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Quant & Final Assessment Final Layer B-5 · Is what we see statistically significant? — states computed from data, not opinions · verification, not prediction

Final contextual assessment: Conflicting Context confidence 54 · known layers 4 of 5 · context, not prediction — the stack stays visible beneath it and is not merged into an opaque number

Full context stack — the five final layers

TokenomicsUnknownconfidence 0
MacroConflictingconfidence 58
CycleConstrainingconfidence 43
SentimentConflictingconfidence 50
QuantConflictingconfidence 66
Quant context alone: Conflicting · confidence 66 · computed 7/10 categories

The ten quant categories — computed, not planted

VolatilityExpandingConflictingRecent/prior realized-vol ratio 1.42x across 35 perp series (5-min marks). · confidence 80
CorrelationStableNeutralMedian 5-min return correlation vs BTC = 0.78 across 34 assets. · confidence 75
Regime shiftShiftingConflictingMarket regime cycle: accumulation → contraction · Market regime cycle: contraction → accumulation · Risk regime shifted: conflicti · confidence 55
Anomaly detectionAnomalousConflictingPORTAL -15.5% (z=-3.6, high) · UNI +9.3% (z=2.5, medium) · confidence 70
DispersionNormalNeutral24h return stdev across assets = 4.1pp. · confidence 60
ConcentrationElevatedConflictingTop-5 pools hold 71.3% of all tracked DEX liquidity (679 pools). · confidence 70
Trend strengthNormalNeutralPORTAL positive in 44% of 5-min steps over the last day — persistence, not direction. · confidence 55
Statistical outliersUnknownUnknownUnknown · confidence 0
Factor analysisUnknownUnknownUnknown · confidence 0 · gap: Unknown Statistical Coverage
Market structureUnknownUnknownUnknown · confidence 0

Quant timeline

2026-06-17Volatility expansion — Volatility regime: normal → expanding confidence 60
2026-06-17Anomaly event — