for classifying deposits · Recovery: By product
Contagion ← BLOCKFI-2022
Signals before failure: Custody opacity
Unknowns:
Sources: court rulings 2023
Hotbit — the exhausting wind-down Exchange failure 2023-05 confidence 66
Accumulating investigations and freezes ← An operating model that became a burden ← Voluntary shutdown and asset return
Root cause: Some platforms do not collapse; they surrender
Outcome: An administrative death, not a hacker's · Recovery: Withdrawal available
Contagion ← No documented contagion
Signals before failure: Treasury stressGovernance risk
Unknowns:
Sources: closure May 2023
DEUS — a stablecoin and a bridge bleed Protocol failure 2023-05 confidence 60
Exploit of a lending contract tied to the stablecoin ← Minting and de-peg ← 6 million across incidents
Root cause: The entanglement of stablecoin and lending multiplies the attack surface
Outcome: Recurring incidents exhaust the issuing project · Recovery: Weak
Contagion ← No documented contagion
Signals before failure: Single point of failureReserve mismatch
Unknowns:
Sources: 2022-23
Single-client dominance — the diversity risk Infrastructure failure 2023-05 confidence 64
A dominant validator-client share ← Intermittent finality incidents ← A diversification campaign
Root cause: Dominance by a single client is a finality time bomb
Outcome: A diversification campaign moved clients · Recovery: Gradual Improvement
Contagion ← MEDALLA-2020
Signals before failure: Single point of failure
Unknowns:
Sources: May 2023 · Prysmatic Labs: Prysmatic Labs' Statement on Client Diversity (2021-09-29) https://medium.com/prysmatic-labs/prysmatic-labs-statement-on-client-diversity-c0e3c2f05671 · Prysmatic Labs / Offchain Labs: Post-Mortem Report: Ethereum Mainnet Finality (05/11/2023) (2023-05) https://medium.com/offchainlabs/post-mortem-report-ethereum-mainnet-finality-05-11-2023-95e271dfd8b2 · CoinDesk: S&P Global Just Made Ethereum's Centralization Risk a TradFi Concern (2024-02-22) https://www.coindesk.com/markets/2024/02/22/sp-global-just-made-ethereums-centralization-risk-a-tradfi-concern
Ethereum — double finality halt Infrastructure failure 2023-05 confidence 66
Bug in processing attestations ← Finality halted twice in one day ← Resumption with no loss
Root cause: Even the most mature networks stumble in their finality at times
Outcome: A resilience test after the merge · Recovery: Resumption
Contagion ← PRYSM-DOMINANCE-2023
Signals before failure: Single point of failure
Unknowns:
Sources: May 2023
Institutional custody vulnerabilities — silent risks Protocol failure 2023-05 confidence 62
Vulnerabilities in institutional multisig structures ← Research discovery before exploitation ← Urgent patch
Root cause: Even institutional custody carries subtle cryptographic vulnerabilities
Outcome: A rare preventive research disclosure · Recovery: Patch
Contagion ← No documented contagion
Signals before failure: Single point of failure
Unknowns:
Sources: 2023
Eisenberg — the profitable strategy before the judge Fraud 2023-04 confidence 76
The documented manipulation of Mango prices ← The "code is law, anything goes" defense ← A fraud and manipulation conviction then sentencing complications
Root cause: The first Judicial test of the "code is law" principle
Outcome: Drew the playing limits of an "issuing project" on-chain · Recovery: A conviction with Ongoing debate
Contagion ← MANGO-2022
Signals before failure: Governance risk
Unknowns: The final settling of the precedent
Sources: US v Eisenberg
AllBridge — distorted pool balance Bridge failure 2023-04 confidence 64
Manipulation of a pool balance to distort the price ← Flash loan that amplifies the flaw ← Withdrawal of about 570 thousand
Root cause: The Bridge's pricing logic is a target for the flash loan
Outcome: Negotiating a Partial recovery with the attacker · Recovery: Partial
Contagion ← No documented contagion
Signals before failure: Single point of failureLeverage expansion
Unknowns:
Sources: Apr 2023
Merlin — auditors who steal Fraud 2023-04 confidence 62
A privileged key held by the audit team ← Draining of the launch pool ← 1.8 million
Root cause: Even the Validator may be the threat if it holds the keys
Outcome: Shook trust in the meaning of "audited" · Recovery: Near None
Contagion ← No documented contagion
Signals before failure: Custody opacityGovernance risk
Unknowns:
Sources: Apr 2023
MEV bot — an unprotected call Protocol failure 2023-04 confidence 62
A bot contract with an exposed call permission ← An attacker drains its profits ← About 25 million
Root cause: Even the predator is preyed upon if it leaves a door open
Outcome: The largest documented MEV-bot Drain · Recovery: None
Contagion ← No documented contagion
Signals before failure: Single point of failure
Unknowns: Identity of the operator
Sources: Apr 2023
Float Protocol — another algorithmic stablecoin dies Stablecoin failure 2023-04 confidence 58
A complex peg model without sufficient adoption ← Evaporated liquidity ← Gradual abandonment
Root cause: Quiet death is the fate of most algorithmic stablecoins
Outcome: An archive of forgotten algorithmic stablecoins · Recovery: None
Contagion ← ESD-2021
Signals before failure: Reserve mismatchNarrative fragility
Unknowns:
Sources: 2023
UMA — disputed optimistic oracle Protocol failure 2023-04 confidence 58
Dispute over a proposal outcome ← Disputed oracle vote ← Concern over neutrality
Root cause: A human oracle is susceptible to politicization and social manipulation
Outcome: Debate over optimistic oracle governance · Recovery: Settlement
Contagion ← No documented contagion
Signals before failure: Governance risk
Unknowns:
Sources: 2023
Silicon Valley Bank — USDC depeg Stablecoin failure 2023-03 confidence 90
3.3 billion of Circle's reserve in a single bank ← A traditional bank run on the bank ← Bank closure ← Panic and depeg to 0.87 ← Federal intervention and peg restoration
Root cause: The "digital dollar" reserve resides in a traditional shadow bank — reverse contagion from banks to coins
Outcome: Full Recovery within 72 hours with a federal guarantee · Recovery: Full
Contagion ← No documented contagion
Signals before failure: Reserve mismatchSingle point of failure
Unknowns: What if the Fed had not intervened? The true stress test was never completed
Sources: Circle disclosures Mar 2023 · FDIC records
Euler — the exploit that was returned Protocol failure 2023-03 confidence 86
A flaw in the donation function with no validity check ← A 197 million flash loan ← Public on-chain negotiations ← Near-complete return
Root cause: A missing check line in a secondary function cost the protocol all of its locked value
Outcome: The most famous case of a full return after negotiation · Recovery: Nearly Full — a historic exception
Contagion ← No documented contagion
Signals before failure: Single point of failure
Unknowns: The exploiter's motives for the full return remain speculative
Sources: exploit + negotiation on-chain record Mar-Apr 2023
Silvergate — the sector bank collapses first Market structure failure 2023-03 confidence 82
Deposit concentration from crypto exchanges ← Deposit run after FTX ← Selling bonds at a loss ← Voluntary liquidation
Root cause: A single-sector depositor base = a correlated run
Outcome: Shut down the instant Settlement network for the entire sector · Recovery: Orderly wind-down
Contagion ← SVB-USDC-2023
Signals before failure: Liquidity concentrationSingle point of failure
Unknowns: The impact of shutting down its network on market liquidity was never fully measured
Sources: Fed/FHLB records 2023 · CNBC (secondary, top-tier): Crypto-focused bank Silvergate shutting operations and liquidating (2023-03-08) https://www.cnbc.com/2023/03/08/silvergate-shutting-down-operations-and-liquidating-bank.html · Silvergate Capital (IR): Silvergate Capital Announces Intent to Wind Down Operations and Voluntarily Liquidate (2023-03-08) https://ir.silvergate.com/news/news-details/2023/Silvergate-Capital-Corporation-Announces-Intent-to-Wind-Down-Operations-and-Voluntarily-Liquidate-Silvergate-Bank/default.aspx · California DFPI: DFPI, Federal Reserve Joint Consent Order on Silvergate Liquidation (2023-06) http://dfpi.ca.gov/press_release/dfpi-federal-reserve-issue-joint-consent-order-to-oversee-silvergate-bank-voluntary-liquidation/ · Federal Reserve Board: Federal Reserve consent order against Silvergate to facilitate self-liquidation (2023-06-01) https://www.federalreserve.gov/newsevents/pressreleases/enforcement20230601a.htm
Signature — the precautionary closure Market structure failure 2023-03 confidence 78
Large crypto-sector deposits ← Post-Silicon Valley panic ← A regulatory closure over a weekend
Root cause: Panic contagion among the sector's banks, not proven insolvency
Outcome: Controversy: was it shut down for liquidity reasons or policy toward the sector? · Recovery: Deposits were guaranteed
Contagion ← SVB-USDC-2023
Signals before failure: Liquidity concentration
Unknowns: The full justifications for the closure — conflicting reports
Sources: FDIC/NYDFS records 2023 · FDIC: FDIC Establishes Signature Bridge Bank (PR-18-2023) (2023-03-12) https://www.fdic.gov/news/press-releases/2023/pr23018.html · New York DFS: NYDFS Takes Possession of Signature Bank (2023-03-12) https://www.dfs.ny.gov/reports_and_publications/press_releases/pr20230312 · FDIC: FDIC's Supervision of Signature Bank (2023-04-28) https://www.fdic.gov/sites/default/files/2024-03/pr23033a.pdf · New York DFS: NYDFS Internal Review of the Supervision and Closure of Signature Bank (2023-04-28) https://www.dfs.ny.gov/reports_and_publications/other_reports/internal_review_signature_bank_20230428 · FDIC Office of Inspector General: Material Loss Review of Signature Bank of New York (2023-10) https://www.fdicoig.gov/news/summary-announcements/material-loss-review-signature-bank-new-york
Hedera — exploit of the contracts layer Protocol failure 2023-03 confidence 72
Vulnerability in the smart-contract service ← Pool liquidity stolen ← Network gateways paused temporarily ← Fix
Root cause: A new contract surface on an institutional chain
Outcome: Rapid containment through an explicit centralized halt · Recovery: Near-complete
Contagion ← No documented contagion
Signals before failure: Single point of failure
Unknowns:
Sources: incident Mar 2023
The public SafeMoon vulnerability Protocol failure 2023-03 confidence 74
An upgrade broke the burn function ← the liquidity became lootable pool ← $8.9M exploit ← The exploiter returned 80% as a deal
Root cause: An upgrade without an audit opened the treasury
Outcome: Preceded the founders' charges by months · Recovery: Partial
Contagion ← SAFEMOON-2023
Signals before failure: Single point of failure
Unknowns:
Sources: post-mortem Mar 2023
Sector-wide depeg ripple effects, 2023 Stablecoin failure 2023-03 confidence 80
USDC depeg ← DAI and dollars stacked on it follow ← Mass recovery after the backstop
Root cause: Stablecoins built on a stablecoin inherit its crisis instantly
Outcome: Exposed the Full dependency tree of the digital dollar · Recovery: Full
Contagion ← SVB-USDC-2023
Signals before failure: Reserve mismatchSingle point of failure
Unknowns:
Sources: depeg records Mar 2023
FTX's regional arms Exchange failure 2023-03 confidence 70
Freezing of the Europe and Japan arms ← Customers stranded under different regimes ← Recoveries varying by state
Root cause: The global Collapse fragments legally by geography
Outcome: The lesson of the multiple jurisdictions · Recovery: Mixed
Contagion ← FTX-2022
Signals before failure: Governance risk
Unknowns:
Sources: regional filings
Loss of instant settlement networks Market structure failure 2023-03 confidence 76
Closure of Silvergate and Signature ← Loss of instant dollar settlement channels ← Fragmentation of institutional liquidity
Root cause: The sector's banking structure broke in a single week
Outcome: A structural impact exceeding the direct losses · Recovery: Slow alternatives
Contagion ← SILVERGATE-2023, SIGNATURE-2023
Signals before failure: Single point of failure
Unknowns:
Sources: records 2023 · CoinDesk: Signature Bank, Stablecoins Might Benefit From Silvergate Exchange Network's Demise (2023-03-07) https://www.coindesk.com/business/2023/03/07/signature-bank-stablecoins-might-benefit-from-silvergate-exchange-networks-demise · Bloomberg: Crypto Market Trades at Risk Without Silvergate's (SI) SEN Network (2023-03-12) https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2023-03-12/crypto-market-trades-at-risk-without-silvergate-s-si-sen-network · FDIC: FDIC Establishes Signature Bridge Bank, N.A., as Successor to Signature Bank, New York, NY (2023-03-12) https://www.fdic.gov/news/press-releases/2023/pr23018.html · New York State Department of Financial Services: Notice Regarding Signature Bank (2023-03-12) https://www.dfs.ny.gov/consumers/alerts/SignatureBank · FDIC: FDIC Releases Report Detailing Supervision of the Former Signature Bank (2023-04-28) https://www.fdic.gov/news/press-releases/2023/pr23033.html
agEUR — collateral trapped Stablecoin failure 2023-03 confidence 76
Part of the collateral in Euler ← Euler hack freezes it ← De-peg until recovery
Root cause: A peg that depends on the solvency of an external protocol
Outcome: Euler's Recovery restored the peg · Recovery: Nearly Full
Contagion ← EULER-2023
Signals before failure: Single point of failure
Unknowns:
Sources: post-mortem Mar 2023 · ChainCatcher: Angle Protocol: 17.6 million USDC funds affected by the Euler attack incident (2023-03) https://www.chaincatcher.com/en/article/2089220 · Euler Governance Forum: Special Announcement (Euler exploit recovery) (2023-03) https://forum.euler.finance/t/special-announcement/900 · LlamaRisk: The Euler Exploit Effect on Angle agEUR and Curve Pools (2023-03) https://www.llamarisk.com/research/archive-llamarisk-the-euler-exploit-effect-on-angle-ageur-and-curve-pools · Angle Protocol (blog.angle.money): Euler Hack Reflection: Learning, Adapting, and Strengthening Angle Protocol (2023-04-05) https://blog.angle.money/euler-hack-reflection-learning-adapting-and-strengthening-angle-protocol
Do Kwon — forged passports in Podgorica Fraud 2023-03 confidence 80
A cross-continental flight ← Arrest on forged documents ← An extradition war between Korea and America
Root cause: The end of the flight does not cancel years of harm
Outcome: — · Recovery: Surrender and litigation
Contagion ← TERRA-2022
Signals before failure: Governance risk
Unknowns:
Sources: Montenegro Mar 2023
ChipMixer — the chip laundromat Fraud 2023-03 confidence 76
Mixing of 3 billion over years ← Seizure of 46 million and international shutdown ← Indictment of the operator
Root cause: A laundering infrastructure serving all the era's Breaches
Outcome: Severed a main artery for Lazarus · Recovery: Seizure
Contagion ← RONIN-2022
Signals before failure: Custody opacity
Unknowns:
Sources: Europol Mar 2023
Sango — a state coin without infrastructure Governance failure 2023-03 confidence 64
Hasty sovereign adoption of crypto ← Stalled national token sale ← Legislative retreat and fading of the project
Root cause: Sovereignty without infrastructure or liquidity does not make an asset
Outcome: The second and most faltering sovereign experiment · Recovery: Near None
Contagion ← No documented contagion
Signals before failure: Narrative fragilityLiquidity concentration
Unknowns: Fate of the proceeds
Sources: CAR 2022-23
Polygon — Heimdall halt Infrastructure failure 2023-03 confidence 60
Flaw in the Heimdall consensus layer ← Delay in transaction finality ← Fix
Root cause: Separating consensus layers adds points of failure
Outcome: — · Recovery: Resumption
Contagion ← POLYGON-OUTAGE-2022
Signals before failure: Single point of failure
Unknowns:
Sources: Mar 2023
Avalanche — a temporary finality halt Infrastructure failure 2023-03 confidence 58
Flaw in transaction verification ← An hour's delay in finality ← Fix
Root cause: Rapid finality is a promise tested under pressure
Outcome: — · Recovery: Resumption
Contagion ← No documented contagion
Signals before failure: Single point of failure
Unknowns:
Sources: Mar 2023
Kokomo — a rug in lending guise Fraud 2023-03 confidence 56
A lending fork with seeded liquidity ← Disabling and a sudden withdrawal ← 4 million
Root cause: An ostensibly audited fork hides an Exit door
Outcome: — · Recovery: None
Contagion ← KANNAGI-2023
Signals before failure: Custody opacity
Unknowns: Team identity
Sources: Mar 2023 · Cointelegraph: $4M 'exit scam' suspected as Kokomo Finance flies off radar (2023-03) https://cointelegraph.com/news/4m-exit-scam-suspected-as-kokomo-finance-flies-off-radar-token-plunges · CryptoPotato: Optimism DeFi Protocol Kokomo Finance Rug Pulls Users for $4 Million (2023-03) https://cryptopotato.com/optimism-defi-protocol-kokomo-finance-rug-pulls-users-for-4-million/ · CertiK: Kokomo Finance — Incident Analysis (2023-08-01) https://www.certik.com/blog/kokomo-finance
SafeMoon — the exposed liquidity Protocol failure 2023-03 confidence 64
A flaw that makes the contract's liquidity withdrawable ← An external exploit then negotiation ← About 9 million
Root cause: Flawed liquidity locking is worse than none
Outcome: Coincided with the Judicial Prosecutions of the founders · Recovery: Partial
Contagion ← SAFEMOON-2023
Signals before failure: Single point of failureGovernance risk
Unknowns:
Sources: Mar 2023
USDC — hours of terror Stablecoin failure 2023-03 confidence 82
Partial reserves in a collapsing bank ← De-peg down to 0.87 ← Recovery after deposit guarantee
Root cause: Even the largest backed stablecoin is hostage to a single bank
Outcome: The most dangerous de-peg of a major stablecoin · Recovery: Recovery Full
Contagion ← SVB-USDC-2023
Signals before failure: Reserve mismatchCustody opacity
Unknowns:
Sources: Mar 2023 · Circle (official): $3.3 Billion of USDC Reserve Risk Removed, Dollar De-peg Closes (2023-03) https://www.circle.com/pressroom/3-3-billion-of-usdc-reserve-risk-removed-dollar-de-peg-closes · Chainalysis: Crypto Market Reaction to Silicon Valley Bank and USDC Depeg (2023-03) https://www.chainalysis.com/blog/crypto-market-usdc-silicon-valley-bank/ · Fortune (secondary, top-tier): Circle reveals $3.3 billion stuck at SVB as USDC wobbles (2023-03-10) https://fortune.com/crypto/2023/03/10/circle-reveals-3-3-billion-stuck-silicon-valley-bank-usdc-wobbles-against-peg/ · CoinDesk: Circle Confirms $3.3B of USDC's Cash Reserves Stuck at Failed SVB (2023-03-11) https://www.coindesk.com/business/2023/03/11/circle-confirms-33b-of-usdcs-cash-reserves-stuck-at-failed-silicon-valley-bank · Federal Reserve Board: In the Shadow of Bank Runs: Lessons from the SVB Failure and Its Impact on Stablecoins (FEDS Notes) (2025-12-17) https://www.federalreserve.gov/econres/notes/feds-notes/in-the-shadow-of-bank-run-lessons-from-the-silicon-valley-bank-failure-and-its-impact-on-stablecoins-20251217.html
DAI — stablecoin collateral contagion Stablecoin failure 2023-03 confidence 74
Large share of collateral in USDC ← De-peg transmission ← Emergency parameter adjustment
Root cause: A stablecoin collateralized by a stablecoin inherits its crisis
Outcome: A push toward diversifying DAI collateral · Recovery: Recovery
Contagion ← USDC-SVB-DEPEG-2023
Signals before failure: Reserve mismatchSingle point of failure
Unknowns:
Sources: Mar 2023
Frax — the stable portion is exposed Stablecoin failure 2023-03 confidence 70
Portion backed by USDC ← De-peg via contagion ← Recovery with the market
Root cause: Hybrid models inherit the weakness of their weakest component
Outcome: — · Recovery: Recovery
Contagion ← USDC-SVB-DEPEG-2023
Signals before failure: Reserve mismatch
Unknowns:
Sources: Mar 2023
cUSD — Celo collateral pressure Stablecoin failure 2023-03 confidence 56
Volatile collateral and stablecoin exposure ← Slight de-peg pressure ← Stabilization
Root cause: Single-chain stablecoins breathe in perpetual anxiety
Outcome: — · Recovery: Stabilization
Contagion ← No documented contagion
Signals before failure: Reserve mismatch
Unknowns:
Sources: 2023
Gold-backed assets — the price gap Liquidity failure 2023-03 confidence 52
Deviation of token price from the metal ← Thin liquidity and spreads ← Correction
Root cause: Tokenized assets inherit the liquidity gaps of their original market
Outcome: — · Recovery: Correction
Contagion ← No documented contagion
Signals before failure: Liquidity concentration
Unknowns:
Sources: 2023
Silvergate — the bridge bank collapses Liquidity failure 2023-03 confidence 74
The sector's reliance on the bank's settlement network ← Deposit run after FTX ← Voluntary liquidation
Root cause: The Bridge banking structure is a silent point of failure for the sector
Outcome: The first link in the banking crisis · Recovery: Liquidation
Contagion ← SILVERGATE-2023
Signals before failure: Single point of failure
Unknowns:
Sources: Mar 2023
Platypus — the fatal arbitrage Protocol failure 2023-02 confidence 74
Flash loan ← Bug in the solvency check on withdrawal ← 9 million theft ← Swift French arrest
Root cause: A wrong ordering of checks in an emergency function
Outcome: A controversial acquittal by an initial French Ruling then a reversal · Recovery: Partial
Contagion ← No documented contagion
Signals before failure: Single point of failure
Unknowns: The French legal precedent is still developing
Sources: FR court records 2023-2024
BUSD — the regulatory execution Stablecoin failure 2023-02 confidence 84
New York regulatory order to halt issuance ← Wells Notice from the SEC ← Orderly wind-down of $16B ← Quiet exit
Root cause: Regulatory death, not technical — the first major stablecoin shut down by decree
Outcome: An orderly full Recovery proved the robustness of the licensed model · Recovery: Full
Contagion ← No documented contagion
Signals before failure: Governance risk
Unknowns: The detailed reasons for the regulatory order were not fully published
Sources: NYDFS order Feb 2023
Kraken — the end of intermediated staking Market structure failure 2023-02 confidence 76
An intermediated staking service for Americans ← A $30 million settlement ← Closure of the service in the United States
Root cause: An intermediary yield product without registration = a security to the regulator
Outcome: Redrew U.S. staking services · Recovery: Settlement
Contagion ← No documented contagion
Signals before failure: Governance riskArtificial yield
Unknowns:
Sources: SEC Feb 2023
Seaman — a rug via admin privilege Fraud 2023-02 confidence 52
Broad admin privilege ← Sudden withdrawal of liquidity ← Disappearance
Root cause: An unrestricted permission gets used one day
Outcome: — · Recovery: None
Contagion ← No documented contagion
Signals before failure: Custody opacity
Unknowns:
Sources: Feb 2023
Genesis — institutional lender falls Exchange failure 2023-01 confidence 85
Exposure to Three Arrows Capital (3AC) ← Exposure to FTX ← 1.2 billion gap ← Faltering parent-group support ← Freeze then bankruptcy
Root cause: A centralized lender that inherited the risks of every collapse before it — pure institutional contagion
Outcome: Settlement with regulators and creditors · Recovery: Distributions in 2024
Contagion ← No documented contagion
Signals before failure: Leverage expansionLiquidity concentration
Unknowns: Details of the internal arrangements with the parent company
Sources: chapter 11 filings Jan 2023 · NYAG settlement · Bloomberg Law (secondary, top-tier): Crypto Firm Genesis Files for Chapter 11 Bankruptcy in SDNY (2023-01) https://news.bloomberglaw.com/bankruptcy-law/crypto-firm-genesis-files-for-chapter-11-bankruptcy-in-sdny · Kroll Restructuring Administration: Genesis Global Holdco — Restructuring Docket (2023-01) https://restructuring.ra.kroll.com/genesis/ · U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission: SEC Charges Genesis and Gemini over Gemini Earn (PR 2023-7) (2023-01-12) https://www.sec.gov/newsroom/press-releases/2023-7 · U.S. Bankruptcy Court SDNY: In Re: 23-10063-shl Genesis Global Holdco — Case Information Page (2023-01-19) https://www.nysb.uscourts.gov/content/re-23-10063-shl-genesis-global-holdco-llc · New York State Office of the Attorney General: Attorney General James Sues Gemini, Genesis, and DCG (2023-10-19) https://ag.ny.gov/press-release/2023/attorney-general-james-sues-cryptocurrency-companies-gemini-genesis-and-dcg · U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission: Genesis Agrees to Pay $21 Million Penalty (PR 2024-37) (2024-03-19) https://www.sec.gov/newsroom/press-releases/2024-37 · U.S. Bankruptcy Court SDNY (via ag.ny.gov): Memorandum Decision Confirming Genesis Chapter 11 Plan (Doc 1691) (2024-05-17) https://ag.ny.gov/sites/default/files/decisions/us-bankruptcycourt-s-ny-v-genesis-global.pdf · New York State Office of the Attorney General: AG James Secures Settlement Worth $2 Billion from Genesis (2024-05-20) https://ag.ny.gov/press-release/2024/attorney-general-james-secures-settlement-worth-2-billion-crypto-firm-genesis
Gemini Earn — third-party yield Exchange failure 2023-01 confidence 80
A yield product passed through to Genesis ← Genesis freeze ← 900 million stuck ← A comprehensive settlement
Root cause: A product "safe" on the surface with full third-party risk
Outcome: Near-complete Recovery through the Settlement in 2024 · Recovery: Near-complete
Contagion ← GENESIS-2023
Signals before failure: Single point of failure
Unknowns: The adequacy of risk disclosure to retail customers
Sources: NYAG settlement 2024
Bitzlato — the grey protocol Fraud 2023-01 confidence 72
Processing of 700 million, mostly illicit ← Arrest of the founder in Miami ← Shutdown and federal designation
Root cause: The shadow economy needs gateways — and taking them down hurts it
Outcome: — · Recovery: Seizure
Contagion ← HYDRA-2022
Signals before failure: Custody opacity
Unknowns:
Sources: DOJ Jan 2023
QAN — compromised deployer key Bridge failure 2023-01 confidence 60
Leak of the deployer's private key ← Minting and draining of the bridge ← Sharp price collapse
Root cause: Bridge security equals the security of a single key
Outcome: — · Recovery: Weak
Contagion ← No documented contagion
Signals before failure: Custody opacitySingle point of failure
Unknowns:
Sources: Jan 2023
The sandwich wave — a hidden tax Market structure failure 2023-01 confidence 66
Bots that surround users' transactions ← Slippage extracted systematically ← Billions extracted cumulatively
Root cause: Extractable value is a silent tax on every transaction
Outcome: Exposed the hidden economy of transaction ordering · Recovery: Ongoing
Contagion ← No documented contagion
Signals before failure: market_structure_risk
Unknowns: The true total volume
Sources: research 2021-23 · The Block: Jaredfromsubway.eth's MEV bot rakes in millions in three months (2023-05) https://www.theblock.co/post/230218/jaredfromsubway-mev-bot · EigenPhi: Performance Appraisal of Jaredfromsubway.eth (2023-05-10) https://eigenphi.substack.com/p/performance-appraisal-of-jaredfromsubway-eth · arXiv (academic): Remeasuring the Arbitrage and Sandwich Attacks of MEV in Ethereum (2024-05) https://arxiv.org/html/2405.17944v2
Nexo — a U.S. withdrawal under pressure Exchange failure 2023-01 confidence 66
Multi-state regulatory settlements ← Withdrawal of the U.S. yield product ← Fines of 45 million
Root cause: Retail yield products inevitably collide with regulation
Outcome: A model of orderly withdrawal under pressure · Recovery: Settlement
Contagion ← KRAKEN-STAKING-2023
Signals before failure: Governance riskArtificial yield
Unknowns:
Sources: Jan 2023
The failed major NFT launches Market structure failure 2023-01 confidence 58
Major brands launching late collectibles ← Weak demand and mispricing ← De-peg and withdrawal
Root cause: Major brands entering marks the bubble's peak, not its dawn
Outcome: A signal of the collectibles market top · Recovery: Launch failure
Contagion ← SANDBOX-LAND-2022
Signals before failure: Narrative fragility
Unknowns:
Sources: 2023
Genesis — institutional lender falls Exchange failure 2023-01 confidence 70
Exposure to Three Arrows and FTX ← Withdrawal freeze ← Bankruptcy and restructuring
Root cause: An institutional lender is a central contagion link
Outcome: — · Recovery: Restructuring
Contagion ← FTX-CONTAGION-DEEP-2022
Signals before failure: Single point of failure
Unknowns:
Sources: 2023
Maple and Orthogonal — blind credit Liquidity failure 2022-12 confidence 76
Unsecured lending to trading desks ← Orthogonal hides its FTX losses ← $36M default ← Collapse of the trust model
Root cause: A credit delegate lied and the protocol was opaque
Outcome: Maple rebuilt with a more conservative model · Recovery: Partial then Recovery as a model
Contagion ← FTX-2022
Signals before failure: Custody opacityLeverage expansion
Unknowns:
Sources: default notices Dec 2022
Ankr — the stolen developer key Protocol failure 2022-12 confidence 74
A compromised deployer key ← Six quadrillion reward tokens minted ← Immediate dump ← Declared compensation
Root cause: A single upgrade key over an infinite supply
Outcome: Among the most egregious mint incidents numerically · Recovery: Compensation
Contagion ← No documented contagion
Signals before failure: Single point of failureCustody opacity
Unknowns:
Sources: post-mortem Dec 2022 · Ankr: Our Findings From the aBNBc Token Exploit (After-Action Report) (2022-12) https://www.ankr.com/blog/after-action-report-our-findings-from-abnbc-token-exploit/ · Neptune Mutual: Taking a Closer Look at Ankr Hack (2022-12) https://medium.com/neptune-mutual/taking-a-closer-look-at-ankr-hack-7c6f57ee8d25 · Cointelegraph: Ankr Confirms Exploit, Asks for Immediate Trading Halt (2022-12-02) https://cointelegraph.com/news/ankr-confirms-exploit-asks-for-immediate-trading-halt · CoinDesk: DeFi Protocol Ankr Exploited for Over $5M (2022-12-02) https://www.coindesk.com/markets/2022/12/02/defi-protocol-ankr-exploited-for-over-5m
Defrost — a rug in exploit's clothing Fraud 2022-12 confidence 64
An alleged oracle exploit ← Evidence of insider keys ← An ambiguous partial return
Root cause: When the «Breach» is a mask for the Exit
Outcome: The disguised rug pattern · Recovery: Opaque
Contagion ← No documented contagion
Signals before failure: Custody opacity
Unknowns: Internal or external
Sources: trace Dec 2022
Mining under pressure 2022 Market structure failure 2022-12 confidence 70
Energy prices and simultaneous price collapse ← Bankruptcies of listed miners ← Forced selling of Bitcoin
Root cause: The industry's operational leverage explodes with the cycle
Outcome: The major wave of mining Bankruptcies · Recovery: Restructuring
Contagion ← No documented contagion
Signals before failure: Leverage expansion
Unknowns:
Sources: ch11 filings 2022
GBTC discount — the closed trap Market structure failure 2022-12 confidence 78
Closed-end fund with no redemption ← Discount reaching 50% ← Leverage built on the discount ← Later conversion to a spot fund
Root cause: A structure without a Recovery valve creates a price prison
Outcome: The discount that swallowed Three Arrows and Genesis · Recovery: Resolved by the 2024 transition
Contagion ← 3AC-2022
Signals before failure: Liquidity concentrationLeverage expansion
Unknowns:
Sources: filings 2022-2024
Proof-of-reserves gaps Market structure failure 2022-12 confidence 74
Wave of proof-of-reserves after FTX ← Proof of assets without liabilities ← Auditor withdrawals
Root cause: Half the balance sheet is not solvency — incomplete proof reassures falsely
Outcome: Exposed the limits of accounting reassurance · Recovery: Improvement Partial
Contagion ← FTX-2022
Signals before failure: Custody opacity
Unknowns:
Sources: auditor exits 2022
Rubic — pending approvals harvested Bridge failure 2022-12 confidence 62
Aggregator contract with broad permissions ← Harvesting of users' pending approvals ← 1.4 million
Root cause: Open spending permissions are a latent debt on the user
Outcome: The lesson of revoking approvals · Recovery: Partial
Contagion ← No documented contagion
Signals before failure: Single point of failure
Unknowns:
Sources: Dec 2022
Ankr — minting then poisoning the pools Protocol failure 2022-12 confidence 68
Infinite minting hits the liquidity pools ← De-peg of the liquid collateral ← Temporary collapse of pegged assets
Root cause: The infinite mint pollutes every connected pool
Outcome: Exposed the contagion of interlinked liquid staking · Recovery: Compensation
Contagion ← ANKR-2022
Signals before failure: Single point of failureLiquidity concentration
Unknowns:
Sources: Dec 2022 · Cointelegraph: Ankr Deploys $15M to Make Users Whole as Helio Stablecoin Recovers After Exploit (2022-12) https://cointelegraph.com/news/ankr-deploys-15m-to-make-whole-users-as-helio-stablecoin-recovers-after-exploit · Halborn: Explained: The Ankr and Helio Hacks (November 2022) (2022-12) https://www.halborn.com/blog/post/explained-the-ankr-and-helio-hacks-november-2022 · Helio.Money: Helio Protocol's Impact In The aBNBc Exploit (2022-12) https://medium.com/helio-money/helio-protocols-impact-in-the-abnbc-exploit-6954e0199096 · CoinDesk: How Attackers Made $15M From Staking Platform Helio After Ankr Exploit (2022-12-02) https://www.coindesk.com/tech/2022/12/02/how-attackers-made-15m-from-staking-platform-helio-after-ankr-exploit
Core Scientific — largest miner goes bankrupt Treasury failure 2022-12 confidence 72
Massive debt and exposure to Celsius ← Revenue collapse ← Bankruptcy and restructuring
Root cause: The largest miners are not immune to leverage and the cycle
Outcome: The largest mining Bankruptcy · Recovery: Restructuring and Exit
Contagion ← CELSIUS-2022
Signals before failure: Treasury stressLeverage expansion
Unknowns:
Sources: Dec 2022 · Data Center Dynamics: Cryptomining data center firm Core Scientific facing bankruptcy (2022-10) https://www.datacenterdynamics.com/en/news/cryptomining-data-center-firm-core-scientific-facing-bankruptcy/ · U.S. SEC (EDGAR): Core Scientific Form 8-K Ex. 99.1 — liquidity update and potential bankruptcy relief (2022-10-27) https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/0001839341/000119312522270236/d395956dex991.htm · Stretto: In re Core Scientific, Case No. 22-90341 (Bankr. S.D. Tex.) — claims docket (2022-12-21) https://cases.stretto.com/corescientific/ · U.S. SEC (EDGAR) / Bankr. S.D. Tex.: Monthly Operating Report, Core Scientific (8-K exhibit) (2023-06) https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1839341/000119312523157953/d478972dex991.htm
FTX — organized fraud Fraud 2022-11 confidence 92
Commingling customer funds with Alameda ← Balance-sheet hole covered by the FTT token ← Leak of Alameda's balance sheet ← A competitor announcing the sale of its holdings ← Bank run ← Withdrawal halt ← Bankruptcy and criminal conviction
Root cause: Customer funds were secretly lent to the investment arm and the Deficit was papered over with a self-issued token
Outcome: Conviction of the founder to 25 years; an 8 billion hole · Recovery: A relatively successful judicial Recovery 2024-2025
Contagion ← BLOCKFI-2022, GENESIS-2023
Signals before failure: Custody opacitySingle point of failureGovernance risk
Unknowns: The full political and marketing flows remain under judicial tracing
Sources: US v. SBF trial record 2023 · FTX debtors reports · Kroll Restructuring Administration: FTX Trading Ltd. Chapter 11 Docket, Case No. 22-11068 (Bankr. D. Del.) (2022-11) https://restructuring.ra.kroll.com/FTX/ · U.S. Bankruptcy Court D. Del. (via DocumentCloud): Declaration of John J. Ray III in Support of Chapter 11 Petitions (2022-11-17) https://www.documentcloud.org/documents/23310507-ftx-bankruptcy-filing-john-j-ray-iii/ · U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission: CFTC Charges Sam Bankman-Fried, FTX and Alameda with Fraud (Release 8638-22) (2022-12-13) https://www.cftc.gov/PressRoom/PressReleases/8638-22 · U.S. Department of Justice: FTX Founder Indicted for Fraud, Money Laundering, and Campaign Finance Offenses (2022-12-13) https://www.justice.gov/archives/opa/pr/ftx-founder-indicted-fraud-money-laundering-and-campaign-finance-offenses · U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission: SEC Charges Samuel Bankman-Fried with Defrauding Investors (PR 2022-219) (2022-12-13) https://www.sec.gov/newsroom/press-releases/2022-219 · U.S. House Committee on Financial Services: Written Testimony of John J. Ray III before the House Financial Services Committee (2022-12-13) https://democrats-financialservices.house.gov/uploadedfiles/hhrg-117-ba00-wstate-rayj-20221213.pdf · U.S. Department of Justice: Samuel Bankman-Fried Sentenced to 25 Years for His Orchestration of Multiple Fraudulent Schemes (2024-03-28) https://www.justice.gov/archives/opa/pr/samuel-bankman-fried-sentenced-25-years-his-orchestration-multiple-fraudulent-schemes · U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission: CFTC Obtains $12.7 Billion Judgment Against FTX and Alameda (Release 8938-24) (2024-08) https://www.cftc.gov/PressRoom/PressReleases/8938-24
Alameda — the arm that consumed the body Leverage failure 2022-11 confidence 90
Secret preferential access to FTX liquidity ← Leverage on self-issued collateral ← Accumulated losses from 2021 ← Balance-sheet exposure ← The twin downfall
Root cause: Collateral from a token issued by the group itself: a self-consuming loop
Outcome: Conviction of its director after she cooperated with the prosecution · Recovery: Within the FTX bankruptcy
Contagion ← FTX-2022
Signals before failure: Leverage expansionCustody opacity
Unknowns: The size of the hidden 2021 losses that started the spiral
Sources: Ellison testimony 2023 · U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission: CFTC Charges Sam Bankman-Fried, FTX Trading and Alameda with Fraud and Material Misrepresentations (2022-12-13) https://www.cftc.gov/PressRoom/PressReleases/8638-22 · U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission: SEC Charges Samuel Bankman-Fried with Defrauding Investors in Crypto Asset Trading Platform FTX (2022-12-13) https://www.sec.gov/newsroom/press-releases/2022-219 · FTX Debtors / U.S. Bankruptcy Court, District of Delaware: The Commingling and Misuse of Customer Deposits at FTX.com (Second Interim Report of John J. Ray III) (2023-06-26) https://business.cch.com/srd/20230626_FTX_Ray_report.pdf · U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission: CFTC Obtains $12.7 Billion Judgment Against FTX and Alameda (2024-08-07) https://www.cftc.gov/PressRoom/PressReleases/8938-24
FTT token — the phantom collateral Market structure failure 2022-11 confidence 87
A platform token with thin liquidity ← Used as collateral for massive loans ← Holding concentration at the issuer ← A large announced sale ← Spiral collapse
Root cause: Enormous book value atop meager actual liquidity — the collateral evaporates at the first serious sell
Outcome: The token lost 90%+ within hours · Recovery: No Recovery
Contagion ← FTX-2022
Signals before failure: Liquidity concentrationNarrative fragility
Unknowns: The true share of supply outside the group's hands at the moment of collapse
Sources: exchange order book records Nov 2022
BlockFi — the bailout that became a shackle Exchange failure 2022-11 confidence 85
Losses from Three Arrows Capital (3AC) ← Accepting a rescue credit line from FTX ← Collapse of the rescuer itself ← Immediate bankruptcy
Root cause: Tying one's fate to a single rescuer: when the rescuer fell, the rescued fell
Outcome: Bankruptcy in November 2022 · Recovery: Partial distributions nearly completed
Contagion ← FTX-2022
Signals before failure: Single point of failureTreasury stress
Unknowns: The full undisclosed terms of the credit line
Sources: chapter 11 filings Nov 2022 · U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission: BlockFi Agrees to Pay $100 Million in Penalties (PR 2022-26) (2022-02-14) https://www.sec.gov/newsroom/press-releases/2022-26 · Kroll Restructuring Administration: BlockFi Inc. — Restructuring Docket (2022-11) https://restructuring.ra.kroll.com/blockfi/ · U.S. Bankruptcy Court D.N.J.: BlockFi Inc., 22-19361 (MBK) — Case Information Page (2022-11-28) https://www.njb.uscourts.gov/BlockFi · BlockFi (via Business Wire): BlockFi's Disclosure Statement Conditionally Approved by Court (2023-08-02) https://www.businesswire.com/news/home/20230802310688/en/BlockFi%E2%80%99s-Disclosure-Statement-Conditionally-Approved-by-Court · BlockFi via Kroll: BlockFi Emerges from Bankruptcy (estate announcement) (2023-10-24) https://restructuring.ra.kroll.com/blockfi/ExternalCall-DownloadPDF?id1=MjU4MTIyOA%3D%3D&id2=0&cid=0 · Reuters via U.S. News (secondary, top-tier): FTX Reaches Settlement With BlockFi, May Pay up to $874 Million (2024-03-06) https://money.usnews.com/investing/news/articles/2024-03-06/ftx-reaches-settlement-with-blockfi-may-pay-up-to-874-million
Deribit — the derivatives hot wallet Exchange failure 2022-11 confidence 74
$28 million hot wallet breach ← Coverage from the company treasury ← Continued operation without interruption
Root cause: A strong treasury turns a Breach into a passing event
Outcome: The model of successful absorption · Recovery: Instant Full
Contagion ← No documented contagion
Signals before failure: Custody opacity
Unknowns:
Sources: statement Nov 2022
Bitfront — Line's wind-down Exchange failure 2022-11 confidence 70
Shutdown decision in the depths of winter 2022 ← An orderly schedule for the wind-down ← A rare clean exit
Root cause: Orderly withdrawal is an option the failing overlook
Outcome: The model of a respectable shutdown · Recovery: Full
Contagion ← FTX-2022
Signals before failure: Treasury stress
Unknowns:
Sources: Nov 2022
AAX — the upgrade pretext Fraud 2022-11 confidence 68
Freezing withdrawals on the pretext of a system upgrade ← Gradual disappearance of management ← Subsequent arrests
Root cause: The post-FTX days exposed everyone who was naked
Outcome: The upgrade that never ended · Recovery: None approximately
Contagion ← FTX-2022
Signals before failure: Custody opacityNarrative fragility
Unknowns: The fate of the assets
Sources: HK arrests 2023 · Cointelegraph: 2 executives of crypto exchange AAX arrested in Hong Kong: Report (2022-12) https://cointelegraph.com/news/2-executives-of-crypto-exchange-aax-arrested-in-hong-kong-report · FinanceFeeds: AAX exec flees with $30 million, two arrested in Hong Kong (2022-12) https://financefeeds.com/aax-exec-flees-with-30-million-two-arrested-in-hong-kong/ · AMBCrypto: Everything about Hong Kong-based exchange AAX and the red flags around it (2022-12) https://ambcrypto.com/everything-about-hong-kong-based-exchange-aax-and-the-red-flags-around-it/ · Cointelegraph (Cyvers Alerts data): $56M moved from defunct exchange after executives fled: Report (2024-02) https://cointelegraph.com/news/56-million-moved-defunct-exchange-executives-fled-report · CoinGape: Hong Kong's Failed AAX Exchange Transfers $56M in Ether (2024-02) https://coingape.com/hong-kongs-failed-aax-exchange-transfers-56m-in-ether/
StaFi — fragile liquid staking collateral Protocol failure 2022-11 confidence 58
De-peg pressure after the FTX collapse ← Liquid collateral exposed to thin liquidity ← Extended depeg
Root cause: Liquid staking assumes Exit liquidity that does not hold up in a panic
Outcome: — · Recovery: Slow recovery
Contagion ← FTX-2022
Signals before failure: Liquidity concentrationNarrative fragility
Unknowns:
Sources: Nov 2022
Infura — a centralized chokepoint Infrastructure failure 2022-11 confidence 66
Wallets and protocols relying on a single access provider ← An outage that disrupts access ← Exposure of the backend infrastructure's centralization
Root cause: A chain's decentralization does not mean decentralized access to it
Outcome: A repeat of the node-provider centralization lesson · Recovery: Resumption
Contagion ← INFURA-2020
Signals before failure: Single point of failure
Unknowns:
Sources: Nov 2022 · The Block: Infura is down, crypto exchanges begin to disable ETH withdrawals (2020-11) https://www.theblock.co/post/84232/ethereum-infrastructure-provider-infura-is-down · Infura / ConsenSys: Infura Status (official incident history) (2022-04-22) https://status.infura.io/ · The Block: MetaMask stops working as Infura suffers another service outage (2022-04-22) https://www.theblock.co/post/143047/metamask-stops-working-as-infura-suffers-another-service-outage · Decrypt: MetaMask, Ethereum Apps Down as Infura Suffers Outage (2022-04-22) https://decrypt.co/98457/metamask-ethereum-apps-down-infura-outage
SALT Lending — secured lending falters Exchange failure 2022-11 confidence 58
Exposure to a bear market ← Suspension of withdrawals ← Restructuring
Root cause: Secured lending does not protect against a Collateral collapse itself
Outcome: — · Recovery: Partial
Contagion ← FTX-2022
Signals before failure: Treasury stress
Unknowns:
Sources: Nov 2022
The Sandbox and Decentraland — land without inhabitants Market structure failure 2022-11 confidence 64
Speculation on virtual land ← Minimal actual usage ← A collapse of values of 90%+
Root cause: Value without real use reverts to its true worth
Outcome: The death of the virtual land bubble · Recovery: Collapse
Contagion ← No documented contagion
Signals before failure: Narrative fragilityLiquidity concentration
Unknowns:
Sources: 2022-23
Leveraged mining funds — synchronized death Treasury failure 2022-11 confidence 60
Debt-funded mining models ← Collapse synchronized with the cycle ← Cascading bankruptcies
Root cause: The entire mining sector is hostage to a single price and a single rate
Outcome: Archive of the mining sector Collapse 2022 · Recovery: A wave of Bankruptcy
Contagion ← COMPUTE-NORTH-2022
Signals before failure: Treasury stressLeverage expansion
Unknowns:
Sources: 2022 aggregated
FTX contagion — the cascading fall Governance failure 2022-11 confidence 76
FTX collapse freezes the exposed ← A chain of suspensions and bankruptcies ← A broader contagion wave of collapse
Root cause: Counterparty concentration turns a fall into Sector-wide contagion
Outcome: The most comprehensive contagion map in history · Recovery: Cascading bankruptcies
Contagion ← FTX-2022
Signals before failure: Single point of failure
Unknowns:
Sources: Nov 2022 · Bloomberg (secondary, top-tier): From Genesis to Gemini, How FTX's Crypto Collapse Signals No One Is Safe (2022-11-16) https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2022-11-16/tracking-the-crypto-contagion-genesis-gemini-latest-ensnared · CNBC (secondary, top-tier): Genesis lending unit halts withdrawals in aftermath of FTX collapse (2022-11-16) https://www.cnbc.com/2022/11/16/genesis-lending-unit-halts-withdrawals-in-aftermath-of-ftx-collapse.html · CoinDesk: Genesis' Crypto-Lending Unit Is Halting Customer Withdrawals (2022-11-16) https://www.coindesk.com/business/2022/11/16/genesis-crypto-lending-unit-is-halting-customer-withdrawals-in-wake-of-ftx-collapse · NPR: Fears of crypto contagion from FTX grow (2022-11-22) https://www.npr.org/2022/11/22/1138639733/crypto-contagion-ftx-genesis-blockfi · Kroll: In re BlockFi, Case No. 22-19361 (Bankr. D.N.J.) — restructuring docket (2022-11-28) https://restructuring.ra.kroll.com/blockfi/ · U.S. SEC: SEC Charges Genesis and Gemini (Gemini Earn) (2023-01-12) https://www.sec.gov/newsroom/press-releases/2023-7
Mango Markets — governance oracle exploit Protocol failure 2022-10 confidence 86
Pumping a low-liquidity token's price via concentrated buying ← Artificially inflating collateral ← Borrowing the entire treasury against it ← Public governance extortion
Root cause: An oracle pricing from a thin market: whoever moves the thin market moves the collateral
Outcome: Federal conviction of the exploiter in 2024 then its Partial reversal · Recovery: The protocol recovered a portion
Contagion ← No documented contagion
Signals before failure: Liquidity concentrationGovernance risk
Unknowns: A legal precedent still in the balance: manipulation or trading?
Sources: US v. Eisenberg record · on-chain exploit trace Oct 2022
BNB Bridge — a forged proof and a chain halt Bridge failure 2022-10 confidence 84
Forging a proof in the original chain's bridge ← Minting 2 million BNB ← Halting the entire chain in a coordinated way ← Limiting the damage to the 100 million that exited
Root cause: A proof-verification vulnerability in the chain's oldest Bridge
Outcome: Proved that "decentralization" stops at a single coordinated call · Recovery: Most was frozen
Contagion ← No documented contagion
Signals before failure: Bridge dependencySingle point of failure
Unknowns: The paradox of the centralized halt saving the funds while exposing the centralization
Sources: chain halt records Oct 2022 · Elliptic: Attack mints $569 million-worth of BNB tokens in BSC bridge exploit (2022-10) https://www.elliptic.co/blog/analysis/attack-mints-569-million-worth-of-bnb-tokens-in-bsc-bridge-exploit · BNB Chain (official blog): BNB Chain Ecosystem Update (BSC Token Hub exploit and chain halt) (2022-10) https://www.bnbchain.org/en/blog/bnb-chain-ecosystem-update · Nansen Research: BNB Chain's Cross-Chain Bridge Exploit Explained (2022-10) https://www.nansen.ai/research/bnb-chains-cross-chain-bridge-exploit-explained · Halborn: Explained: The BNB Chain Hack (October 2022) (2022-10) https://www.halborn.com/blog/post/explained-the-bnb-chain-hack-october-2022
HUSD — the abandoned-protocol stablecoin Stablecoin failure 2022-10 confidence 68
Issuer split from the parent protocol ← Liquidity dries up ← Silent depeg ← Fade-out
Root cause: A stablecoin without a living sponsor = Slow death
Outcome: Vanished almost silently · Recovery: None
Contagion ← No documented contagion
Signals before failure: Single point of failure
Unknowns: The fate of the last reserves
Sources: depeg records Oct 2022
Venus and the BNB Bridge — the toxic position Liquidity failure 2022-10 confidence 74
The bridge hacker deposited collateral in Venus ← Borrowed against it ← A toxic position on top of the protocol ← Exceptional handling via governance
Root cause: A Breach's loot turned into a systemic lending hub
Outcome: A precedent for governing a compromised hub · Recovery: Successful Containment
Contagion ← BNBBRIDGE-2022
Signals before failure: Leverage expansion
Unknowns:
Sources: governance records
Temple DAO — a broken migration key Protocol failure 2022-10 confidence 58
Flaw in the rewards-migration contract ← Draining of a pool ← 2.3 million
Root cause: Temporary migration contracts are written in haste
Outcome: — · Recovery: Partial
Contagion ← No documented contagion
Signals before failure: Single point of failure
Unknowns:
Sources: Oct 2022
BNB Chain — the emergency bridge halt Infrastructure failure 2022-10 confidence 74
A bridge exploit with a potential billion ← Emergency halt of the entire chain ← Governance that limits the damage
Root cause: Halting a Full chain for Bridge Containment exposes the centralization
Outcome: The precedent of manually halting a major chain · Recovery: Containment
Contagion ← BNBBRIDGE-2022
Signals before failure: Single point of failure
Unknowns:
Sources: Oct 2022 · Nansen: BNB Chain's Cross-Chain Bridge Exploit Explained (2022-10) https://www.nansen.ai/research/bnb-chains-cross-chain-bridge-exploit-explained · Halborn: Explained: The BNB Chain Hack (October 2022) (2022-10) https://www.halborn.com/blog/post/explained-the-bnb-chain-hack-october-2022 · CoinDesk: BNB Chain Halts After 'Potential Exploit' (2022-10-06) https://www.coindesk.com/business/2022/10/06/binance-linked-bnb-price-falls-close-to-4-on-hack-rumors · CNBC (secondary, top-tier): $570 million worth of Binance's BNB token stolen (2022-10-07) https://www.cnbc.com/2022/10/07/more-than-100-million-worth-of-binances-bnb-token-stolen-in-another-major-crypto-hack.html · BNB Chain (official blog): BNB Chain Ecosystem Update (2022-10-07) https://www.bnbchain.org/en/blog/bnb-chain-ecosystem-update · The Block: BNB Chain executes hard fork to secure network (2022-10-12) https://www.theblock.co/post/176511/bnb-chain-executes-hard-fork-to-secure-network-after-100-million-hack
Argo Blockchain — miner on the edge Treasury failure 2022-10 confidence 62
Acute liquidity pressure ← Emergency asset sale ← Bailout on harsh terms
Root cause: Mining margins evaporate in down markets
Outcome: — · Recovery: Conditional survival
Contagion ← CORE-SCIENTIFIC-2022
Signals before failure: Treasury stress
Unknowns:
Sources: Oct 2022 · Argo Blockchain plc (LSE RNS): Regulatory News Service (RNS) | Argo Blockchain (2022) https://www.argoblockchain.com/investors/news/rns · Cointelegraph: Argo Blockchain Reports Insufficient Funds, 'No Assurance' It Can Avoid Chapter 11 Bankruptcy (2022-10) https://cointelegraph.com/news/argo-blockchain-reports-insufficient-funds-no-assurance-it-can-avoid-chapter-11-bankruptcy · Data Center Dynamics: Argo Blockchain Accidentally Publishes Draft Bankruptcy Documents, Admits It's Running Out of Cash (2022-12) https://www.datacenterdynamics.com/en/news/argo-blockchain-accidentally-publishes-draft-bankruptcy-documents-admits-its-running-out-of-cash/ · CoinDesk: Shares of Bitcoin Miner Argo Blockchain Suspended in UK and US (2022-12-09) https://www.coindesk.com/business/2022/12/09/shares-of-bitcoin-miner-argo-blockchain-suspended-in-uk-and-us
Wintermute — the flawed vanity address Protocol failure 2022-09 confidence 83
A vanity address generated with the Profanity tool ← The vulnerability of a derivable seed ← Key extraction ← Withdrawal of 160 million from the funding treasury
Root cause: A mathematically broken address-generation tool was used for an enormous operational wallet
Outcome: Absorbed the loss from capital and continued · Recovery: Internal absorption
Contagion ← No documented contagion
Signals before failure: Custody opacitySingle point of failure
Unknowns: The perpetrator was never attributed
Sources: profanity vuln disclosure 2022
Compute North — mining infrastructure goes bankrupt Treasury failure 2022-09 confidence 70
Over-expansion on debt ← Price collapse and rising energy costs ← Chapter 11 bankruptcy
Root cause: Debt-funded expansion collapses with the cycle
Outcome: The first major mining infrastructure Bankruptcy · Recovery: Bankruptcy
Contagion ← No documented contagion
Signals before failure: Treasury stressLeverage expansion
Unknowns:
Sources: Sep 2022
Nomad Bridge — the collective looting Bridge failure 2022-08 confidence 86
A contract upgrade with an initialization error ← An empty proof being accepted ← Collective discovery of the vulnerability ← Open looting of 190 million by copy-paste
Root cause: A single initialization error made every proof valid — the first "mass" Exploit in history
Outcome: A portion was recovered through a white-hat initiative · Recovery: Partial Weak
Contagion ← No documented contagion
Signals before failure: Bridge dependencySingle point of failure
Unknowns: Most small looters were never traced
Sources: exploit post-mortem Aug 2022
Hodlnaut — the hidden Terra exposure Exchange failure 2022-08 confidence 77
Public denial of exposure to Terra ← An actual 190 million loss in it ← Withdrawal freeze ← Singapore judicial management
Root cause: Lied to customers about the Exposure after the Collapse
Outcome: Singaporean criminal investigation · Recovery: Partial
Contagion ← TERRA-2022
Signals before failure: Reserve mismatchCustody opacity
Unknowns: The internal exposure decisions and who made them
Sources: SG judicial mgmt filings
Slope — seed phrases leaked to the server Protocol failure 2022-08 confidence 76
Wallet sends seed phrases to a telemetry service ← Plaintext on centralized servers ← 8,000 Solana wallets drained
Root cause: A "decentralized" wallet shipping users' secrets to its server
Outcome: Panic across the Solana ecosystem until the source became clear · Recovery: None
Contagion ← No documented contagion
Signals before failure: Custody opacity
Unknowns: Access scope to the leaked data before the exploit
Sources: joint post-mortem Aug 2022
Acala — 1.2B minted by mistake Stablecoin failure 2022-08 confidence 76
Misconfigured liquidity pool ← Accidental mint of 1.2B aUSD ← Emergency vote to burn them ← Peg temporarily broken
Root cause: An initialization error with minting privileges — not an attack but a mistake
Outcome: The peg was restored after the governance burn · Recovery: Near-complete
Contagion ← No documented contagion
Signals before failure: Single point of failure
Unknowns:
Sources: incident report Aug 2022
Forsage — the "transparent" Ponzi Fraud 2022-08 confidence 79
Openly pyramidal smart contracts ← Claiming open-source code disproves fraud ← SEC pursuit and convictions
Root cause: A pyramid programmed openly — transparency does not cleanse the structure
Outcome: Precedent: the smart contract does not immunize from securities law · Recovery: None
Contagion ← No documented contagion
Signals before failure: Artificial yield
Unknowns:
Sources: SEC charges 2022, convictions
Tornado — sanctions on code Governance failure 2022-08 confidence 82
U.S. sanctions on a smart contract ← Developer arrests ← The code-as-free-speech debate ← A later partial judicial reversal
Root cause: The first sanction on a protocol rather than an entity — an existential precedent for the sector
Outcome: The boundaries of software liability were redrawn Judicially · Recovery: Ongoing dispute and a Partial reversal
Contagion ← No documented contagion
Signals before failure: Governance risk
Unknowns: The ultimate benchmark for developer liability
Sources: OFAC 2022, courts 2023-2025 · U.S. Treasury OFAC: U.S. Treasury Sanctions Notorious Virtual Currency Mixer Tornado Cash (2022-08-08) https://home.treasury.gov/news/press-releases/jy0916 · U.S. Treasury OFAC: Treasury redesignation of Tornado Cash (DPRK justification) (2022-11-08) https://home.treasury.gov/news/press-releases/jy1087 · CoinDesk: Tornado Cash Devs Charged With Helping Hackers Launder $1B (2023-08-23) https://www.coindesk.com/policy/2023/08/23/tornado-cash-devs-arrested-on-money-laundering-sanctions-violation-grounds-over-alleged-1b-moved · U.S. DOJ SDNY: Tornado Cash Founders Charged With Money Laundering And Sanctions Violations (2023-08-23) https://www.justice.gov/usao-sdny/pr/tornado-cash-founders-charged-money-laundering-and-sanctions-violations · U.S. Treasury OFAC: Treasury Designates Roman Semenov (2023-08-23) https://home.treasury.gov/news/press-releases/jy1702
ZB — silence then bleeding Exchange failure 2022-08 confidence 60
Suspicious $4.8 million outflows ← Withdrawal suspension on the pretext of a malfunction ← Gradual withering
Root cause: Loses its assets and calls it protocol maintenance
Outcome: — · Recovery: Opaque
Contagion ← No documented contagion
Signals before failure: Custody opacity
Unknowns: The insider truth
Sources: onchain Aug 2022
Meson — drain of the emerging bridge Bridge failure 2022-08 confidence 60
Vulnerability in the transfer logic ← Draining of limited liquidity ← Immediate suspension
Root cause: Young bridges carry vulnerabilities not sufficiently Validated
Outcome: Part of the summer 2022 bridge-panic wave · Recovery: Partial
Contagion ← NOMAD-2022
Signals before failure: Single point of failure
Unknowns:
Sources: Aug 2022
Shiden and Cosmo — exploits of the new layers Protocol failure 2022-08 confidence 54
Contract vulnerabilities on emerging networks ← Scattered small drains ← Recurring patterns
Root cause: New environments repeat the errors of old environments
Outcome: An archive of emerging-network vulnerabilities · Recovery: Mixed
Contagion ← No documented contagion
Signals before failure: Single point of failure
Unknowns:
Sources: 2022 aggregated
Beanstalk — resurrection after the takeover Governance failure 2022-08 confidence 62
Relaunch after the governance seizure ← Partial restoration of trust ← Debate over governance protection
Root cause: Resurrection is possible but trust does not return Full
Outcome: A rare model of recovery after a takeover · Recovery: Partial recovery
Contagion ← BEANSTALK-2022
Signals before failure: Governance risk
Unknowns:
Sources: Aug 2022 · Beanstalk Farms (bean.money): BIP-21 Proposal Announcement (2022-08) https://bean.money/blog/bip-21-proposal-announcement · BeanstalkFarms GitHub: BIP-21: Replant Beanstalk (Pull Request #72) (2022-08) https://github.com/BeanstalkFarms/Beanstalk/pull/72 · FXEmpire: Beanstalk's Stablecoin Protocol Relaunches 4 Months After $182 Million Exploit (2022-08) https://www.fxempire.com/news/article/beanstalks-stablecoin-protocol-relaunches-4-months-after-182-million-exploit-1089492 · Beanstalk Farms (bean.money): Beanstalk Farms' 2022 Roundup (2022-12) https://bean.money/blog/beanstalk-farms-2022-roundup
Celer — hijacking of the bridge routing Bridge failure 2022-08 confidence 60
Hijacking of the frontend's DNS ← Routing of users to a malicious contract ← Limited losses
Root cause: Front-end hijacking as a substitute for a contract Breach
Outcome: 2022 wave of domain hijacking · Recovery: Limited
Contagion ← BADGER-FRONT-2021
Signals before failure: Single point of failure
Unknowns:
Sources: Aug 2022
BendDAO — the NFT liquidity crisis Liquidity failure 2022-08 confidence 66
Lending secured by collectibles ← Price collapse that threatens insolvency ← Emergency adjustment of the parameters
Root cause: A collectibles lending protocol nearly becomes insolvent when liquidity dries up
Outcome: Survived via an emergency governance amendment · Recovery: Containment
Contagion ← BAYC-LIQUIDITY-2022
Signals before failure: Liquidity concentrationLeverage expansion
Unknowns:
Sources: Aug 2022 · Crypto Briefing: BendDAO Hit by Insolvency Crisis as Ethereum Reserves Drained (2022-08) https://cryptobriefing.com/benddao-hit-insolvency-crisis-ethereum-reserves-drained/ · Blockworks: BendDAO Proposes Emergency Changes During Liquidity Crisis (2022-08) https://blockworks.co/news/dao-liquidity-crisis · Bankless (Metaversal): The BendDAO bank run (2022-08) https://www.bankless.com/the-benddao-bank-run- · CoinDesk: Bank Run at NFT Lender BendDAO Prompts Attempt to Avert Another Liquidity Crisis (2022-08-22) https://www.coindesk.com/business/2022/08/22/bank-run-at-nft-lender-benddao-prompts-attempt-to-avert-another-liquidity-crisis
The free-NFT wave — inflation and collapse Market structure failure 2022-08 confidence 54
Free mints that ignite speculation ← Rise and collapse within days ← Evaporation of liquidity
Root cause: Artificial scarcity is fuel for Rapid-burning speculation
Outcome: Archive of short collectibles cycles · Recovery: Collapse
Contagion ← No documented contagion
Signals before failure: Narrative fragilityLiquidity concentration
Unknowns:
Sources: 2022
Voyager — fatal concentration in a single borrower Exchange failure 2022-07 confidence 86
Lending 650 million to Three Arrows Capital (3AC) alone ← Borrower default ← Liquidity crisis ← Freeze then bankruptcy
Root cause: A third of the assets in a single unsecured loan — fatal credit concentration
Outcome: Bankruptcy; a failed acquisition deal with FTX made matters worse · Recovery: Partial distributions
Contagion ← 3AC-2022
Signals before failure: Liquidity concentrationSingle point of failure
Unknowns: Why did the risk committee exceed concentration limits? Internal documentation is sealed
Sources: chapter 11 filings July 2022 · U.S. Bankruptcy Court SDNY: In Re: 22-10943-mew Voyager Digital Holdings, Inc. (2022-07) https://www.nysb.uscourts.gov/content/re-22-10943-mew-voyager-digital-holdings-inc-0 · CNBC (secondary, top-tier): Voyager Digital files for Chapter 11 bankruptcy protection (2022-07-06) https://www.cnbc.com/2022/07/06/crypto-firm-voyager-digital-files-for-chapter-11-bankruptcy-protection.html · Fortune (secondary, top-tier): Voyager files for bankruptcy after 3AC fails to pay back $650 million loan (2022-07-06) https://fortune.com/2022/07/06/crypto-lender-voyager-digital-files-for-bankruptcy-three-arrows-capital-fails-to-pay-650-million-loan/ · FDIC: FDIC PR-22-056 with cease-and-desist letter (2022-07-28) https://www.fdic.gov/news/press-releases/2022/pr22056.html · Federal Reserve Board: FDIC and Federal Reserve letter demanding Voyager cease and desist false deposit-insurance representations (2022-07-28) https://www.federalreserve.gov/newsevents/pressreleases/bcreg20220728a.htm · Stretto: Chapter 11 pleading, In re Voyager Digital Holdings (Stretto docket) (2023-04) https://cases.stretto.com/public/x193/11753/PLEADINGS/1175304252380000000171.pdf
Vauld — the Asian lender contagion Exchange failure 2022-07 confidence 74
Exposure to Terra and Three Arrows Capital (3AC) ← Mass withdrawals ← Freeze ← Singapore judicial protection
Root cause: A yield model funded by others' risk
Outcome: A rescue deal stalled for years · Recovery: Partial, stalled
Contagion ← TERRA-2022, 3AC-2022
Signals before failure: Artificial yieldReserve mismatch
Unknowns: The final gap to creditors
Sources: SG moratorium filings · TechCrunch: Crypto lending platform Vauld suspends withdrawals, trading and deposits amid financial challenges (2022-07-04) https://techcrunch.com/2022/07/04/crypto-lending-platform-vauld-suspends-withdrawals-trading-and-deposits-amid-financial-challenges · Supreme Court of Singapore / Singapore Judiciary: Information Note on Defi Payments Hearing on 1 August 2022 (2022-08-01) https://www.judiciary.gov.sg/news-and-resources/news/news-details/information-note-on-defi-payments-hearing-on-1-august-2022 · Bloomberg Law: Singapore Gives Vauld Parent Three-Month Creditor Protection (2022-08-01) https://news.bloomberglaw.com/crypto/singapore-grants-vauld-parent-three-month-creditor-protection · CoinDesk: Troubled Crypto Lender Vauld Granted 3-Month Moratorium by Singapore High Court (2022-08-01) https://www.coindesk.com/business/2022/08/01/troubled-crypto-lender-vauld-granted-3-month-moratorium-by-singapore-high-court
Zipmex — the Babel and Celsius contagion Exchange failure 2022-07 confidence 73
Deposits placed with Babel and Celsius ← Collapse of the two intermediaries ← Freezing of the yield product ← Judicial management
Root cause: The platform's yield was merely re-depositing with collapsed entities
Outcome: Collapse of the rescue deal · Recovery: Partial Weak
Contagion ← BABEL-2022, CELSIUS-2022
Signals before failure: Artificial yieldSingle point of failure
Unknowns: Pre-crisis disclosures to customers
Sources: TH/SG filings 2022 · Cointelegraph: Breaking: Zipmex suspends withdrawals as CEO denies financial trouble rumors (2022-07-20) https://cointelegraph.com/news/breaking-zipmex-suspends-withdrawals-as-ceo-denies-financial-trouble-rumors · Bloomberg: Crypto Woes Spread as Celsius, Babel Links Hit Another Exchange (Zipmex) (2022-07-21) https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2022-07-21/crypto-woes-spread-as-celsius-babel-links-hit-another-exchange · CoinDesk: Zipmex Files for Bankruptcy Protection in Singapore (2022-07-28) https://www.coindesk.com/business/2022/07/28/zipmex-files-for-bankruptcy-protection-in-singapore · Cointelegraph: Zipmex gets 3-month protection in Singapore amid halted withdrawals (2022-08) https://cointelegraph.com/news/zipmex-gets-3-month-protection-in-singapore-amid-halted-withdrawals
Crema — forging the tick account Protocol failure 2022-07 confidence 71
A forged tick-tree account ← Solana flash loans ← 9 million theft ← Return deal with a bounty
Root cause: Trusting account data without ownership verification
Outcome: Recovered most through a deal · Recovery: Near-complete
Contagion ← No documented contagion
Signals before failure: Single point of failure
Unknowns:
Sources: post-mortem Jul 2022
Nirvana — minting via flash loan Protocol failure 2022-07 confidence 72
Flash loan inflating the collateral ← Minting ANA and NIRV at a manipulated price ← Dump and 90% collapse
Root cause: A mint mechanism that trusts a real-time price that can be manipulated
Outcome: A later Partial Recovery with a US Judicial Prosecution · Recovery: Partial
Contagion ← No documented contagion
Signals before failure: Single point of failureLeverage expansion
Unknowns:
Sources: DOJ 2023
Coinbase — the first insider trading case Fraud 2022-07 confidence 78
An employee leaking the listing schedule ← His brother and friend buying ahead ← The first insider-trading conviction in digital assets
Root cause: Listing Knowledge is internal property liable to theft
Outcome: A precedent that extended to all platforms · Recovery: Prison sentences
Contagion ← No documented contagion
Signals before failure: Governance risk
Unknowns:
Sources: DOJ 2022-23
Invictus — a crypto fund evaporates Fraud 2022-07 confidence 56
Concentrated exposure to collapsing assets ← Freezing of redemptions ← Liquidation
Root cause: Concentrated asset management without hedging collapses en masse
Outcome: — · Recovery: Partial
Contagion ← 3AC-2022
Signals before failure: Single point of failure
Unknowns:
Sources: 2022
Midas Investments — the impossible yield Fraud 2022-07 confidence 58
Promise of a high fixed yield ← Hidden exposure to high-risk DeFi ← Collapse and liquidation
Root cause: Fixed yield atop Volatile assets = a deferred pyramid
Outcome: — · Recovery: Weak
Contagion ← CELSIUS-2022
Signals before failure: Artificial yieldCustody opacity
Unknowns:
Sources: 2022
Three Arrows Capital (3AC) — leverage collapse Leverage failure 2022-06 confidence 88
Massive leverage via unsecured loans from every lender ← Concentration in Terra and GBTC ← Terra loss ← Simultaneous margin calls ← Insolvency and court-ordered liquidation
Root cause: Unsecured borrowing from numerous parties unaware of one another — hidden systemic leverage
Outcome: Deficit of ~3 billion; the founders fled then were pursued · Recovery: Ongoing Liquidation in the courts
Contagion ← GENESIS-2023, VOYAGER-2022, BLOCKFI-2022
Signals before failure: Leverage expansionCustody opacity
Unknowns: The full scale of the interlocking liabilities was not known until after the collapse
Sources: BVI liquidation filings 2022 · creditor disclosures · Bloomberg Law (secondary, top-tier): Crypto Hedge Fund Three Arrows Set for Liquidation (2022-06-29) https://news.bloomberglaw.com/bankruptcy-law/crypto-hedge-fund-three-arrows-said-to-get-liquidation-order · Monetary Authority of Singapore: MAS Reprimands Three Arrows Capital (2022-06-30) https://www.mas.gov.sg/regulation/enforcement/enforcement-actions/2022/mas-reprimands-three-arrows-capital-for-providing-false-information-and-exceeding-assets-under-management-threshold · U.S. GPO govinfo.gov: USCOURTS-nysb-1_22-bk-10920 — court records (2022-07) https://www.govinfo.gov/app/details/USCOURTS-nysb-1_22-bk-10920 · U.S. Bankruptcy Court SDNY (via DocumentCloud): Chapter 15 Petition for Recognition, Three Arrows Capital, Ltd. (2022-07-01) https://www.documentcloud.org/documents/22077923-three-arrows-capital-bankruptcy-filing · U.S. Bankruptcy Court SDNY: In re: 22-10920-mg Three Arrows Capital, Ltd — Case Page (2022-07-01) https://www.nysb.uscourts.gov/content/re-22-10920-mg-three-arrows-capital-ltd-and-christopher-farmer · U.S. Bankruptcy Court SDNY: Memorandum Opinion and Order, In re Three Arrows Capital, Ltd. (2022-12) https://www.nysb.uscourts.gov/sites/default/files/opinions/312810_79_opinion.pdf
Celsius — the disguised shadow bank Exchange failure 2022-06 confidence 88
Yield promises on deposits ← Speculation with customer funds ← Accumulating hidden losses ← Withdrawal freeze ← Chapter 11 bankruptcy
Root cause: A bank model without banking regulation: customer assets were gambled to cover yield promises
Outcome: Criminal Prosecution of the founder and his conviction in 2024 · Recovery: Partial distributions to creditors in 2024
Contagion ← GENESIS-2023
Signals before failure: Artificial yieldCustody opacityReserve mismatch
Unknowns: The true balance-sheet gap months before the freeze — when did it actually begin?
Sources: bankruptcy examiner report 2023 · DOJ v. Mashinsky · Vermont Department of Financial Regulation: Consumer Alert: Celsius Network Files Chapter 11 Bankruptcy (2022-07) https://dfr.vermont.gov/consumer-alert/celsius-network-files-chapter-11-bankruptcy · Stretto: Celsius Network LLC — Chapter 11 Case Docket (2022-07-13) https://cases.stretto.com/celsius/ · U.S. Bankruptcy Court SDNY (via Stretto): Final Report of Shoba Pillay, Examiner (Case No. 22-10964) (2023-01-31) https://cases.stretto.com/public/x191/11749/PLEADINGS/1174901312380000000039.pdf · U.S. Department of Justice: Indictment, United States v. Mashinsky and Cohen-Pavon (S.D.N.Y.) (2023-07) https://www.justice.gov/d9/2023-07/u.s._v._mashinsky_and_cohen-pavon_indictment.pdf · U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission: CFTC Charges Mashinsky and Celsius (Release 8749-23) (2023-07-13) https://www.cftc.gov/PressRoom/PressReleases/8749-23 · U.S. DOJ, U.S. Attorney's Office SDNY: Celsius Founder and Former CRO Charged (2023-07-13) https://www.justice.gov/usao-sdny/pr/celsius-founder-and-former-chief-revenue-officer-charged-connection-multibillion · U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission: SEC Charges Celsius and Mashinsky with Fraud (PR 2023-133) (2023-07-13) https://www.sec.gov/newsroom/press-releases/2023-133 · U.S. DOJ, U.S. Attorney's Office SDNY: Founder of Celsius Sentenced to 12 Years (2025-05-08) https://www.justice.gov/usao-sdny/pr/founder-celsius-sentenced-12-years-fraud-and-market-manipulation
Babel Finance — speculation with customer funds Exchange failure 2022-06 confidence 75
Losses on directional positions with customer funds ← Margin calls ← Freeze ← Collapse of the restructuring
Root cause: A lender trading with its customers' assets without authorization
Outcome: The restructuring revealed destructive proprietary trading · Recovery: None approximately
Contagion ← 3AC-2022
Signals before failure: Leverage expansionCustody opacity
Unknowns: The scale of proprietary trading versus market losses
Sources: restructuring docs 2022 · CoinDesk: Babel Finance Suspends Withdrawals, Citing 'Unusual Liquidity Pressures' (2022-06-17) https://www.coindesk.com/business/2022/06/17/babel-finance-suspends-withdrawals-citing-unusual-liquidity-pressures · The Block: Babel Finance lost over $280 million in proprietary trading with customer funds (2022-07) https://www.theblock.co/post/160230/babel-finance-crypto-lost-280-million-proprietary-trading-restructuring · CoinDesk: Lender Babel Finance Lost $280M Trading Customer Funds: Report (2022-07-29) https://www.coindesk.com/business/2022/07/29/babel-finance-lost-280m-trading-customer-funds · Babel Finance / PR Newswire: Babel Finance Files Moratorium Application in Singapore High Court (2023-03-06) https://www.prnewswire.com/news-releases/babel-finance-files-moratorium-application-in-singapore-high-court-301763460.html
Harmony Bridge — two signatures suffice Bridge failure 2022-06 confidence 82
A 2-of-5 multisig ← Compromise of two keys ← Withdrawal of 100 million ← Laundering via Tornado
Root cause: A weak signing threshold for enormous assets
Outcome: Attributed to Lazarus · Recovery: None approximately
Contagion ← No documented contagion
Signals before failure: Bridge dependencyCustody opacity
Unknowns: Why did the 2/5 threshold remain despite the warnings?
Sources: FBI attribution 2023
Solend — seizing the whale via governance Governance failure 2022-06 confidence 78
Concentrated whale threatens the protocol with catastrophic liquidation ← Governance proposal to take over his account ← Passed by a single-wallet majority ← Reversal under the storm
Root cause: Panic drove governance to violate property — and revealed that "decentralization" is a mood-based decision
Outcome: Full Retreat and the enactment of voting timelocks · Recovery: No losses — a crisis of principle
Contagion ← No documented contagion
Signals before failure: Governance riskLiquidity concentration
Unknowns:
Sources: governance records Jun 2022
Celsius — the era of the internally propped token Market structure failure 2022-06 confidence 78
Systematic insider buying to prop up the platform token ← Using it as collateral and compensation ← The propping exposed with bankruptcy
Root cause: A token its issuer's treasury manages as if it were a free market
Outcome: Documented in detail by the examiner's suit · Recovery: Within the bankruptcy
Contagion ← CELSIUS-2022
Signals before failure: Narrative fragilityCustody opacity
Unknowns:
Sources: examiner report 2023
Stablegains — the hidden third-party yield Fraud 2022-06 confidence 72
A consumer savings product ← The funds were actually in Anchor/UST ← Collapse of the underlying ← Fraud lawsuits
Root cause: A broker hid where it placed customer funds
Outcome: The model of disguised-yield brokers · Recovery: None approximately
Contagion ← TERRA-2022
Signals before failure: Artificial yieldCustody opacity
Unknowns:
Sources: lawsuits 2022
Osmosis — the liquidity-ratio exploit Protocol failure 2022-06 confidence 72
Bug in the add-liquidity calculation ← Withdrawing more than deposited ← Halting the chain ← Broad amicable recovery
Root cause: A primitive arithmetic error at the heart of the market maker
Outcome: Ideal Containment via a coordinated halt · Recovery: Near-complete
Contagion ← No documented contagion
Signals before failure: Single point of failure
Unknowns:
Sources: post-mortem Jun 2022
USDD — the Tron test Stablecoin failure 2022-06 confidence 68
Post-Terra pressure ← Trading below the peg for weeks ← Reserve interventions announced opaquely
Root cause: An algorithm with centrally managed collateral without real-time transparency
Outcome: Survived but with an open reserve question · Recovery: Slow recovery
Contagion ← TERRA-2022
Signals before failure: Reserve mismatchCustody opacity
Unknowns: Actual reserve composition in real time
Sources: peg records Jun 2022
CoinFLEX — the whale account with no margin Exchange failure 2022-06 confidence 72
Loss of a large account with no contractual liquidation ← Withdrawal freeze ← Public exposure of the debtor's identity, an open dispute, then restructuring
Root cause: A margin exception for a major Personality became a solvency vulnerability
Outcome: A rare public dispute between a platform and its most famous client · Recovery: Restructuring
Contagion ← 3AC-2022
Signals before failure: Leverage expansionGovernance risk
Unknowns: The original account terms
Sources: public dispute Jun 2022
Baller Apes — the exit apes Fraud 2022-06 confidence 66
A copycat collection with intense promotion ← A $2.6 million rug pull ← International federal charges
Root cause: The imitation economy produces imitative fraud
Outcome: — · Recovery: Judicial
Contagion ← FROSTIES-2022
Signals before failure: Narrative fragility
Unknowns:
Sources: DOJ Jun 2022 · U.S. Department of Justice: Criminal Division | United States v. Le Ahn Tuan (2022-06) https://www.justice.gov/criminal/criminal-vns/case/united-states-v-le-ahn-tuan · U.S. Immigration and Customs Enforcement (ICE / HSI): HSI Baltimore-led investigation results in breakup of largest known NFT scheme to date (2022-06) https://www.ice.gov/news/releases/hsi-baltimore-led-investigation-results-breakup-largest-known-nft-scheme-date · U.S. Department of Justice, Office of Public Affairs: Justice Department Announces Enforcement Action Charging Six Individuals with Cryptocurrency Fraud Offenses (2022-06-30) https://www.justice.gov/archives/opa/pr/justice-department-announces-enforcement-action-charging-six-individuals-cryptocurrency · The Block: DOJ charges NFT developer with $2.6 million 'rug pull' scam (2022-07-01) https://www.theblock.co/post/155264/doj-charges-nft-developer-with-2-6-million-rug-pull-scam
OpenSea — the homepage as inside information Fraud 2022-06 confidence 76
A manager knowing what would be featured on the homepage ← Buying ahead and selling after the feature ← A wire-fraud conviction
Root cause: Even the internal "trend" is stolen Knowledge
Outcome: The first insider-trading case involving collectibles · Recovery: Prison Ruling
Contagion ← No documented contagion
Signals before failure: Governance risk
Unknowns:
Sources: DOJ 2022
XCarnival — reused collateral Protocol failure 2022-06 confidence 60
Reuse of a withdrawn collateral asset ← Borrowing against phantom collateral ← 3.8 million
Root cause: Flawed collateral Withdrawal logic creates phantom collateral
Outcome: Bounty negotiation · Recovery: Partial
Contagion ← No documented contagion
Signals before failure: Single point of failure
Unknowns:
Sources: Jun 2022
stETH — the panic de-peg Liquidity failure 2022-06 confidence 76
Heavy institutional exit from stETH ← De-peg of up to 7% before enablement ← Pressure on leveraged borrowers
Root cause: Liquid staking is not the underlying token despite the assumption
Outcome: A pivotal event in understanding liquid-staking risks · Recovery: Full Recovery later
Contagion ← 3AC-2022
Signals before failure: Liquidity concentrationLeverage expansion
Unknowns:
Sources: Jun 2022 · Coinbase Institutional Research: Liquid Staking: Reconciling the stETH Price Divergence — Monthly Outlook June 2022 (2022-06) https://www.coinbase.com/institutional/research-insights/research/monthly-outlook/liquid-staking-june-2022 · Nansen: On-Chain Forensics: Demystifying stETH's De-peg (2022-06) https://www.nansen.ai/research/on-chain-forensics-demystifying-steth-depeg · CoinDesk: 'Staked Ether' Becomes Focus of Crypto Stress, From Celsius to Three Arrows (2022-06-14) https://www.coindesk.com/markets/2022/06/14/staked-ether-becomes-focus-of-crypto-stress-from-celsius-to-three-arrows · CoinDesk: Nansen Report Shows Links Between Terra Collapse and stETH 'De-peg' (2022-06-29) https://www.coindesk.com/business/2022/06/29/nansen-casts-blame-for-steth-de-peg-on-terra
USDX — Kava's faltering stablecoin Stablecoin failure 2022-06 confidence 58
De-peg pressure after Terra ← Volatile collateral ← Chronic trading below the peg
Root cause: Stablecoins tied to a single chain inherit its volatility
Outcome: — · Recovery: Weak Ongoing
Contagion ← TERRA-2022
Signals before failure: Reserve mismatch
Unknowns:
Sources: 2022
FinBlox — restrictions after Three Arrows Exchange failure 2022-06 confidence 60
Exposure to Three Arrows Capital (3AC) ← Sudden withdrawal limits ← Slow recovery
Root cause: Contagion strikes even the peripheral exposed platforms
Outcome: Pattern of imposing restrictions before the Collapse · Recovery: Partial
Contagion ← 3AC-2022
Signals before failure: Single point of failure
Unknowns:
Sources: Jun 2022
Calypso and the collapsed quant funds Fraud 2022-06 confidence 54
Purported market-neutral quantitative strategies ← Hidden directional exposure ← Collapse
Root cause: Declared market neutrality is often a disguised directional bet
Outcome: Archive of collapsed quant funds 2022 · Recovery: None approximately
Contagion ← 3AC-2022
Signals before failure: Artificial yieldLeverage expansion
Unknowns:
Sources: 2022 aggregated
STEPN — run to earn until newcomers stop Governance failure 2022-06 confidence 68
Movement rewards exceeding the inflow ← A Chinese ban and a mass exit ← Internal token collapse
Root cause: All "do-to-earn" models share the same Spiral
Outcome: — · Recovery: Sharp Contraction
Contagion ← AXIE-ECONOMY-2022
Signals before failure: incentive_spiral
Unknowns:
Sources: Jun 2022 · CoinGape: Solana-Based STEPN (GMT) Dumped 37% In Minutes, Here's Why (2022-05) https://coingape.com/solana-based-stepn-gmt-dumped-37-in-minutes-heres-why/ · CoinDesk: Stepn to Bar Gameplay in China, Sending 'Move-to-Earn' Token GMT Spiraling (2022-05-26) https://www.coindesk.com/business/2022/05/26/stepn-to-bar-move-to-earn-for-china-based-users-in-july · CryptoSlate: Is move-to-earn dead? STEPN's GST token tumbles 98% in 2 months (2022-06) https://cryptoslate.com/is-move-to-earn-dead-stepns-gst-token-tumbles-98-in-2-months/ · AMBCrypto: STEPN: With continued player apathy, here is how the GMT and GST tokens are faring (2022-06) https://ambcrypto.com/stepn-with-continued-player-apathy-here-is-how-the-gmt-and-gst-tokens-are-faring/
Bored Ape — NFT liquidity evaporates Liquidity failure 2022-06 confidence 66
Loans secured by digital collectibles ← Price collapse triggers the liquidations ← No liquidity at the point of sale
Root cause: Collectibles as collateral assume liquidity that vanishes when needed
Outcome: Exposing the Fragility of collectibles lending · Recovery: Contraction
Contagion ← STETH-DEPEG-2022
Signals before failure: Liquidity concentrationLeverage expansion
Unknowns:
Sources: 2022 · Chainalysis: NFT Transaction Activity Stabilizing in 2022 After Explosive Growth (2022-06) https://www.chainalysis.com/blog/chainalysis-web3-report-preview-nfts/ · Bloomberg (secondary, top-tier; Dune data): NFT Trading Volumes Collapse 97% From 2022 Peak (2022-09-28) https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2022-09-28/nft-volumes-tumble-97-from-2022-highs-as-frenzy-fades-chart · Consensys: The State of NFT Markets | October 2022 (2022-10) https://consensys.io/blog/the-state-of-nft-markets-october-2022 · CoinDesk: The Floor Price for Bored Ape's Otherdeed NFTs Is Crashing (2022-10-21) https://www.coindesk.com/web3/2022/10/21/the-floor-price-for-bored-apes-otherdeed-nfts-is-crashing · Decrypt: Bored Ape Yacht Club NFT Prices Fall After FTX Sinks Crypto Market (2022-11) https://decrypt.co/114158/bored-ape-yacht-club-nft-prices-fall-after-ftx-sinks-crypto-market
MIM — de-peg contagion Stablecoin failure 2022-06 confidence 62
Exposure to distressed assets ← Solvency concern and de-peg ← Partial recovery
Root cause: Stablecoins collateralized by Volatile debt wobble cyclically
Outcome: — · Recovery: Partial recovery
Contagion ← MIM-2022
Signals before failure: Reserve mismatch
Unknowns:
Sources: 2022
Terra/UST — algorithmic stablecoin collapse Stablecoin failure 2022-05 confidence 90
Algorithmic peg without sufficient reserves ← Dependence on Anchor yield ← Pressure on the peg ← Bank run ← Depeg ← Inflationary Luna printing ← Twin collapse ← Sector-wide contagion
Root cause: The peg mechanism relies on reflexive trust: pressure mints LUNA, LUNA falls, which adds more pressure
Outcome: Loss of ~40 billion dollars; judicial Prosecutions of its founder · Recovery: No Recovery — a classic chain remaining as a vestige
Contagion ← 3AC-2022, CELSIUS-2022, VOYAGER-2022
Signals before failure: Artificial yieldReserve mismatchNarrative fragility
Unknowns: The exact sequence of who initiated the first large withdrawal is still disputed
Sources: court filings SEC v. Terraform 2023 · on-chain depeg records May 2022 · Nansen Research: On-Chain Forensics: Demystifying TerraUSD De-peg (2022-05-27) https://www.nansen.ai/research/on-chain-forensics-demystifying-terrausd-de-peg · U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission: SEC Charges Terraform and CEO Do Kwon with Defrauding Investors (PR 2023-32) (2023-02-16) https://www.sec.gov/newsroom/press-releases/2023-32 · Epiq 11: Terraform Labs Chapter 11 Docket, Case No. 24-10070 (BLS) (2024-01-21) https://dm.epiq11.com/case/terraform/info · U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission: SEC Statement on Jury's Verdict in SEC v. Terraform Labs and Do Kwon (2024-04-04) https://www.sec.gov/newsroom/speeches-statements/grewal-statement-040424 · U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission: Terraform and Kwon to Pay $4.5 Billion Following Fraud Verdict (PR 2024-73) (2024-06) https://www.sec.gov/newsroom/press-releases/2024-73 · U.S. DOJ, U.S. Attorney's Office SDNY: Do Kwon Pleads Guilty to Fraud (2025-08-12) https://www.justice.gov/usao-sdny/pr/do-kwon-pleads-guilty-fraud · U.S. DOJ, U.S. Attorney's Office SDNY: Crypto-Enabled Fraudster Sentenced for Orchestrating $40 Billion Fraud (Do Kwon, 15 years) (2025-12-11) https://www.justice.gov/usao-sdny/pr/crypto-enabled-fraudster-sentenced-orchestrating-40-billion-fraud
Anchor — the artificial 20% yield Protocol failure 2022-05 confidence 88
Promise of a fixed 19.5% yield ← Yield subsidized from a depleting treasury ← Unsustainable deposit growth ← Reserve depletion ← Collapse alongside UST
Root cause: Yield subsidized not earned: the treasury pays the difference and burns at an accelerating rate
Outcome: Went down with Terra; became the textbook example of artificial yield · Recovery: No Recovery
Contagion ← TERRA-2022
Signals before failure: Artificial yieldTreasury stress
Unknowns: Did the team know sustainability was impossible from the start? Intent remains unresolved
Sources: anchor treasury drain on-chain records 2022 · CoinDesk: Anchor Protocol Reserves Slide as Money Market's Founder Talks Down Concerns (2022-01-28) https://www.coindesk.com/markets/2022/01/28/anchor-protocol-reserves-slide-as-money-markets-founder-talks-down-concerns · CoinDesk: Terra-Based DeFi Protocol Anchor Proposes Cutting UST Yield Rates to 4% (2022-05-12) https://www.coindesk.com/markets/2022/05/12/terra-based-defi-protocol-anchor-proposes-cutting-ust-yield-rates-to-4 · U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission: Terraform Labs PTE Ltd. Amended Complaint (2023) https://www.sec.gov/files/terraform-labs-pte-ltd-amended-complaint.pdf · U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission: SEC Charges Terraform and CEO Do Kwon with Defrauding Investors in Crypto Schemes (2023-02-16) https://www.sec.gov/newsroom/press-releases/2023-32
UST depeg — the technical autopsy Stablecoin failure 2022-05 confidence 87
Curve liquidity concentrated in a single pool ← Concentrated 150 million withdrawal ← 2% deviation ← Panic and spread ← Successive sell waves ← Full collapse below 10 cents
Root cause: Liquidity concentration: a single pool was the only point of failure for the entire peg
Outcome: The reference case for dissecting a Depeg mechanically · Recovery: No Recovery
Contagion ← TERRA-2022
Signals before failure: Liquidity concentrationSingle point of failure
Unknowns: The identity of those who executed the first large withdrawals has not been conclusively attributed
Sources: curve pool records May 7-9 2022
Luna Foundation Guard — failure of the defensive treasury Treasury failure 2022-05 confidence 85
Amassing 3.5 billion dollars in Bitcoin as a reserve ← Deploying the reserve to defend the peg ← Selling the Bitcoin into a falling market ← Ammunition exhausted without saving the peg
Root cause: A defensive treasury facing a reflexive run: the defensive selling itself feeds the panic
Outcome: Drain of ~80 thousand Bitcoin within days · Recovery: Partial — subsequent distributions to creditors
Contagion ← TERRA-2022
Signals before failure: Treasury stressReserve mismatch
Unknowns: The path of part of the reserve after depletion was only partially documented
Sources: LFG wallet on-chain audit trail May 2022
Mirror — collapse of the mirrored assets Protocol failure 2022-05 confidence 76
Mirrored stocks collateralized by UST ← Collateral collapse ← A concurrent Polkadot oracle vulnerability ← Double drain
Root cause: An entire protocol built on a dead stablecoin
Outcome: Died with its parent system · Recovery: None
Contagion ← TERRA-2022
Signals before failure: Single point of failureReserve mismatch
Unknowns: Losses to the oracle-vulnerability exploiters
Sources: post-mortems 2022
DEI (Deus) — the gray contagion Stablecoin failure 2022-05 confidence 70
Fragile hybrid collateral ← Successive exploits of the ecosystem ← Final depeg
Root cause: Partially collateralized stablecoin in a security-compromised ecosystem
Outcome: Failed revival attempts · Recovery: None
Contagion ← TERRA-2022
Signals before failure: Reserve mismatch
Unknowns:
Sources: depeg records May 2022
Luna 2 — the lackluster revival Governance failure 2022-05 confidence 74
A chain fork to rescue the ecosystem ← Compensatory distribution ← A continuous decline with no confidence
Root cause: Revival without addressing the root inherits the absence of trust
Outcome: The new chain did not regain its appeal · Recovery: Weak
Contagion ← TERRA-2022
Signals before failure: Narrative fragility
Unknowns:
Sources: chain records 2022
Degenbox — the looped UST leverage Leverage failure 2022-05 confidence 76
A looped leverage strategy on UST ← Compounded yields with illusory safety ← Blowup with the peg
Root cause: Leverage over a fragile stablecoin = a Collapse multiplier
Outcome: Worsened the speed of UST's death · Recovery: Bad debt
Contagion ← TERRA-2022
Signals before failure: Leverage expansionArtificial yield
Unknowns:
Sources: records 2022
EminiFX — the community pyramid Fraud 2022-05 confidence 70
Alleged weekly returns of 5% ← Targeting a single community through trust ← Federal shutdown
Root cause: Affinity fraud is the fastest way to gather trust
Outcome: — · Recovery: Partial recovery
Contagion ← No documented contagion
Signals before failure: Artificial yield
Unknowns:
Sources: CFTC/DOJ 2022
Mining Capital — the illusion contracts Fraud 2022-05 confidence 68
Phantom mining contracts and funds ← $62 million ← Federal indictment of the founder
Root cause: A duplicate copy of the fraudulent mining template
Outcome: — · Recovery: Judicial
Contagion ← No documented contagion
Signals before failure: Artificial yield
Unknowns:
Sources: DOJ May 2022
Fortress DAO — abandonment of the treasury Fraud 2022-05 confidence 58
Sudden abandonment of the project ← Transfer of treasury assets ← Collapse of the token
Root cause: Abandonment in orderly garb remains an abandonment of the creditors
Outcome: — · Recovery: None
Contagion ← No documented contagion
Signals before failure: Governance riskTreasury stress
Unknowns:
Sources: May 2022
Kora — a fund exposed to Terra Fraud 2022-05 confidence 58
Concentration in Anchor and UST ← Evaporation of value ← Liquidation
Root cause: Single-yield funds die with the death of their source
Outcome: — · Recovery: None approximately
Contagion ← TERRA-2022
Signals before failure: Artificial yieldSingle point of failure
Unknowns:
Sources: May 2022
Instantaneous oracle spikes — erroneous liquidations Protocol failure 2022-05 confidence 62
Momentary price spike in the price feed ← Erroneous automated liquidations ← User losses
Root cause: Even a robust oracle passes through momentary market distortions
Outcome: A lesson on the risks of automated Liquidation · Recovery: Partial
Contagion ← No documented contagion
Signals before failure: Single point of failure
Unknowns:
Sources: 2022
LUNA oracle — reading a collapsing price Protocol failure 2022-05 confidence 64
LUNA collapse faster than oracle update ← Lagging price readings ← Liquidations and calculation errors
Root cause: The oracle lags when an asset collapses at the speed of light
Outcome: Exposing the oracle's limits in Rapid Collapses · Recovery: Chaos
Contagion ← TERRA-2022
Signals before failure: Single point of failureNarrative fragility
Unknowns:
Sources: May 2022
Beanstalk — buying governance with a flash loan Governance failure 2022-04 confidence 85
Flash loan buys an instant voting majority ← Passing a malicious "donation" proposal ← Immediate execution with no time-lock ← $182M stolen
Root cause: Instant-execution governance + rentable votes = an open treasury
Outcome: The textbook model of governance hijacking · Recovery: Partial through the relaunch
Contagion ← No documented contagion
Signals before failure: Governance riskSingle point of failure
Unknowns:
Sources: post-mortem Apr 2022 · Omniscia (auditor): Beanstalk Farms Post-Mortem Analysis (2022-04) https://medium.com/@omniscia.io/beanstalk-farms-post-mortem-analysis-a0667ee0ca9d · Immunefi: Hack Analysis: Beanstalk Governance Attack (April 2022) (2022-04) https://medium.com/immunefi/hack-analysis-beanstalk-governance-attack-april-2022-f42788fc821e · CoinDesk: Attacker Drains $182M From Beanstalk Stablecoin Protocol (2022-04-17) https://www.coindesk.com/tech/2022/04/17/attacker-drains-182m-from-beanstalk-stablecoin-protocol · Elliptic: $76 million stolen from Beanstalk Farms DeFi stablecoin protocol (2022-04-19) https://www.elliptic.co/blog/76-million-stolen-from-beanstalk-farms-defi-stablecoin-protocol · Merkle Science: Hack Track: Analysis of Beanstalk Flash Loan Attack (2022-04-19) https://www.merklescience.com/blog/hack-track-analysis-of-beanstalk-flash-loan-attack
Fei Rari — merger of two fragilities Protocol failure 2022-04 confidence 78
Reentrancy in Fuse markets ← $80M stolen ← Post-merger trust collapse ← Protocol wound down and funds returned
Root cause: Merging two protocols doubled the surface, not the immunity
Outcome: Governance voted on the full solution · Recovery: Near-complete through the Compensation
Contagion ← No documented contagion
Signals before failure: Governance risk
Unknowns:
Sources: post-mortem Apr 2022 · CoinDesk: DeFi Lender Rari Capital/Fei Loses $80M in Hack (2022-04-30) https://www.coindesk.com/business/2022/04/30/defi-lender-rari-capitalfei-loses-80m-in-hack · The Block: Hacker steals $80 million from Rari Capital's Fuse lending pools (2022-04-30) https://www.theblock.co/linked/144511/hackers-steal-80-million-from-rari-capitals-lending-pools · CertiK: Fei Protocol Incident Analysis (2022-05) https://certik.medium.com/fei-protocol-incident-analysis-8527440696cc · Tribe DAO governance forum: TIP-121: Proposal for the future of the Tribe DAO (2022-08) https://tribe.fei.money/t/tip-121-proposal-for-the-future-of-the-tribe-dao/4475 · Decrypt: Tribe DAO Votes to Repay Rari Capital Hack Victims—Again (2022-09) https://decrypt.co/110102/tribe-dao-votes-repay-rari-capital-hack-victims-again
Neutrino — the ailing Waves stablecoin Stablecoin failure 2022-04 confidence 75
Peg backed by the chain's own token ← Mutual manipulation accusations ← Repeated depeg ← Slow death
Root cause: A smaller version of Terra's mechanism with the same reflexivity
Outcome: Ended up something entirely different after Restructuring · Recovery: None in effect
Contagion ← TERRA-2022
Signals before failure: Reserve mismatchNarrative fragility
Unknowns: Mutual manipulation accusations unresolved
Sources: depeg records 2022 · Coinmonks (Medium), Alan Au: USDN de-peg events unpacked — Neutrino Protocol/Waves deep-dive (2022) https://medium.com/coinmonks/a-blip-on-the-radar-or-inherently-fragile-stablecoin-usdn-de-peg-events-unpacked-and-deep-dive-9de6a172b19e · Blockworks: Algorithmic Stablecoin Neutrino USD is on the Brink of Failure (2022-04) https://blockworks.co/news/algorithmic-stablecoin-usdn-is-on-the-brink-of-failure · Bloomberg: Crypto Algorithmic Stablecoin Neutrino Loses Peg as Token Slumps (2022-04-04) https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2022-04-04/crypto-algorithmic-stablecoin-neutrino-loses-peg-as-token-slumps · CoinDesk: Waves' USDN Stablecoin Loses Peg, Drops 15% Amid Manipulation Scare (2022-04-04) https://www.coindesk.com/markets/2022/04/04/waves-usdn-stablecoin-loses-peg-drops-15-amid-manipulation-scare
Waves — the mutual manipulation accusations Market structure failure 2022-04 confidence 70
A suspicious token rally ← Public mutual manipulation accusations ← Collapse and depeg of Neutrino
Root cause: The public narrative wars accelerated the Collapse of trust
Outcome: A rare case of founder-level public mudslinging · Recovery: Weak
Contagion ← USDN-2022
Signals before failure: Narrative fragility
Unknowns: The truth of the original manipulation
Sources: public exchanges 2022 · CryptoNews: Alameda Research Files $90M Lawsuit Against Waves Founder (2022-04) https://cryptonews.com/news/alameda-research-files-lawsuit-against-waves-blockchain-founder-claiming-90-million-loss/ · CryptoSlate: Allegations Alameda Research is manipulating $WAVES shut down as 'bullshit conspiracy' (2022-04) https://cryptoslate.com/allegations-alameda-research-is-manipulating-waves-shut-down-as-bullshit-conspiracy/ · The Block: Drama erupts around the Waves blockchain project and trading firm Alameda (2022-04) https://www.theblock.co/post/140475/drama-erupts-around-the-waves-blockchain-project-and-trading-firm-alameda · BeInCrypto: Waves Founder Accuses Alameda of Manipulation as Stablecoin De-Pegs (2022-04) https://beincrypto.com/waves-founder-accuses-alameda-of-manipulation-as-stablecoin-de-pegs/
The forgotten minor attacks of 2022 Protocol failure 2022-04 confidence 62
A chain of small front-end and contract vulnerabilities ← Scattered losses ← Recurring patterns
Root cause: The long tail of incidents teaches as much as the catastrophes
Outcome: An archive of the small patterns · Recovery: Mixed
Contagion ← No documented contagion
Signals before failure: Single point of failure
Unknowns:
Sources: aggregated 2022
Hydra — fall of the largest darknet market Fraud 2022-04 confidence 76
Darknet market with billions in annual volume ← Seizure of German servers and 543 Bitcoin ← Final shutdown
Root cause: The largest Russian-origin laundering infrastructure falls in a single blow
Outcome: Redistributed the shadow economy eastward · Recovery: Seizure
Contagion ← No documented contagion
Signals before failure: Custody opacity
Unknowns: The successor alternatives
Sources: DE/US Apr 2022 · Elliptic: $5 Billion Darknet Market Hydra Seized by German Authorities (2022-04) https://www.elliptic.co/blog/5-billion-darknet-market-hydra-seized-by-german-authorities · U.S. DOJ: DOJ Investigation Leads to Shutdown of Largest Online Darknet Marketplace (2022-04-05) https://www.justice.gov/archives/opa/pr/justice-department-investigation-leads-shutdown-largest-online-darknet-marketplace · U.S. Treasury OFAC: Russia-related and Cyber-related Designation (April 5, 2022) (2022-04-05) https://ofac.treasury.gov/recent-actions/20220405 · U.S. Treasury: Treasury Sanctions Hydra and Garantex (2022-04-05) https://home.treasury.gov/news/press-releases/jy0701 · CNBC (secondary, top-tier): World's biggest darknet marketplace seized and shut down (2022-04-05) https://www.cnbc.com/2022/04/05/darknet-hydra-market-site-seized-and-shut-down-doj-says.html
Trezor — the booby-trapped mailing list Protocol failure 2022-04 confidence 68
Breach of the marketing email provider ← Phishing messages in official guise ← Victims who entered their phrases themselves
Root cause: The trust supply chain includes marketing email too
Outcome: — · Recovery: Rapid warnings
Contagion ← No documented contagion
Signals before failure: Single point of failure
Unknowns: Total volume of losses
Sources: Apr 2022
Inverse Finance — distorted TWAP oracle Protocol failure 2022-04 confidence 68
Distortion of an oracle based on a thin pool ← Leveraged borrowing ← 15 million across two incidents
Root cause: Building an oracle on thin liquidity is an open invitation
Outcome: Two incidents in two months reveal the depth of the error · Recovery: None approximately
Contagion ← No documented contagion
Signals before failure: Single point of failureLeverage expansion
Unknowns:
Sources: Apr/Jun 2022
Saddle — the broken curve math Protocol failure 2022-04 confidence 64
Flaw in the balanced-swap calculation ← Draining of pools at a wrong price ← 11 million
Root cause: A mathematical error at the curve's core drains the pool
Outcome: — · Recovery: Partial
Contagion ← No documented contagion
Signals before failure: Single point of failure
Unknowns:
Sources: Apr 2022
Rari Fuse — isolated pools bleed Protocol failure 2022-04 confidence 70
Reentrancy via an externally-calling token ← Draining of several Fuse pools ← 80 million
Root cause: The alleged isolation did not isolate the reentrancy vulnerability
Outcome: Accelerated the end of the Rari-Fei merger · Recovery: None approximately
Contagion ← RARI-2021
Signals before failure: Single point of failure
Unknowns:
Sources: Apr 2022
Neutrino — the Waves peg collapses Stablecoin failure 2022-04 confidence 64
Exposure to the volatile Waves token ← Mutual manipulation accusations ← Extended depeg
Root cause: A peg backed by its own network token is a fragile loop
Outcome: — · Recovery: Weak
Contagion ← WAVES-2022
Signals before failure: Reserve mismatchNarrative fragility
Unknowns:
Sources: Apr 2022
Ronin Bridge — the five-validator breach Bridge failure 2022-03 confidence 88
Only nine validators with a threshold of five ← Four held by a single company ← Social-engineering breach ← Signing a 625 million withdrawal ← Detection after 6 days
Root cause: Cosmetic decentralization: the actual threshold was a single company + an ally's key
Outcome: Attributed to North Korea's Lazarus; Partial recovery · Recovery: Compensation of users through funding
Contagion ← No documented contagion
Signals before failure: Bridge dependencyCustody opacitySingle point of failure
Unknowns: The laundering path of a large part of the stolen funds
Sources: FBI attribution Apr 2022 · Sky Mavis post-mortem · Elliptic: North Korea's Lazarus Group identified as exploiters behind the Ronin bridge heist (2022-04) https://www.elliptic.co/blog/540-million-stolen-from-the-ronin-defi-bridge · FBI: FBI Statement on Attribution of Malicious Cyber Activity Posed by the DPRK (2022-04-14) https://www.fbi.gov/news/press-releases/press-releases/fbi-statement-on-attribution-of-malicious-cyber-activity-posed-by-the-democratic-peoples-republic-of-korea · U.S. Treasury OFAC: North Korea Designation Update (Lazarus SDN entry — Ronin address) (2022-04-14) https://ofac.treasury.gov/recent-actions/20220414 · Sky Mavis / Ronin: Back to Building: Ronin Security Breach Postmortem (2022-04-27) https://roninchain.com/blog/posts/back-to-building-ronin-security-breach-6513cc78a5edc1001b03c364 · U.S. Treasury: U.S. Treasury Issues First-Ever Sanctions on a Virtual Currency Mixer (Blender.io) (2022-05-06) https://home.treasury.gov/news/press-releases/jy0768 · Chainalysis: Crypto Community Makes Profiting Hard for North Korean Hackers ($30M seizure) (2022-09) https://www.chainalysis.com/blog/axie-infinity-ronin-bridge-dprk-hack-seizure/
Cashio — infinite mint with zero collateral Protocol failure 2022-03 confidence 73
Incomplete validation of collateral accounts ← 2B units minted on fake collateral ← A Robin Hood message from the exploiter
Root cause: The account-verification chain on Solana is full of holes
Outcome: The exploiter returned some funds "to the poor" · Recovery: Partial, anomalous
Contagion ← No documented contagion
Signals before failure: Reserve mismatch
Unknowns: Identity and motives of the exploiter
Sources: post-mortem Mar 2022
Juno — seizing the whale by vote Governance failure 2022-03 confidence 77
A whale gaming the airdrop rules ← Network votes to confiscate his balance ← Confiscation executed via an upgrade ← A terrifying precedent for ownership
Root cause: The chain voted to take a user's money — ownership is conditioned on the majority
Outcome: An execution error sent the funds to a wrong address, adding absurdity to the tragedy · Recovery: Partial later
Contagion ← No documented contagion
Signals before failure: Governance risk
Unknowns:
Sources: governance props 16/20 records
Polygon — the client-version split Market structure failure 2022-03 confidence 70
Upgrade bug between client versions ← Block production halted for hours ← Coordinated fix
Root cause: Client diversity without strict consensus
Outcome: Among the longest halts of major chains · Recovery: Recovery Full
Contagion ← No documented contagion
Signals before failure: Single point of failure
Unknowns:
Sources: incident Mar 2022
Hundred Finance — a Cream fork bleeds Protocol failure 2022-03 confidence 62
Price manipulation of a newly listed wrapped token ← Leveraged borrowing ← 6 million
Root cause: Spawning forks spawns the same vulnerabilities
Outcome: Struck twice over two years · Recovery: None approximately
Contagion ← CREAM-2021
Signals before failure: Single point of failure
Unknowns:
Sources: Mar 2022
Wormhole — a forged signature worth 320 million Bridge failure 2022-02 confidence 87
A signature-verification flaw in the Solana contract ← Minting wrapped Ethereum without backing ← Withdrawal of 120 thousand Ethereum ← Immediate bailout from the owner
Root cause: An old verification function susceptible to deception — and the Bridge mints assets without backing at the moment of deception
Outcome: Jump covered the Gap out of its own pocket in a single day · Recovery: Full (at a private cost)
Contagion ← No documented contagion
Signals before failure: Bridge dependencySingle point of failure
Unknowns: Part of the funds was later recovered by means never fully explained publicly
Sources: exploit trace Feb 2022 · Jump statement
Meter — minting without a lock Bridge failure 2022-02 confidence 72
Special handling of a wrapped asset ← Bypassing the lock step ← Minting without backing ← Liquidation of 4.4 million and a local price collapse
Root cause: A code exception for a single asset broke the backing assumption
Outcome: Small but textbook in structure · Recovery: Partial
Contagion ← No documented contagion
Signals before failure: Bridge dependency
Unknowns:
Sources: post-mortem Feb 2022
Optimism — the ethically disclosed mint vulnerability Protocol failure 2022-02 confidence 75
Researcher discovers a possible infinite mint ← Responsible disclosure ← Fixed before any exploit ← Record bounty
Root cause: Same class of fatal vulnerabilities — but the benign side found it first
Outcome: The control case: the failure that did not happen · Recovery: No losses
Contagion ← No documented contagion
Signals before failure: Single point of failure
Unknowns: How many similar vulnerabilities has no one found yet?
Sources: disclosure Feb 2022
Build Finance — full governance takeover Governance failure 2022-02 confidence 75
Quietly buying enough votes ← Passing an unlimited mint ← Draining the treasury and liquidity ← Death of the DAO
Root cause: A small DAO with voting liquidity cheaper than its treasury
Outcome: The first completed «hostile takeover» of a DAO · Recovery: None
Contagion ← No documented contagion
Signals before failure: Governance riskLiquidity concentration
Unknowns:
Sources: post-mortem Feb 2022
Razzlekhan — laundering the 120,000 Bitcoin Fraud 2022-02 confidence 80
Arrest of a couple in New York ← Seizure of $3.6 billion at the time — the largest seizure ← Guilty pleas and sentences
Root cause: Laundering is harder than the theft: the chain does not forget
Outcome: Restored hope six years after the theft · Recovery: A historic Recovery
Contagion ← BITFINEX-2016
Signals before failure: Custody opacity
Unknowns: The identity of the original hacker
Sources: DOJ Feb 2022 · U.S. Department of Justice (USAO-DC): United States v. Ilya Lichtenstein and Heather Morgan (2022-02) https://www.justice.gov/usao-dc/case/united-states-v-ilya-lichtenstein-and-heather-morgan · U.S. Department of Justice, Office of Public Affairs: Two Arrested for Alleged Conspiracy to Launder $4.5 Billion in Stolen Cryptocurrency (2022-02-08) https://www.justice.gov/archives/opa/pr/two-arrested-alleged-conspiracy-launder-45-billion-stolen-cryptocurrency · Chainalysis: Bitfinex Hack Money Launderers Plead Guilty (2023-07) https://www.chainalysis.com/blog/bitfinex-hack-plea-july-2023/ · U.S. Immigration and Customs Enforcement (ICE / HSI): Bitfinex Hacker Sentenced in Money Laundering Conspiracy Involving Billions in Stolen Cryptocurrency (2024-11) https://www.ice.gov/news/releases/bitfinex-hacker-sentenced-money-laundering-conspiracy-involving-billions-stolen · TRM Labs: Ilya Lichtenstein and Heather 'Razzlekhan' Morgan Sentenced In The Bitfinex Case As Government Recovers $10 Billion in Stolen Funds (2024-11-13) https://www.trmlabs.com/resources/blog/ilya-lichtenstein-sentenced-for-role-in-bitfinex-hack-in-razzlekhan-case-as-government-recovers-about-10-billion-in-stolen-funds
Build Finance — a full governance takeover Governance failure 2022-02 confidence 70
Cheap purchase of a voting majority ← Passage of a control proposal ← Seizure of the treasury and contracts
Root cause: Cheap-token governance = a treasury up for sale
Outcome: The pure governance-takeover model · Recovery: None
Contagion ← BEANSTALK-2022
Signals before failure: Governance risk
Unknowns:
Sources: Feb 2022 · Decrypt: Build Finance DAO Falls to Governance Takeover (2022-02) https://decrypt.co/92970/build-finance-dao-falls-to-governance-takeover · CryptoSlate: Build Finance DAO hostile takeover, treasury drained (2022-02) https://cryptoslate.com/build-finance-dao-hostile-takeover-treasury-drained/ · The Block: Build Finance DAO suffers 'hostile governance takeover,' loses $470,000 (2022-02) https://www.theblock.co/post/134180/build-finance-dao-suffers-hostile-governance-takeover-loses-470000 · U.Today: Build Finance DeFi Drained by 'Hostile Takeover,' $0.5M Goes to Tornado (2022-02) https://u.today/build-finance-defi-drained-by-hostile-takeover-05-million-goes-to-tornado
Axie — the play-to-earn economy collapses Governance failure 2022-02 confidence 74
A token economy reliant on new players ← Inflation of rewards without a sink ← Internal token collapse
Root cause: Play-to-earn is an incentive Spiral that always needs human fuel
Outcome: The death of the first play-to-earn model · Recovery: Redesign
Contagion ← RONIN-2022
Signals before failure: incentive_spiralNarrative fragility
Unknowns:
Sources: 2022 · Forkast News: Axie Infinity player earnings below Philippines minimum wage (2021-11) https://forkast.news/earnings-axie-infinity-below-minimum-wage/ · Naavik: Axie Infinity: Infinite Opportunity or Infinite Peril? (2021-11) https://naavik.co/deep-dives/axie-infinity/ · Decrypt: Axie Infinity's SLP Token Skyrockets Over 50% After 'Season 20' Update (2022-02) https://decrypt.co/92625/axie-infinitys-slp-token-skyrockets-over-50-after-season-20-update · Sky Mavis / Axie Infinity (official): Upcoming Season 20 & Economic Balancing Adjustments (2022-02) https://blog.axieinfinity.com/p/upcoming-season-20-and-economic-balancing · BitPinas: Why Axie Infinity is Removing Rewards in Adventure and Daily Quest to Zero SLP (2022-02) https://bitpinas.com/play-to-earn/axie-infinity-adventure-daily-quest-slp-rewards-zero/
MIM crisis — collateral from a collapsed token Stablecoin failure 2022-01 confidence 80
Accepting UST and fragile assets as collateral ← A co-founder's exposure to a position and its collapse ← Partial depeg panic ← A narrow escape followed by the Terra blow
Root cause: A stablecoin collateralized by another fragile stablecoin — voluntarily stacking dominoes
Outcome: Survived 2022 with losses and subsequent Bad debt · Recovery: Partial Ongoing
Contagion ← TERRA-2022
Signals before failure: Reserve mismatchLeverage expansionNarrative fragility
Unknowns: The final scale of bad debt across the cycles
Sources: protocol governance records 2022 · CoinDesk: Wonderland Rattled After Co-Founder Tied to Alleged QuadrigaCX $190M Exit Scam (2022-01-27) https://www.coindesk.com/markets/2022/01/27/wonderland-rattled-after-cofounder-tied-to-alleged-quadrigacx-190m-exit-scam · CoinDesk: DeFi Users Fret 'Contagion' Risk Amid Possible Stablecoin Depegging (2022-01-28) https://www.coindesk.com/business/2022/01/28/defi-users-fret-contagion-risk-amid-possible-stablecoin-depegging · Curve community newsletter (Substack): Jan. 28, 2022: The Vanishing $SPELL (MIM-3pool flash crash) (2022-01-28) https://curve.substack.com/p/the-vanishing-spell-
Qubit — the phantom deposit Bridge failure 2022-01 confidence 75
A legacy deposit function that was never disabled ← A zero deposit being counted ← Minting of phantom collateral ← Draining the lending pool of 80 million
Root cause: Dead code that stayed alive — an abandoned function still callable
Outcome: The protocol died · Recovery: None
Contagion ← No documented contagion
Signals before failure: Bridge dependency
Unknowns: Perpetrator unknown
Sources: post-mortem Jan 2022
Solana outages — the chain that sleeps Market structure failure 2022-01 confidence 80
Flooding with bot transactions ← Draining validator memory ← Block production halt ← Repeated coordinated restarts
Root cause: Near-zero message costs allow flooding the network
Outcome: A series of Fixes leading to a second client later · Recovery: Gradual structural Improvement
Contagion ← No documented contagion
Signals before failure: Single point of failure
Unknowns: Total economic losses of the outages were never measured
Sources: status post-mortems 2021-2022 · Solana Foundation: 04-30-22 Solana Mainnet Beta Outage Report and Mitigation (2022-04-30) https://solana.com/news/04-30-22-solana-mainnet-beta-outage-report-mitigation · Solana Foundation: 06-01-22 Solana Mainnet Beta Outage Report (2022-06-01) https://solana.com/news/06-01-22-solana-mainnet-beta-outage-report-2 · CoinDesk: Solana Halted by Bug Linked to Certain Cold Storage Transactions (2022-06-02) https://www.coindesk.com/tech/2022/06/02/solana-halted-by-bug-linked-to-certain-cold-storage-transactions · Solana Foundation: 09-30-22 Solana Mainnet Beta Outage Report (2022-09-30) https://solana.com/news/09-30-22-solana-mainnet-beta-outage-report · Fortune (secondary, top-tier): Solana back online after latest outage (2022-10-01) https://fortune.com/crypto/2022/10/01/solana-back-online-after-latest-outage/
Crypto.com — bypassing two-factor authentication Exchange failure 2022-01 confidence 76
Withdrawals without second authentication for some accounts ← $34 million loss ← Initial denial then admission and compensation
Root cause: An authentication logic vulnerability + an evasive initial statement
Outcome: The delayed communication nearly cost more than the Breach · Recovery: Full
Contagion ← No documented contagion
Signals before failure: Custody opacityNarrative fragility
Unknowns:
Sources: post-mortem Jan 2022
Rain — the quiet Gulf breach Exchange failure 2022-01 confidence 62
Wallet breach of around $15 million ← Concealment for months ← Compensation without broad public disclosure
Root cause: Secrecy protects the reputation short-term and wounds trust long-term
Outcome: Among the earliest documented Gulf platform Breaches · Recovery: Full to the customers
Contagion ← No documented contagion
Signals before failure: Custody opacity
Unknowns: The attack's details
Sources: reports 2022
Frosties — the first rug pull prosecuted in court Fraud 2022-01 confidence 72
A digital image collection sold with enthusiasm ← Immediate withdrawal of liquidity and communications ← The first federal indictment for an NFT rug pull
Root cause: The old Withdrawal in the garb of digital collectibles
Outcome: A Judicial precedent for collectibles · Recovery: Judicial
Contagion ← No documented contagion
Signals before failure: Narrative fragility
Unknowns:
Sources: DOJ Mar 2022
Wonderland — a treasurer with a past Governance failure 2022-01 confidence 70
Exposure of the treasurer's identity as a prior convict ← Collapse of trust and the token ← Dissolution vote
Root cause: A treasury of billions in the hands of one whose true identity is unknown
Outcome: The lesson of governance over anonymous treasuries · Recovery: Partial Liquidation
Contagion ← No documented contagion
Signals before failure: Governance riskCustody opacity
Unknowns:
Sources: Jan 2022
Olympus and its forks — death of the fantastical yield Governance failure 2022-01 confidence 70
Yields in the thousands of percent backed by minting ← Countless forks ← Collapse in sync with the market
Root cause: A yield funded only by new entrants is a mass Death spiral
Outcome: The death of the "protocol-backed yield" school · Recovery: Near None
Contagion ← WONDERLAND-2022
Signals before failure: Artificial yieldincentive_spiral
Unknowns:
Sources: Q1 2022 · Snapshot (Wonderland DAO): Wonderland Snapshot: Remove Sifu as Treasury Manager (2022-01) https://snapshot.org/#/bestfork.eth/proposal/0x8f974b76d4f50ea26a1f44843dcda2e0f6a4736883968b29996d272b86b447a9 · The Block: Wonderland votes out QuadrigaCX co-founder Sifu, considers shutting down (2022-01) https://www.theblock.co/post/132340/wonderland-votes-out-quadrigacx-co-founder-sifu-and-is-considering-shutting-down · rekt.news: Sifu Scandal (2022-01-28) https://rekt.news/sifu-scandal · Web3 is Going Just Great (Molly White): Wonderland founder declares the experiment is ending despite ongoing vote (2022-01-30) https://www.web3isgoinggreat.com/?id=2022-01-30-0 · CoinDesk: Wonderland Founder: 'I'm Here to Fix This and Make It All Back' (2022-02-01) https://www.coindesk.com/tech/2022/02/01/wonderland-founder-im-here-to-fix-this-and-make-it-all-back
NFT wash trading — phantom volume Market structure failure 2022-01 confidence 62
Self-trading to inflate the volumes ← Protocol rewards that feed the wash trading ← Inflated market figures
Root cause: Collectibles volume was a vast accounting illusion
Outcome: Exposing the falseness of collectibles market figures · Recovery: Correction
Contagion ← COINBIT-2020
Signals before failure: Narrative fragility
Unknowns: The true proportion of wash trading
Sources: 2022 analyses
BitMart — a single-key leak Exchange failure 2021-12 confidence 74
Leak of a private key for two hot wallets ← Withdrawal of 196 million across hundreds of tokens ← Promised compensation
Root cause: A single key managing multi-asset wallets
Outcome: Promised Compensation from the treasury · Recovery: Declared complete — independent verification Limited
Contagion ← No documented contagion
Signals before failure: Custody opacitySingle point of failure
Unknowns: Independent proof of full compensation
Sources: peckshield trace 2021
AscendEX — the leaked-keys pattern recurs Exchange failure 2021-12 confidence 72
Hot wallet breach ← 77 million theft ← Declared compensation
Root cause: The same DNA as KuCoin/BitMart: centralized hot keys
Outcome: Declared compensation · Recovery: Declared
Contagion ← No documented contagion
Signals before failure: Custody opacity
Unknowns: Scarce technical details
Sources: trace reports 2021
Badger — the poisoned front-end Protocol failure 2021-12 confidence 79
Cloudflare key compromise on the front-end ← Injection of malicious approval requests ← Harvesting user approvals over weeks ← $120M drained
Root cause: The contracts intact and the front-end poisoned — the user signed what they did not see
Outcome: Among the largest front-end attacks · Recovery: Partial
Contagion ← No documented contagion
Signals before failure: Single point of failureCustody opacity
Unknowns: Full poisoning window before detection
Sources: post-mortem Dec 2021 · BadgerDAO (badger.tools): BadgerDAO Exploit Technical Post Mortem (2021-12) https://www.badger.tools/technical-post-mortem · Halborn: Explained: The BadgerDAO Hack (December 2021) (2021-12) https://www.halborn.com/blog/post/explained-the-badgerdao-hack-december-2021 · Rekt News: Rekt - Badger (2021-12) https://rekt.news/badger-rekt · CoinDesk: BadgerDAO Reveals Details of How It Was Hacked for $120M (2021-12-10) https://www.coindesk.com/business/2021/12/10/badgerdao-reveals-details-of-how-it-was-hacked-for-120m · Microsoft Security: 'Ice phishing' on the blockchain (2022-02-16) https://www.microsoft.com/en-us/security/blog/2022/02/16/ice-phishing-on-the-blockchain/
fUSD — Fantom's lame stablecoin Stablecoin failure 2021-12 confidence 64
Minting with volatile collateral ← Below the peg for most of its life ← Bad debt and later shutdown
Root cause: A chain stablecoin launched without real stabilizers
Outcome: Halted and restructured · Recovery: Weak
Contagion ← No documented contagion
Signals before failure: Reserve mismatch
Unknowns:
Sources: chain records
Warp Finance — a flash loan empties the lending Protocol failure 2021-12 confidence 64
Distortion of collateral price via a flash loan ← Borrowing beyond the coverage ← 8 million
Root cause: A thin-pool oracle + a Flash loan = a Drain
Outcome: Negotiating a Partial recovery · Recovery: Partial
Contagion ← BZX-2020
Signals before failure: Leverage expansionSingle point of failure
Unknowns:
Sources: Dec 2020
Visor — liquidity management drained Protocol failure 2021-12 confidence 58
Vulnerability in the position-management contract ← Minting of fake shares ← 8 million
Root cause: Automating liquidity management adds a breakable contract
Outcome: — · Recovery: None approximately
Contagion ← No documented contagion
Signals before failure: Single point of failure
Unknowns:
Sources: Dec 2021
Grim Finance — deposit reentrancy Protocol failure 2021-12 confidence 62
Reentrancy via an externally-calling token ← Inflated deposit ← 30 million
Root cause: Accepting tokens that call externally opens reentrancy
Outcome: — · Recovery: None approximately
Contagion ← AKROPOLIS-2020
Signals before failure: Single point of failure
Unknowns:
Sources: Dec 2021
Badger — phishing via the frontend Protocol failure 2021-12 confidence 74
Injection of a malicious script into the frontend ← Stolen spending approvals ← 120 million
Root cause: Contract security does not protect against a poisoned front end
Outcome: The largest documented front-end Breach · Recovery: Partial
Contagion ← BADGER-2021
Signals before failure: Single point of failureCustody opacity
Unknowns:
Sources: Dec 2021 · BadgerDAO (official): BadgerDAO Exploit Technical Post Mortem (with Mandiant) (2021-12) https://www.badger.tools/technical-post-mortem · Halborn: Explained: The BadgerDAO Hack (December 2021) (2021-12) https://www.halborn.com/blog/post/explained-the-badgerdao-hack-december-2021 · BadgerDAO governance forum: BIP 80: Restitution of non-recoverable assets via remBadger Sett (2022-01) https://forum.badger.finance/t/bip-80-restitution-of-non-recoverable-assets-via-rembadger-sett/5362 · BadgerDAO governance forum: Restitution 2.0 (2024-05-16) https://forum.badger.finance/t/restitution-2-0/6256
Squid Game — a game where no one can sell Fraud 2021-11 confidence 80
Token riding a TV-series wave ← Selling blocked in code ← Fake 23,000,000% surge ← Liquidity pulled
Root cause: The "anti-sell" mechanism was itself the trap
Outcome: The most famous speculation lesson for the general public · Recovery: None
Contagion ← No documented contagion
Signals before failure: Narrative fragility
Unknowns: Perpetrators unknown
Sources: trace Nov 2021
GYEN — peg breaking upward Stablecoin failure 2021-11 confidence 74
Major listing and thin liquidity ← Spike above the peg then reversion collapse ← Losses for buyers who thought it an investment
Root cause: A stablecoin with meager liquidity turns into pure speculation
Outcome: Lawsuits against the platforms over the timing · Recovery: Partial
Contagion ← No documented contagion
Signals before failure: Liquidity concentrationNarrative fragility
Unknowns:
Sources: listings Nov 2021
SnowDog — nine days to die Fraud 2021-11 confidence 64
A nine-day yield experiment ← A manipulated final buyback ← A 99% collapse in minutes
Root cause: A programmed Exit engineered in the garb of an experiment
Outcome: The clearest example of a pre-designed Exit mechanism · Recovery: None
Contagion ← OHM-FORKS-2022
Signals before failure: incentive_spiralLiquidity concentration
Unknowns: Intent of the designers
Sources: Nov 2021
Cream — the triple exploit Protocol failure 2021-10 confidence 80
Three exploits in one year ← The last one: $130M via manipulated share pricing ← Pattern repeated with no root-cause fix
Root cause: Accepting complex collateral priced internally — a surface that never closes
Outcome: Effectively exited the market · Recovery: None approximately
Contagion ← No documented contagion
Signals before failure: Liquidity concentrationLeverage expansion
Unknowns:
Sources: post-mortems 2021 · Merkle Science: Hack Track: Analysis of Cream Finance Hack (2021-10) https://blog.merklescience.com/hacktrack/hack-track-analysis-of-cream-finance-hack · CoinDesk: Cream Finance Exploited in Flash Loan Attack Netting Over $100M (2021-10-27) https://www.coindesk.com/business/2021/10/27/cream-finance-exploited-in-flash-loan-attack-worth-over-100m · Halborn: Explained: The CREAM Finance Hack (October 2021) (2021-10-30) https://www.halborn.com/blog/post/explained-the-cream-finance-hack-october-2021 · Immunefi: Hack Analysis: Cream Finance Oct 2021 (2022-11-09) https://medium.com/immunefi/hack-analysis-cream-finance-oct-2021-fc222d913fc5
AnubisDAO — $60M in 20 hours Fraud 2021-10 confidence 77
Meme launch with hype ← 13,700 ETH raised ← Liquidity moved to an external wallet overnight ← Eternal silence
Root cause: An outright rug: no liquidity lock and no identity
Outcome: Among the most cleanly documented scams on-chain · Recovery: None
Contagion ← No documented contagion
Signals before failure: Custody opacityNarrative fragility
Unknowns: Perpetrator unattributed despite tracing
Sources: on-chain trace Oct 2021
Evolved Apes — the vanished developer Fraud 2021-10 confidence 66
An ape collection with a promised game ← The developer's disappearance after the sale ← 798 Ether evaporate
Root cause: Anonymous identity + a liquid treasury = a predictable ending
Outcome: — · Recovery: None
Contagion ← No documented contagion
Signals before failure: Custody opacityNarrative fragility
Unknowns: The developer's identity
Sources: Oct 2021
Cream — the billion-dollar third round Protocol failure 2021-10 confidence 74
Price distortion via wrapped Ether and yUSD ← A complex chain of flash loans ← 130 million
Root cause: A protocol exploited three times teaches that a Patch is not enough
Outcome: The largest lending Exploit at the time · Recovery: None approximately
Contagion ← CREAM-2021
Signals before failure: Leverage expansionSingle point of failure
Unknowns:
Sources: Oct 2021
Compound — irreversible distribution Protocol failure 2021-09 confidence 79
Bug in the distribution-contract upgrade ← $90M of COMP disbursed by mistake ← No emergency clawback authority ← Moral appeals
Root cause: The governance upgrade is as slow as the bug itself — decentralization prevents the instant Fix
Outcome: A portion was recovered voluntarily · Recovery: Partial
Contagion ← No documented contagion
Signals before failure: Governance risk
Unknowns:
Sources: incident reports Sep 2021
CryptoZoo — a game that was never built Fraud 2021-09 confidence 70
Selling eggs and tokens for a promised game ← Silent abandonment of development ← A media scandal and very belated compensation
Root cause: An influencer project with no team capable of delivery
Outcome: Became the most famous "influencer projects" lesson · Recovery: Late Partial Compensation
Contagion ← No documented contagion
Signals before failure: Narrative fragility
Unknowns: The original launch intent
Sources: media investigations 2023
pNetwork — the bridge metadata vulnerability Bridge failure 2021-09 confidence 68
Flaw in proof verification ← Minting of 277 wrapped Bitcoin without backing ← Bounty negotiation and partial return
Root cause: A flawed proof verification over a valuable wrapped asset
Outcome: — · Recovery: Recovery via bounty
Contagion ← No documented contagion
Signals before failure: Single point of failure
Unknowns:
Sources: Sep 2021
Solana — the first September halt Infrastructure failure 2021-09 confidence 76
Transaction flood from launch bots ← Loss of consensus and a 17-hour halt ← A coordinated restart
Root cause: High throughput with no congestion control collapses under demand
Outcome: The first major outage reveals the Fragility of the early design · Recovery: Resumption
Contagion ← SOLANA-OUTAGES-2022
Signals before failure: Single point of failure
Unknowns:
Sources: Sep 2021 · Decrypt: Solana Has Been Down for Hours Due to 'Resource Exhaustion' (2021-09-14) https://decrypt.co/80917/solana-down-for-hours-resource-exhaustion · CoinDesk: Solana Validators Plan Network 'Restart' as Outage Continues (2021-09-14) https://www.coindesk.com/markets/2021/09/14/solana-validators-ready-potential-restart-amid-blockchain-outage · Solana Foundation (solana.com): 9-14 Network Outage Initial Overview (2021-09-20) https://solana.com/news/9-14-network-outage-initial-overview · Helius: A Complete History of Solana Outages: Causes and Fixes (2024-01) https://www.helius.dev/blog/solana-outages-complete-history
Liquid — a second major Japanese breach Exchange failure 2021-08 confidence 76
Wallet breach ← 97 million theft ← A rescue loan from FTX ← Acquisition then the rescuer's predicament
Root cause: Weak hot custody; then tying its fate to FTX
Outcome: Swallowed later by the rescuer's Collapse · Recovery: Partial within the FTX bankruptcy
Contagion ← FTX-2022
Signals before failure: Custody opacitySingle point of failure
Unknowns: The fate of its customers' claims within the larger bankruptcy
Sources: exchange statements 2021-2022
Poly Network — the largest recovery in history Bridge failure 2021-08 confidence 85
A permissions-logic flaw between contracts ← Withdrawal of 611 million ← A public dialogue with the hacker ← Full return
Root cause: A cross-contract function allowing the key guardian to be changed
Outcome: The hacker returned everything and was offered a security position · Recovery: Full — the most famous exception
Contagion ← No documented contagion
Signals before failure: Bridge dependencySingle point of failure
Unknowns: The hacker's true motives
Sources: post-mortem Aug 2021
Bitsonic — a CEO robbing his own platform Fraud 2021-08 confidence 68
Internal manipulation of balances and prices ← Direct theft of deposits ← Arrest of the CEO
Root cause: When the attacker is the management, no wall protects
Outcome: — · Recovery: Judicial Partial
Contagion ← No documented contagion
Signals before failure: Custody opacityGovernance risk
Unknowns:
Sources: KR arrest 2021
DAO Maker — a launchpad is breached Exchange failure 2021-08 confidence 58
Breach of the distribution contract ← Drain of contributors' funds ← Partial compensation
Root cause: Launchpads concentrate the funds of many in a single contract
Outcome: — · Recovery: Partial
Contagion ← No documented contagion
Signals before failure: Single point of failure
Unknowns:
Sources: Aug 2021
Finiko — Russia's Ponzi Fraud 2021-07 confidence 75
Fantastical monthly returns ← $1.5B in Bitcoin flows ← Collapse, flight, then arrest
Root cause: A regional Ponzi with a crypto facade
Outcome: Among the largest operations in Eastern Europe · Recovery: None approximately
Contagion ← No documented contagion
Signals before failure: Artificial yield
Unknowns: The full collection network
Sources: chainalysis + RU cases
ChainSwap — a bridge drained twice Bridge failure 2021-07 confidence 68
Minting vulnerability via the bridge ← Draining of dozens of listed tokens ← Repeat of the attack within days
Root cause: A Bridge on a shared contract turns one vulnerability into a multi-project disaster
Outcome: Among the earliest lessons on shared-bridge risk · Recovery: Partial compensation
Contagion ← No documented contagion
Signals before failure: Single point of failure
Unknowns:
Sources: Jul 2021
AnySwap — repeated signature exposes the key Bridge failure 2021-07 confidence 70
Reuse of a signature value exposes the private key ← Draining of the liquidity pools ← 8 million
Root cause: A subtle cryptographic error exposes the Bridge key
Outcome: An early seed of the later Multichain tragedy · Recovery: Partial
Contagion ← MULTICHAIN-2023
Signals before failure: Single point of failure
Unknowns:
Sources: Jul 2021 · Zengo Wallet (Tal Be'ery): Without Permit: Multichain's Exploit Explained (2021) https://medium.com/zengo/without-permit-multichains-exploit-explained-8417e8c1639b · Quadriga Initiative: AnySwap ECDSA Exploit - $7.8m (2021-07) https://www.quadrigainitiative.com/hackfraudscam/anyswapecdsaexploit.php · Anyswap: Anyswap Multichain Router V3 Exploit Statement (2021-07-11) https://anyswap.medium.com/anyswap-multichain-router-v3-exploit-statement-6833f1b7e6fb · Multichain (formerly Anyswap): Anyswap-MPCNode Bug Report (July 15, 2021) (2021-07-15) https://medium.com/multichainorg/anyswap-mpcnode-bug-report-f10dce27fe99
Iron Finance — the first documented algorithmic bank run Stablecoin failure 2021-06 confidence 83
A partially-collateralized peg ← Growth driven by absurd farming yield ← Whale selling ← Breaking of the redemption mechanism ← TITAN's collapse to effective zero
Root cause: Terra's early rehearsal: Partial collateral + reflexivity = zero, and the sector did not learn
Outcome: Full Collapse within hours · Recovery: No Recovery
Contagion ← TERRA-2022
Signals before failure: Artificial yieldReserve mismatch
Unknowns: Was it naive design or a deliberate exploit?
Sources: project post-mortem Jun 2021 · Omniscia (audit firm): Iron Finance Titan Post-Mortem Analysis (2021-06) https://medium.com/@omniscia.io/iron-finance-titan-post-mortem-analysis-f1d3fd1abbc9 · CoinDesk: In Token Crash Postmortem, Iron Finance Says It Suffered Crypto's 'First Large-Scale Bank Run' (2021-06-17) https://www.coindesk.com/markets/2021/06/17/in-token-crash-postmortem-iron-finance-says-it-suffered-cryptos-first-large-scale-bank-run · Iron Finance (official): Iron Finance Post-Mortem 17 June 2021 (2021-06-17) https://ironfinance.medium.com/iron-finance-post-mortem-17-june-2021-6a4e9ccf23f5 · Federal Reserve Board: Runs on Algorithmic Stablecoins: Evidence from Iron, Titan, and Steel (FEDS Notes) (2022-06-02) https://www.federalreserve.gov/econres/notes/feds-notes/runs-on-algorithmic-stablecoins-evidence-from-iron-titan-and-steel-20220602.html
Titan — anatomy of the absolute zero Stablecoin failure 2021-06 confidence 72
Mint reflexivity with no floor ← Price touching effective zero ← Large holders burned publicly
Root cause: The first documented touch of zero for a billion-scale token
Outcome: The lesson the 2022 imitators ignored · Recovery: None
Contagion ← IRON-2021
Signals before failure: Artificial yield
Unknowns:
Sources: price records 2021
VAI — Venus's forgotten stablecoin Stablecoin failure 2021-06 confidence 64
Minting without an effective peg mechanism ← Chronic trading below the dollar ← Long governance neglect
Root cause: A stablecoin launched as a feature, not a finished product
Outcome: The example of the abandoned peg · Recovery: Incomplete
Contagion ← VENUS-2021
Signals before failure: Reserve mismatch
Unknowns:
Sources: peg history
Save the Kids — the dump charity Fraud 2021-06 confidence 68
A charity token with influencer promotion ← Altering the sell limits before launch ← A coordinated dump within days
Root cause: The word "charity" was part of the payload
Outcome: Exposed the Full-paid promotion economy · Recovery: None
Contagion ← No documented contagion
Signals before failure: Narrative fragilityLiquidity concentration
Unknowns:
Sources: investigations 2021
Iron/TITAN — first documented death spiral Stablecoin failure 2021-06 confidence 76
Partially collateralized stablecoin ← Withdrawal triggers infinite TITAN minting ← TITAN collapse to zero
Root cause: Partial collateral becomes a Death spiral during panic
Outcome: The model that warned of Terra a year earlier · Recovery: None
Contagion ← IRON-2021
Signals before failure: Reserve mismatchincentive_spiral
Unknowns:
Sources: Jun 2021
PancakeBunny — suicidal reward printing Protocol failure 2021-05 confidence 76
Flash loan inflates the reward calculation ← 7M tokens minted ← Price collapse 95% ← Economic death
Root cause: A reward-minting formula reading a manipulable instantaneous price
Outcome: The protocol did not recover economically · Recovery: None
Contagion ← No documented contagion
Signals before failure: Artificial yieldLiquidity concentration
Unknowns:
Sources: post-mortem May 2021
Spartan — the broken liquidation calculation Protocol failure 2021-05 confidence 72
Bug in the share-calculation formula ← Flash loan ← $30M drained
Root cause: The pool's mathematics itself is broken
Outcome: Continued with a smaller base · Recovery: Partial
Contagion ← No documented contagion
Signals before failure: Liquidity concentration
Unknowns:
Sources: post-mortem May 2021
Venus — liquidation of the trapped whale Liquidity failure 2021-05 confidence 75
Pumping a governance-token price on thin liquidity ← Maximum borrowing against it ← Price collapse ← $100M of bad debt
Root cause: Collateral from a token whose holders control its price temporarily
Outcome: Enormous Bad debt absorbed by the protocol · Recovery: Partial, long-term
Contagion ← No documented contagion
Signals before failure: Liquidity concentrationLeverage expansion
Unknowns: Coordination of the pump — internal or external?
Sources: post-mortem May 2021
Rari first incident — before the merger Protocol failure 2021-05 confidence 70
Integration vulnerability with an external protocol ← $11 million loss ← Governance-led compensation
Root cause: Approvals are the first attack surface for aggregators
Outcome: The warning that preceded the merger catastrophe · Recovery: Compensation
Contagion ← FEIRARI-2022
Signals before failure: Single point of failure
Unknowns:
Sources: post-mortem May 2021 · Rari Capital (official): 5/8/2021: Rari Capital Ethereum Pool — Post-Mortem (2021-05) https://medium.com/rari-capital/5-8-2021-rari-ethereum-pool-post-mortem-60aab6a6f8f9 · Cointelegraph: Rari Capital falls victim to $11 million exploit (2021-05) https://cointelegraph.com/news/rari-capital-falls-victim-to-11-million-exploit · Finance Magnates: Rari Capital to Compensate Users following $10M ETH Exploit (2021-05) https://www.financemagnates.com/cryptocurrency/news/rari-capital-to-compensate-users-following-10-million-eth-exploit/ · SlowMist: SlowMist: An Analysis of the Attack on Rari (2021-05) https://slowmist.medium.com/slowmist-an-analysis-of-the-attack-on-rari-31bbca767ec2
4Tube — an early oracle manipulation Protocol failure 2021-05 confidence 58
Distortion of a small asset's price ← Borrowing against an inflated value ← About a million
Root cause: Small assets as collateral are lending's weak point
Outcome: — · Recovery: Partial
Contagion ← No documented contagion
Signals before failure: Single point of failure
Unknowns:
Sources: May 2021
Chinese mining ban — hashrate migration Infrastructure failure 2021-05 confidence 78
Comprehensive mining ban ← Hashrate drop of 50% ← Major miner migration
Root cause: Geographic concentration of mining is a mass regulatory risk
Outcome: The largest hash migration in history · Recovery: Recovery and redistribution
Contagion ← No documented contagion
Signals before failure: Single point of failure
Unknowns:
Sources: May-Jul 2021
Thodex — the Turkish founder's flight Fraud 2021-04 confidence 80
Sudden withdrawal halt ← The founder fleeing with customer funds ← International pursuit ← Extradition and a symbolic 11-thousand-year sentence
Root cause: An outright Exit fraud
Outcome: A landmark Turkish Ruling against the founder · Recovery: Near None
Contagion ← No documented contagion
Signals before failure: Custody opacityGovernance risk
Unknowns: The true amount is disputed between 24 million and two billion dollars
Sources: Turkish court records 2023
Africrypt — the fugitive brothers Fraud 2021-04 confidence 70
A claimed breach ← Alleged transfer of 3.6 billion rand ← Disappearance of the two founding brothers
Root cause: An Exit fraud under the cover of an alleged "Breach"
Outcome: Ongoing South African Prosecutions · Recovery: None
Contagion ← No documented contagion
Signals before failure: Custody opacity
Unknowns: The actual versus alleged amount — a wide gap
Sources: SA investigations 2021
Uranium — the one-line mistake Protocol failure 2021-04 confidence 74
Code fork with an altered math constant ← Breaking the swap equation ← 50 million drain ← Insider suspicion
Root cause: Code cloning with a blind change to a critical constant
Outcome: A surprising Partial recovery case in 2024 · Recovery: Partial, delayed
Contagion ← No documented contagion
Signals before failure: Single point of failure
Unknowns: Unresolved insider-collusion suspicion
Sources: trace 2021, recovery 2024
VAI — the formation trap Stablecoin failure 2021-04 confidence 76
Massive formation with complex incentives ← Sell penalties locking in users ← Weeks below the peg and collective anger
Root cause: A punitive incentive design that punishes the Exit rather than protecting the peg
Outcome: The penalties were later cancelled, then it merged and ended · Recovery: Partial
Contagion ← FEIRARI-2022
Signals before failure: Artificial yieldNarrative fragility
Unknowns:
Sources: launch records Apr 2021
FCoin — collapse after Thodex Exchange failure 2021-04 confidence 66
Sudden shutdown days after Thodex ← Immediate arrests ← Funds stuck
Root cause: The national Collapse of trust drops the weakest one after another
Outcome: Contagion within a single regulatorily pressured market · Recovery: Weak
Contagion ← THODEX-2021
Signals before failure: Custody opacityTreasury stress
Unknowns:
Sources: TR records Apr 2021
EasyFi — the founder's compromised key Protocol failure 2021-04 confidence 58
Breach of the founder's device ← Control over the admin contracts ← Drain of 6 million and freeze
Root cause: A single developer's device is a gateway to the whole protocol
Outcome: — · Recovery: Partial freeze
Contagion ← No documented contagion
Signals before failure: Custody opacitySingle point of failure
Unknowns:
Sources: Apr 2021
Empty Set Dollar — the coupon spiral Stablecoin failure 2021-03 confidence 70
Expansion via coupon incentives ← Contraction requiring new buyers ← Collapse of confidence and death of the peg
Root cause: The rebase mechanism works only upward
Outcome: The entire coupon generation died by the same pattern · Recovery: None
Contagion ← BASIS-2020
Signals before failure: Artificial yieldReserve mismatch
Unknowns:
Sources: onchain records 2021 · AIER / The Daily Economy: Algorithmic Stablecoins (J.P. Koning) (2021-02) https://thedailyeconomy.org/article/algorithmic-stablecoins/ · Cointelegraph: Algorithmic stablecoins aren't really stable, but can the concept redeem itself? (2021-02) https://cointelegraph.com/news/algorithmic-stablecoins-aren-t-really-stable-but-can-the-concept-redeem-itself · Wake Forest Law Review Online: Built to Fail: The Inherent Fragility of Algorithmic Stablecoins (Clements) (2021-10) https://www.wakeforestlawreview.com/2021/10/built-to-fail-the-inherent-fragility-of-algorithmic-stablecoins/ · Fast Company: Panics and death spirals: a history of failed stablecoins (2022-05) https://www.fastcompany.com/90751716/panics-and-death-spirals-a-history-of-failed-stablecoins
LBRY — death by legal costs Governance failure 2021-03 confidence 74
A classification lawsuit over a video-platform token ← A court loss in 2022 ← Closure of the company under the weight of costs
Root cause: The regulatory dispute itself is a death sentence for the small players
Outcome: "Won the principle Partially and died operationally" · Recovery: None
Contagion ← No documented contagion
Signals before failure: Governance riskTreasury stress
Unknowns:
Sources: SEC v LBRY
Bid Network — compromised minting privilege Protocol failure 2021-03 confidence 58
Breach of the contract's privileged key ← Minting and a massive dump ← Declared compensation
Root cause: A retained mint permission is a callable debt
Outcome: — · Recovery: Compensation
Contagion ← No documented contagion
Signals before failure: Single point of failureCustody opacity
Unknowns:
Sources: Mar 2021
Meerkat — a day-one rug Fraud 2021-03 confidence 58
Launch on Binance Chain with hype ← Immediate disappearance of 31 million ← An unconvincing claim of a breach
Root cause: Disappearance on launch day is the signature of outright fraud
Outcome: Archive of instant-launch fraud · Recovery: None
Contagion ← No documented contagion
Signals before failure: Custody opacity
Unknowns: Team identity
Sources: Mar 2021
Turtle DEX — promised staking vanishes Fraud 2021-03 confidence 54
ICO in project Decentralized storage ← Pulling liquidity and disappearing ← Deletion of digital presence
Root cause: A complex technical promise is a cover for a simple fraud
Outcome: — · Recovery: None
Contagion ← MEERKAT-2021
Signals before failure: Custody opacityNarrative fragility
Unknowns:
Sources: Mar 2021
Alpha Homora — the hidden ibETH debt Protocol failure 2021-02 confidence 76
Manipulation of an internal lending share ← Chained borrowing ← $37M stolen from a two-protocol relationship
Root cause: Mutual trust between two protocols without sufficient verification
Outcome: Successful gradual repayment of the debts · Recovery: Near-complete
Contagion ← No documented contagion
Signals before failure: Leverage expansion
Unknowns:
Sources: post-mortem Feb 2021
Tether — the New York settlement Stablecoin failure 2021-02 confidence 80
Investigation into a hidden reserve gap ← $18.5 million settlement and a state ban ← Mandate for periodic disclosures
Root cause: Lending the reserve to a sister company without disclosure
Outcome: The first forced disclosure of the reserve composition · Recovery: Ongoing obligation
Contagion ← No documented contagion
Signals before failure: Reserve mismatchCustody opacity
Unknowns: Reserve quality over time
Sources: NYAG Feb 2021
Basis Cash and Empty Set — the dead seigniorage generation Stablecoin failure 2020-12 confidence 74
Seigniorage mechanics with no collateral ← Incentives collapse under the peg ← Rapid death spiral ← An entire generation fails
Root cause: The promised yield is the only collateral — it collapses when needed
Outcome: The mass failure that Terra's designers ignored · Recovery: None
Contagion ← TERRA-2022
Signals before failure: Artificial yieldNarrative fragility
Unknowns: An alleged later founder link between Basis and Do Kwon
Sources: mechanism post-mortems 2021 · Protos: Basis Cash: The failed algorithmic stablecoin Do Kwon didn't learn from (2022-05) https://protos.com/basis-cash-the-failed-algorithmic-stablecoin-do-kwon-didnt-learn-from/ · Fast Company: Panics and death spirals: a history of failed stablecoins (2022-05) https://www.fastcompany.com/90751716/panics-and-death-spirals-a-history-of-failed-stablecoins · CoinDesk: UST's Do Kwon Was Behind Earlier Failed Stablecoin, Ex-Terra Colleagues Say (2022-05-11) https://www.coindesk.com/tech/2022/05/11/usts-do-kwon-was-behind-earlier-failed-stablecoin-ex-terra-colleagues-say
Livecoin — the price engine itself breached Exchange failure 2020-12 confidence 70
Takeover of the price engine ← Bitcoin quoted in the hundreds of thousands ← Withdrawal of fake profits then collapse of the platform
Root cause: Whoever owns the pricing engine owns the treasury
Outcome: The strangest documented platform Breach mechanism · Recovery: None
Contagion ← No documented contagion
Signals before failure: Single point of failureCustody opacity
Unknowns: The attackers' identity
Sources: statements Dec 2020
EXMO — a hot wallet without isolation Exchange failure 2020-12 confidence 66
$10.5 million breached from the hot wallet ← Temporary halt ← Compensation from operating fees
Root cause: 5% hot was 100% of the loss
Outcome: — · Recovery: Gradual Full
Contagion ← No documented contagion
Signals before failure: Custody opacity
Unknowns:
Sources: statements Dec 2020
Mirror Trading — South Africa's pyramid Fraud 2020-12 confidence 74
An alleged trading bot with daily returns ← 23,000 Bitcoin from 471,000 victims ← The founder's flight and later death
Root cause: A bot that never loses = a pyramid feeding on newcomers
Outcome: The largest documented Bitcoin pyramid at the time · Recovery: Partial Liquidation
Contagion ← No documented contagion
Signals before failure: Artificial yield
Unknowns: The full money trail
Sources: liquidation records
Ripple — a lawsuit that defined a market Market structure failure 2020-12 confidence 80
A securities-classification lawsuit ← Mass US delistings ← Years of dispute and a split ruling in 2023
Root cause: Regulatory classification ambiguity freezes an asset Full for years
Outcome: The Partial Ruling mapped institutional versus public sale · Recovery: Partial recovery
Contagion ← No documented contagion
Signals before failure: Governance riskNarrative fragility
Unknowns: The final classification standard
Sources: SEC v Ripple
Nexus Mutual — social engineering of the founder Fraud 2020-12 confidence 62
Targeting the founder personally ← A deceived transfer signature ← Theft of 8 million from his wallet
Root cause: Even an insurance protocol's founder falls victim to human deception
Outcome: A lesson that humans are the weakest link · Recovery: Personal
Contagion ← No documented contagion
Signals before failure: Custody opacitySingle point of failure
Unknowns:
Sources: Dec 2020
Pickle — the punctured pickle jar Protocol failure 2020-11 confidence 75
Fake jar passed into the system ← $20M of DAI deposits diverted ← Rescue merger with Yearn
Root cause: Absence of authenticity verification of the pluggable components
Outcome: Led to the Yearn Finance merger · Recovery: Partial through the merger
Contagion ← No documented contagion
Signals before failure: Single point of failure
Unknowns:
Sources: post-mortem Nov 2020
Infura — when "decentralization" went down Market structure failure 2020-11 confidence 78
Silent upgrade bug in an old Geth node ← An unnoticed chain split ← Infura outage ← MetaMask and major platforms down with it
Root cause: Half the ecosystem reads the chain from a single provider
Outcome: The founding lesson about infrastructure centralization · Recovery: Hours then Recovery
Contagion ← No documented contagion
Signals before failure: Single point of failure
Unknowns:
Sources: incident reports Nov 2020
Cred — the first shadow lender Fraud 2020-11 confidence 72
Lending customer funds to a single Chinese counterparty ← Hidden losses and suspicious transfers ← Sudden bankruptcy
Root cause: Yield brokerage with no Exposure transparency — two years before Celsius
Outcome: The early 2020 warning that everyone ignored · Recovery: Weak
Contagion ← CELSIUS-2022
Signals before failure: Artificial yieldCustody opacity
Unknowns: The fate of the transferred funds
Sources: bankruptcy Nov 2020
Akropolis — a classic reentrancy Protocol failure 2020-11 confidence 64
Reentrancy vulnerability in the deposit pool ← Repeated withdrawal before the balance update ← 2 million
Root cause: The reentrancy pattern did not die despite its fame
Outcome: A reminder that old patterns recur · Recovery: Partial
Contagion ← No documented contagion
Signals before failure: Single point of failure
Unknowns:
Sources: Nov 2020 · Crypto Briefing: DeFi Project Akropolis Just Lost $2 Million. Here's What They're Doing About It. (2020-11) https://cryptobriefing.com/defi-project-akropolis-lost-2-million-heres-what-theyre-doing-about-it/ · The Block: DeFi project Akropolis exploited for over $2 million in DAI (2020-11) https://www.theblock.co/linked/84490/defi-project-akropolis-exploited-for-over-2-million · ethereumvex (GitHub): Reconstruction of the Akropolis Delphi reentrancy exploit (2020-11) https://github.com/ethereumvex/Akropolis-delphi-exploit · CoinDesk: DeFi Project Akropolis Drained of $2M in DAI (2020-11-12) https://www.coindesk.com/tech/2020/11/12/defi-project-akropolis-drained-of-2m-in-dai
Value DeFi — the first flash-loan showcase Protocol failure 2020-11 confidence 66
Flash loan that distorts an internal Curve pool ← Withdrawal of 6 million ← The attacker's mocking message
Root cause: The attacker himself declared that the flash loan is not exclusive
Outcome: A founding incident in flash-loan awareness · Recovery: Partial
Contagion ← No documented contagion
Signals before failure: Leverage expansionSingle point of failure
Unknowns:
Sources: Nov 2020
Compound — DAI spike liquidates a million Protocol failure 2020-11 confidence 68
DAI price manipulation on a single protocol ← Oracle reads the spike ← Liquidations of 89 million potential, 9 million actual
Root cause: Reliance on a single price source for Liquidation is an existential risk
Outcome: A push toward a multi-source oracle · Recovery: Losses for liquidators
Contagion ← CHAINLINK-SPIKE-2022
Signals before failure: Single point of failure
Unknowns:
Sources: Nov 2020
Harvest — reaping the yield farmers Protocol failure 2020-10 confidence 78
Flash loan moves Curve pool prices ← Vault entry and exit at a distorted price ← Repeated 30 times in minutes ← $24M drained
Root cause: Pricing the share instantaneously from a manipulable pool
Outcome: Returned a portion and issued a bounty · Recovery: Partial
Contagion ← No documented contagion
Signals before failure: Liquidity concentration
Unknowns: Perpetrator unknown
Sources: post-mortem Oct 2020
OKX — the detained key Exchange failure 2020-10 confidence 78
Detention of the key holder by the authorities ← Freezing of withdrawals for five weeks ← Return with promises of decentralized custody
Root cause: One person's key froze a global platform for a month and a half
Outcome: The clearest «founder key» lesson in history · Recovery: Full after the release
Contagion ← No documented contagion
Signals before failure: Single point of failureCustody opacity
Unknowns: The original nature of the investigation
Sources: statements Oct-Nov 2020
BitMEX — the founders in the dock Exchange failure 2020-10 confidence 78
Charges of unlicensed operation and anti-money-laundering failures ← Resignations, admissions and fines ← A $100 million fine and personal sentences
Root cause: Growth above oversight is a debt paid in court
Outcome: The precedent of holding founders Personally accountable · Recovery: Continuation under new management
Contagion ← No documented contagion
Signals before failure: Governance risk
Unknowns:
Sources: DOJ/CFTC 2020-22
KuCoin — private-key breach Exchange failure 2020-09 confidence 80
Leak of hot-wallet keys ← Withdrawal of 280 million ← Freezing via the issuers ← Recovery of most of it
Root cause: Compromised centralized key management
Outcome: Recovered 84% through cooperation of projects and Freeze of contracts · Recovery: Near-complete
Contagion ← No documented contagion
Signals before failure: Custody opacity
Unknowns: The details of the internal breach were never published
Sources: exchange post-mortem 2020
Sushi — the chef takes the treasury Governance failure 2020-09 confidence 78
Anonymous founder pulls the $14M dev share ← Trust collapse ← Community pressure ← Funds returned and keys handed over
Root cause: Treasury privileges in the hands of a single unknown party
Outcome: Returned the amount and apologized; the precedent of the "reversible rug" · Recovery: Full
Contagion ← No documented contagion
Signals before failure: Custody opacityGovernance risk
Unknowns: The identity of Chef Nomi
Sources: on-chain + apology Sep 2020
Eterbase — Slovakia tested Exchange failure 2020-09 confidence 64
$5.4 million hot wallet breach ← Freeze then a brief restart ← Final shutdown
Root cause: Recovery needs trust capital the small platforms do not possess
Outcome: — · Recovery: None approximately
Contagion ← No documented contagion
Signals before failure: Custody opacity
Unknowns:
Sources: statements 2020
Arbistar — the Canary Islands bot Fraud 2020-09 confidence 66
An alleged arbitrage bot in Spain ← Sudden freeze on the pretext of a calculation error ← Criminal prosecution
Root cause: "An algorithm error" = the newcomers' money ran out
Outcome: — · Recovery: Judicial
Contagion ← No documented contagion
Signals before failure: Artificial yield
Unknowns:
Sources: ES courts 2020
Eminence — an unfinished contract drained Protocol failure 2020-09 confidence 66
An unannounced experimental contract discovered ← A flash loan drains it ← 15 million and a partial return
Root cause: Deploying unready code on a live network is like leaving the vault open
Outcome: The lesson of "do not deploy before announcing" · Recovery: Half returned
Contagion ← No documented contagion
Signals before failure: Single point of failure
Unknowns:
Sources: Sep 2020
YAM — death by rebase within 36 hours Protocol failure 2020-08 confidence 80
Launch with no audit ← Bug in the rebase function inflates the reserve ← Governance paralyzed by the same bug ← Immediate clinical death
Root cause: A broken line in the elastic-supply logic killed the governance capable of fixing it
Outcome: A token of the reckless DeFi summer era · Recovery: A faint Relaunch
Contagion ← No documented contagion
Signals before failure: Governance riskArtificial yield
Unknowns:
Sources: post-mortem Aug 2020
Coinbit — confiscated wash trading Fraud 2020-08 confidence 68
Inflating 99% of volumes internally ← Artificial price spreads ← Korean raid and seizure
Root cause: Volume without depth is accounting fraud
Outcome: A precedent for the Seizure of a wash-trading platform · Recovery: Judicial
Contagion ← No documented contagion
Signals before failure: Narrative fragility
Unknowns:
Sources: KR seizure Aug 2020
Medalla — testnet halt Infrastructure failure 2020-08 confidence 68
A timing error in the validator clients ← Loss of finality on the testnet ← A coordinated recovery
Root cause: Client diversity is a survival condition, not a luxury
Outcome: A lesson from before the pivotal merge · Recovery: Recovery
Contagion ← No documented contagion
Signals before failure: Single point of failure
Unknowns:
Sources: Aug 2020
Telegram TON — the great refund Governance failure 2020-06 confidence 80
A $1.7 billion private placement ← A court injunction against the launch ← Refunding the money and abandoning the project
Root cause: Selling tokens of a network not yet born was deemed a securities sale
Outcome: issuing project · Recovery: Return of 1.2 billion
Contagion ← No documented contagion
Signals before failure: Governance risk
Unknowns:
Sources: SEC 2020
WoToken — heir to PlusToken Fraud 2020-05 confidence 73
Same structure as PlusToken ← An additional $1B ← Chinese sentences
Root cause: Cloning the Ponzi works as long as memory is short
Outcome: A direct extension of the Plus Token networks · Recovery: Seizures
Contagion ← No documented contagion
Signals before failure: Artificial yield
Unknowns:
Sources: CN court 2020
dForce — reentrancy of the standard token Protocol failure 2020-04 confidence 66
Reentrancy via a callback token standard ← 25 million drain ← Full return by the attacker
Root cause: The token standard's interaction with lending opens reentrancy
Outcome: A rare case of Full return · Recovery: Repaid in Full
Contagion ← No documented contagion
Signals before failure: Single point of failure
Unknowns:
Sources: Apr 2020
Maker — Black Thursday Stablecoin failure 2020-03 confidence 84
March crash chokes the network ← Liquidation auctions won at zero DAI ← $5.3 million shortfall and a debt auction
Root cause: A Liquidation mechanism not designed for a fatal network congestion
Outcome: The auctions were redesigned in Full afterward · Recovery: Partial compensation via a governance auction
Contagion ← No documented contagion
Signals before failure: Single point of failureLiquidity concentration
Unknowns:
Sources: maker records Mar 2020
FCoin — trade mining commits suicide Exchange failure 2020-02 confidence 78
A "trade mining" model distributing more than its revenue ← Massive fake volume ← A gap accumulating in secret ← The founder's admission of a 130 million shortfall
Root cause: A token economy paying users more than it earns — an unintended structural Ponzi
Outcome: A rare public admission from the founder · Recovery: Near None
Contagion ← No documented contagion
Signals before failure: Artificial yieldCustody opacity
Unknowns: Was it an operational shortfall or embezzlement? The founder claimed the former
Sources: founder letter Feb 2020
bZx — the first flash-loan attacks Protocol failure 2020-02 confidence 82
A massive flash loan ← Price manipulation via thin markets ← Borrowing against inflated collateral ← Attack repeated twice in one week
Root cause: An oracle reading from a market manipulable with a Flash loan
Outcome: Opened the era of flash loan attacks · Recovery: Partial
Contagion ← No documented contagion
Signals before failure: Liquidity concentration
Unknowns:
Sources: post-mortems Feb 2020
Altsbit — the small one that never recovered Exchange failure 2020-02 confidence 62
Breach of most hot balances ← Declared partial compensation ← Final shutdown after months
Root cause: Marginal without a single absorption margin protocol
Outcome: The pattern of the small dying after the first wound · Recovery: Partial then closure
Contagion ← No documented contagion
Signals before failure: Custody opacityTreasury stress
Unknowns:
Sources: records Feb 2020
QuadrigaCX — the exhumation requests Fraud 2019-12 confidence 66
Doubts about the declared death ← A formal request to exhume the grave ← Ongoing mystery
Root cause: The extreme of distrust: doubting the death itself
Outcome: A symbol of the sector's early opacity · Recovery: Unresolved
Contagion ← QUADRIGA-2019
Signals before failure: Custody opacity
Unknowns: The death itself
Sources: FBI/RCMP records
BitClub Network — the phantom mining shares Fraud 2019-12 confidence 74
Selling mining shares with falsified figures ← $722 million over years ← Arrests and confessions
Root cause: Profits displayed but not produced
Outcome: — · Recovery: Judicial Partial
Contagion ← No documented contagion
Signals before failure: Artificial yield
Unknowns:
Sources: DOJ Dec 2019
Upbit — a single transfer of 300,000 Ether Exchange failure 2019-11 confidence 76
Transfer of 342,000 Ether to an unknown wallet ← Immediate compensation from reserves ← Later attribution to North Korea
Root cause: A single move from the hot wallet was enough
Outcome: The strength of the reserve prevented a trust crisis · Recovery: Full
Contagion ← No documented contagion
Signals before failure: Custody opacity
Unknowns: The internal details of the breach
Sources: KR indictments 2024
Einstein — the locked door in Vancouver Exchange failure 2019-11 confidence 70
Accumulating withdrawal complaints ← Regulator intervention and a court-appointed receiver ← Almost nothing in the treasuries
Root cause: Fractional-reserve operation down to the last dollar
Outcome: A miniature Canadian version of QuadrigaCX · Recovery: None approximately
Contagion ← No documented contagion
Signals before failure: Reserve mismatchCustody opacity
Unknowns: The fate of customer funds
Sources: BCSC 2019
IDAX — the director and the keys vanish Exchange failure 2019-11 confidence 58
Disappearance of the director holding access ← Freezing of the cold wallets ← Withdrawal halt
Root cause: Concentrating access in one individual's hands freezes a platform upon their disappearance
Outcome: Recurrence of the single-key pattern · Recovery: None approximately
Contagion ← QUADRIGA-2019
Signals before failure: Custody opacitySingle point of failure
Unknowns: Fate of the director
Sources: Nov 2019
Bitpoint — Japan tested again Exchange failure 2019-07 confidence 74
$32 million hot wallet breach ← Suspension of services ← Compensation from the parent company
Root cause: Even after Coincheck, the hot stayed hot
Outcome: Accelerated the tightening of Japanese oversight · Recovery: Full
Contagion ← COINCHECK-2018
Signals before failure: Custody opacity
Unknowns:
Sources: JP FSA 2019
PlusToken — China's giant Ponzi Fraud 2019-06 confidence 84
A wallet with a promised monthly yield ← $2.9B from millions of victims ← Collapse and flight ← Chinese arrests and sentences
Root cause: A classic wallet Ponzi at unprecedented scale
Outcome: The sale of Seizures affected the Bitcoin market itself 2019-2020 · Recovery: Government Seizures
Contagion ← No documented contagion
Signals before failure: Artificial yield
Unknowns: Market impact of liquidating seized assets — estimated but unconfirmed
Sources: CN court records 2020
Synthetix — the broken Korean-won oracle Protocol failure 2019-06 confidence 74
A broken price feed for a fiat currency ← An arbitrage bot accumulates paper billions ← Amicable recovery negotiation
Root cause: A single broken oracle prints paper wealth
Outcome: Among the earliest major oracle lessons · Recovery: Full by negotiation
Contagion ← No documented contagion
Signals before failure: Single point of failure
Unknowns:
Sources: post-mortem 2019
GitHub — Ripple keys leak Exchange failure 2019-06 confidence 66
Unauthorized access to hundreds of wallets ← Theft of around $10 million in XRP ← A drawn-out investigation
Root cause: Centralized customer key management with a single vulnerability
Outcome: Within the wave targeting the Ripple ecosystem · Recovery: Partial
Contagion ← No documented contagion
Signals before failure: Custody opacity
Unknowns:
Sources: reports Jun 2019
Kik — Kin under the hammer Governance failure 2019-06 confidence 74
A $100 million offering in 2017 ← A classification lawsuit ← A $5 million fine and marginal survival
Root cause: Funding a struggling company by selling tokens drew the regulator
Outcome: Among the first Full classification battles · Recovery: Fine
Contagion ← No documented contagion
Signals before failure: Governance risk
Unknowns:
Sources: SEC 2019-20
DragonEx — Lazarus advances Exchange failure 2019-03 confidence 70
A malicious app deceiving an employee ← Draining of the wallets ← A rare admission of the breach and a request for help
Root cause: State-level social engineering against a small platform
Outcome: Among the earliest clear fingerprints of Lazarus · Recovery: Partial
Contagion ← No documented contagion
Signals before failure: Custody opacity
Unknowns:
Sources: attribution reports
Coinbene — the rolling maintenance Exchange failure 2019-03 confidence 66
Massive undisclosed outflow ← Official denial under the guise of maintenance ← On-chain evidence contradicting the narrative
Root cause: Denying a Breach documented on the chain burns trust twice
Outcome: A reference case in «exposed denial» · Recovery: Opaque
Contagion ← No documented contagion
Signals before failure: Custody opacityNarrative fragility
Unknowns: The real size of the loss
Sources: onchain analyses 2019
QuadrigaCX — the key that died with its holder Fraud 2019-01 confidence 84
A sole founder holding all the keys ← A death announced in India ← Cold wallets empty to begin with ← Discovery of a Ponzi scheme
Root cause: No governance whatsoever: a single person, and the forensic review found the funds were spent before the death
Outcome: Ontario investigation: classic fraud, not an accident · Recovery: Near None
Contagion ← No documented contagion
Signals before failure: Custody opacityGovernance riskSingle point of failure
Unknowns: The circumstances of the death itself remain the subject of documented doubt
Sources: OSC report 2020 · EY monitor reports · Bloomberg via Insurance Journal (secondary, top-tier): Mystery of Quadriga's Missing Cryptocurrencies Deepens as 'Cold Wallets' Found Empty (2019-03-04) https://www.insurancejournal.com/news/international/2019/03/04/519393.htm · FBI (with IRS-CI, DOJ CCIPS, USAO-DC): Seeking Victims in the QuadrigaCX Investigation (2019-06) https://www.fbi.gov/how-we-can-help-you/victim-services/seeking-victim-information/seeking-victims-in-the-quadrigacx-investigation · Ernst & Young Inc., Court-Appointed Monitor (Supreme Court of Nova Scotia): Fifth Report of the Monitor, Quadriga Fintech Solutions Corp. (CCAA) (2019-06-19) https://documentcentre.eycan.com/eycm_library/Quadriga%20Fintech%20Solutions%20Corp/English/CCAA/1.%20Monitor's%20Reports/6.%20Fifth%20Report%20of%20the%20Monitor/Fifth%20Report%20of%20the%20Monitor%20dated%20June%2019,%202019.PDF · Ontario Securities Commission (via CNW): OSC publishes investigative report of QuadrigaCX (2020-06-11) https://www.newswire.ca/news-releases/osc-publishes-investigative-report-of-quadrigacx-871268566.html · Ontario Securities Commission: QuadrigaCX: A Review by Staff of the Ontario Securities Commission (2020-06-11) https://www.osc.gov.on.ca/quadrigacxreport/web/files/QuadrigaCX-A-Review-by-Staff-of-the-Ontario-Securities-Commission.pdf
Cryptopia — the death of a small exchange Exchange failure 2019-01 confidence 76
A consecutive double breach ← Loss of private keys ← New Zealand court-ordered liquidation ← Years of distributions
Root cause: Fragile custody structure without segregation of customer assets
Outcome: Judicial precedent: customer assets belong to them, not to the liquidator · Recovery: Slow Ongoing distributions
Contagion ← No documented contagion
Signals before failure: Custody opacity
Unknowns: Part of the funds was never traced
Sources: NZ liquidation rulings
MapleChange — a breach with the door locked Fraud 2018-10 confidence 70
Announcement of a full balance breach ← Immediate deletion of accounts and channels ← Total disappearance
Root cause: The Disappearance after the «Breach» exposes the theater
Outcome: The explicit «Exit Breach» model · Recovery: None
Contagion ← No documented contagion
Signals before failure: Custody opacity
Unknowns: The operators' identity
Sources: records Oct 2018
Oyster — a founder mints in secret Fraud 2018-10 confidence 58
Founder retains minting privilege ← Secret minting and selling on an exchange ← Collapse of trust
Root cause: A secretly retained mint permission is the founder's bomb
Outcome: A model of founder betrayal via minting · Recovery: None approximately
Contagion ← No documented contagion
Signals before failure: Custody opacitySingle point of failure
Unknowns:
Sources: Oct 2018
Zaif — repeated breach without remediation Exchange failure 2018-09 confidence 78
Hot wallet breach ← 60 million theft ← The second Japanese incident in a single year ← Sale of the platform
Root cause: Operational negligence after prior regulatory warnings
Outcome: Sold to another company along with the Compensation · Recovery: Compensation through the acquisition
Contagion ← No documented contagion
Signals before failure: Custody opacity
Unknowns: The technical details of the vulnerability were never fully published
Sources: FSA records 2018
Bancor — a large ICO is breached Exchange failure 2018-07 confidence 64
Breach of the contract upgrade wallet ← Theft of 23.5 million ← Freezing of its own token
Root cause: The token's Freeze capability exposed a claimed-decentralized centralization
Outcome: The "Freeze" controversy in a decentralized protocol · Recovery: Partial
Contagion ← No documented contagion
Signals before failure: Single point of failureCustody opacity
Unknowns:
Sources: Jul 2018
Coinrail — a weak token gateway Exchange failure 2018-06 confidence 68
Breach of small listed tokens ← Loss of around $40 million ← Suspension and compensation in the native token
Root cause: Listing fragile tokens widens the attack surface
Outcome: Pressured the 2018 bear market · Recovery: Partial
Contagion ← No documented contagion
Signals before failure: Custody opacity
Unknowns:
Sources: KR reports Jun 2018
Bithumb — a series of breaches Exchange failure 2018-06 confidence 70
$31 million breach 2018 ← Suspected insider breach 2019 ← Fines and a complex ownership change
Root cause: Korea's largest platform lived on a chain of security wounds
Outcome: Its ownership itself later became a case · Recovery: Partial
Contagion ← No documented contagion
Signals before failure: Custody opacityGovernance risk
Unknowns: The actual ownership network
Sources: KR records
GainBitcoin — India's great pyramid Fraud 2018-04 confidence 70
A promise of 10% monthly in Bitcoin ← Around 80,000 Bitcoin collected ← The founder's death and protracted prosecutions
Root cause: A fixed monthly yield in Bitcoin is impossible physics
Outcome: The largest Indian crypto case · Recovery: Near None
Contagion ← No documented contagion
Signals before failure: Artificial yield
Unknowns: The whereabouts of the keys
Sources: IN investigations
Centra — the phantom celebrity card Fraud 2018-04 confidence 74
Undisclosed paid celebrity promotion ← Fabricated card partnerships ← Arrests and convictions
Root cause: Famous faces atop a nonexistent product
Outcome: The precedent of penalizing celebrity promoters · Recovery: Seizures
Contagion ← No documented contagion
Signals before failure: Narrative fragility
Unknowns:
Sources: DOJ/SEC 2018
Pincoin — Vietnam's silent pyramid Fraud 2018-04 confidence 66
Alleged monthly returns of 40% ← $660 million from 32,000 victims ← Vacating the offices and disappearing
Root cause: Among the largest silent Exits in Asia
Outcome: — · Recovery: None
Contagion ← No documented contagion
Signals before failure: Artificial yield
Unknowns: The operators' actual identity
Sources: VN reports Apr 2018
Modern Tech — Vietnam's grand pyramid Fraud 2018-04 confidence 58
Two ICOs with yield promises ← 660 million from tens of thousands ← Vacating the offices
Root cause: The largest Vietnamese offering fraud
Outcome: — · Recovery: None
Contagion ← PINCOIN-2018
Signals before failure: Artificial yield
Unknowns:
Sources: Apr 2018
NuBits — the first algorithmic stablecoin to die Stablecoin failure 2018-03 confidence 72
Peg backed by limited funds ← Sell pressure exceeding the defense ← Peg break with no final recovery
Root cause: An algorithmic stablecoin without sufficient reserve dies at the first real test
Outcome: A historic precedent for all subsequent algorithmic stablecoins · Recovery: None
Contagion ← No documented contagion
Signals before failure: Reserve mismatchNarrative fragility
Unknowns:
Sources: market records 2018
BitGrail — the missing Nano Exchange failure 2018-02 confidence 74
Gradual loss of 17 million Nano ← Late discovery and finger-pointing with the project ← Bankruptcy and judicial liability for the owner
Root cause: A Withdrawal vulnerability drained for months without balance monitoring
Outcome: An Italian Ruling held the owner liable · Recovery: Partial, court-ordered
Contagion ← No documented contagion
Signals before failure: Custody opacityReserve mismatch
Unknowns: The real timing of the owner's knowledge
Sources: IT court 2019
BitConnect — the daily-yield Ponzi Fraud 2018-01 confidence 90
Promise of 1% daily via a "trading bot" ← A pyramid referral system ← Regulatory cease orders ← 96% collapse in a day
Root cause: An outright Ponzi: no bot and no trading, new entrants pay the old ones
Outcome: Prosecutions and Partial recovery from the promoters · Recovery: Near None
Contagion ← No documented contagion
Signals before failure: Artificial yieldNarrative fragility
Unknowns: The main founder remains a fugitive as of the latest record
Sources: SEC v. BitConnect 2021 · Texas/NC cease-and-desist 2018
Coincheck — NEM theft from a hot wallet Exchange failure 2018-01 confidence 85
530 million NEM in a single hot wallet ← Without multisig ← Breach ← Full withdrawal ← Compensation from the company's capital
Root cause: An enormous asset in a hot wallet Without multisig
Outcome: The largest theft at the time; Monex acquisition later · Recovery: Full Compensation from the company
Contagion ← No documented contagion
Signals before failure: Custody opacitySingle point of failure
Unknowns: The perpetrators' identity — suspicion of North Korean groups without conclusion
Sources: FSA Japan reports 2018
Prodeum — the one-word ICO Fraud 2018-01 confidence 54
ICO for an agricultural project ← Disappearance leaving a sarcastic word ← Zero product
Root cause: The clearest and fastest documented offering Disappearance
Outcome: A token symbolizing the absurdity of the offerings peak · Recovery: None
Contagion ← CONFIDO-2017
Signals before failure: Custody opacity
Unknowns:
Sources: Jan 2018
NiceHash — breach of the mining platform Exchange failure 2017-12 confidence 75
Compromise of an employee's computer ← Access to the payment wallet ← Theft of 4,700 Bitcoin ← Gradual compensation
Root cause: Social engineering against an employee with critical privileges
Outcome: Restored balances in Full within two years · Recovery: Full
Contagion ← No documented contagion
Signals before failure: Custody opacity
Unknowns: Attribution of the perpetrator (suspected North Korean) is unresolved
Sources: company reports 2017-2020
Youbit — two breaches and bankruptcy Exchange failure 2017-12 confidence 72
First breach with a 17% loss ← Second breach the same year ← Immediate bankruptcy declaration
Root cause: Breached once, it will be breached again if the protocol is not rebuilt
Outcome: Later attributed to North Korea · Recovery: Partial insurance
Contagion ← No documented contagion
Signals before failure: Custody opacitySingle point of failure
Unknowns:
Sources: KR records Dec 2017
USI-Tech — the automated Bitcoin packages Fraud 2017-12 confidence 68
Investment packages with a daily return ← Multiple regulatory shutdowns ← Collapse and disappearance
Root cause: A multinational pyramid with a mining and trading facade
Outcome: — · Recovery: None approximately
Contagion ← No documented contagion
Signals before failure: Artificial yield
Unknowns:
Sources: TX/CA orders 2017-18
Parity — who froze 500 thousand Ethereum? Protocol failure 2017-11 confidence 85
An uninitialized multisig library ← A user becoming its owner by accident ← Self-destruct of the contract ← Permanent freezing of all wallets dependent on it
Root cause: A shared library contract that anyone could kill — death by dependency
Outcome: 513 thousand Ethereum frozen forever; the community refused the Recovery · Recovery: None — intended by governance
Contagion ← No documented contagion
Signals before failure: Single point of failureGovernance risk
Unknowns: The accidental "killer's" intent is generally accepted but unproven
Sources: postmortems Nov 2017
Confido — disappearance after the ICO Fraud 2017-11 confidence 58
ICO for a shipping project ← Team disappearance immediately after raising ← Deletion of digital presence
Root cause: An offering by an unknown team is an invitation to Disappearance
Outcome: A model of early-offering Disappearance · Recovery: None
Contagion ← No documented contagion
Signals before failure: Custody opacityNarrative fragility
Unknowns: Team identity
Sources: Nov 2017
Parity freeze — half a million ether locked Protocol failure 2017-11 confidence 74
User error triggers the library vulnerability ← Destruction of the library contract ← Freezing of multisig wallets
Root cause: A vulnerability in a shared library froze countless funds
Outcome: The most famous permanent Freeze of funds · Recovery: Locked forever
Contagion ← PARITY-2017
Signals before failure: Single point of failure
Unknowns:
Sources: Nov 2017
OneCoin — the coin that never existed Fraud 2017-10 confidence 88
Global pyramid marketing ← No blockchain at all ← Billions from 175 countries ← Disappearance of the founder
Root cause: Selling a Full illusion: no chain and no trading — marketing only
Outcome: The purest fraud cryptocoin: 4+ billion · Recovery: None; Prosecutions Ongoing
Contagion ← No documented contagion
Signals before failure: Narrative fragility
Unknowns: The whereabouts of Ruja Ignatova — among the world's most wanted
Sources: DOJ indictments
Veritaseum — an ICO of promises Fraud 2017-07 confidence 62
ICO with exaggerated promises ← Withdrawing a portion of tokens and selling them ← Subsequent regulatory pursuit
Root cause: An offering with no product is a promise being sold
Outcome: Archive of the troubled 2017 offerings · Recovery: Settlement
Contagion ← No documented contagion
Signals before failure: Narrative fragility
Unknowns:
Sources: SEC 2019
Tezos — the founders' war Governance failure 2017-07 confidence 66
Record ICO of 232 million ← Governance dispute between founders and the foundation ← Freeze and a year-long delay
Root cause: The absence of clear governance freezes the largest fundings
Outcome: A lesson on post-offering governance · Recovery: Delayed launch
Contagion ← No documented contagion
Signals before failure: Governance risk
Unknowns:
Sources: 2017-18
CoinDash — the swapped address Fraud 2017-07 confidence 62
Breach of the ICO website ← Swapping the contribution address ← Transfer of 7 million to the attacker
Root cause: Swapping a single address on a page stole a Full offering
Outcome: The first offering theft by address swapping · Recovery: Self-funded Compensation
Contagion ← No documented contagion
Signals before failure: Single point of failure
Unknowns:
Sources: Jul 2017
BitKRX — silence then disappearance Exchange failure 2016-10 confidence 62
Sudden withdrawal halt ← Administrative silence for weeks ← Shutdown and Polish investigation
Root cause: The absence of any disclosure turned an outage into a potential crime
Outcome: The early «fatal silence» pattern · Recovery: None approximately
Contagion ← No documented contagion
Signals before failure: Custody opacity
Unknowns: The truth of what happened to the funds
Sources: PL investigation 2016
Bitfinex — theft of 120 thousand Bitcoin Exchange failure 2016-08 confidence 86
A flaw in the multisig setup with the custody partner ← Withdrawal of 120 thousand Bitcoin ← A 36% haircut on all customers ← Issuance of a debt token
Root cause: A broken multisig between the platform and the custody provider
Outcome: Historic Recovery in 2022: the perpetrators arrested and Seizure of 94 thousand Bitcoin · Recovery: Near-complete after 6 years
Contagion ← No documented contagion
Signals before failure: Custody opacitySingle point of failure
Unknowns: The split of technical responsibility between the two partners was never publicly resolved
Sources: DOJ seizure 2022 · exchange announcements 2016
The DAO — the original sin Protocol failure 2016-06 confidence 88
Reentrancy in the split function ← Draining a third of the gathered Ethereum ← An existential debate ← A fork of the chain itself
Root cause: Reentrancy before updating the balance — the founding vulnerability of all the textbooks
Outcome: Ethereum Classic was born from the dispute over intervention · Recovery: Recovery through the controversial fork
Contagion ← No documented contagion
Signals before failure: Governance riskSingle point of failure
Unknowns: The exploiter's identity was discussed in later books without judicial resolution
Sources: chain history 2016
Gatecoin — a wound that never healed Exchange failure 2016-05 confidence 70
Breach of 185,000 Ether and 250 Bitcoin ← Years-long recovery attempt ← Judicial liquidation 2019
Root cause: The custody loss drains the platform to a slow death
Outcome: The pattern of deferred death after the Breach · Recovery: None
Contagion ← No documented contagion
Signals before failure: Custody opacityTreasury stress
Unknowns:
Sources: liquidation 2019
ShapeShift — betrayal from within Exchange failure 2016-04 confidence 76
Employee stealing the hot wallet ← Selling access information after dismissal ← Three consecutive thefts
Root cause: The internal threat is more dangerous than the external one
Outcome: The founder documented it publicly with rare transparency · Recovery: Self-funded Compensation
Contagion ← No documented contagion
Signals before failure: Custody opacity
Unknowns:
Sources: public post-mortem 2016
Cryptsy — the silenced insider theft Fraud 2016-01 confidence 72
Early breach kept quiet for years ← Fractional-reserve operation ← Collapse and the founder's flight
Root cause: Hiding the loss turned a Breach into fraud
Outcome: A default Ruling and Seizure · Recovery: Near None
Contagion ← No documented contagion
Signals before failure: Custody opacityReserve mismatch
Unknowns: The founder's whereabouts
Sources: court records 2016
Bter — the breached cold wallet Exchange failure 2015-02 confidence 66
Alleged cold wallet breach ← Theft of 7,170 Bitcoin ← Partial compensation then withering
Root cause: Cold storage means nothing if the signing is compromised
Outcome: Among the earliest lessons of «cold is not automatically safe» · Recovery: Partial
Contagion ← No documented contagion
Signals before failure: Custody opacity
Unknowns: The actual details of the breach
Sources: reports Feb 2015
Bitstamp — phishing the hot wallet Exchange failure 2015-01 confidence 78
Social engineering of an employee ← Hot wallet breach ← Theft of 19,000 Bitcoin
Root cause: A single employee opening a file breaks a platform
Outcome: Survived and rebuilt with colder custody · Recovery: Compensation Full
Contagion ← No documented contagion
Signals before failure: Custody opacitySingle point of failure
Unknowns:
Sources: incident Jan 2015
Mt. Gox — the foundational origin of collapses Exchange failure 2014-02 confidence 88
Dominance of 70% of Bitcoin trading ← Silent breaches over years ← Loss of 850 thousand Bitcoin ← Halt and collapse
Root cause: Self-custody without audit: the theft continued for years without anyone noticing
Outcome: The largest theft in the sector's history at the time · Recovery: Distributions began in 2024 after a full decade
Contagion ← No documented contagion
Signals before failure: Custody opacitySingle point of failure
Unknowns: The identity of the ultimate perpetrators has not been fully resolved in court
Sources: Tokyo court records · trustee reports 2014-2024 · WizSec (Kim Nilsson): The missing MtGox bitcoins (2015-04) https://blog.wizsec.jp/2015/04/the-missing-mtgox-bitcoins.html · WizSec (Kim Nilsson): Breaking open the MtGox case, part 1 (2017-07) https://blog.wizsec.jp/2017/07/breaking-open-mtgox-1.html · MtGox Rehabilitation Trustee (Nobuaki Kobayashi), Tokyo District Court: Announcement of Rehabilitation Trustee (rehabilitation-plan approval phase) (2021-08-27) https://www.mtgox.com/img/pdf/20210827_announcement_en.pdf · U.S. DOJ, U.S. Attorney's Office SDNY: Russian Nationals Charged With Hacking One Cryptocurrency Exchange And Illicitly Operating Another (2023-06-09) https://www.justice.gov/usao-sdny/pr/russian-nationals-charged-hacking-one-cryptocurrency-exchange-and-illicitly-operating · MtGox Rehabilitation Trustee (Nobuaki Kobayashi): Announcement Regarding Commencement of Repayments in Bitcoin and Bitcoin Cash (2024-07-05) https://www.mtgox.com/img/pdf/20240705_01_announcement_en.pdf · MtGox Rehabilitation Trustee (Nobuaki Kobayashi): Announcement Regarding Change of Repayment Deadline (2024-10-10) https://www.mtgox.com/img/pdf/20241010_1b5ee10e-cf5b-420e-9e41-43ccd9e515e5_announcement_en.pdf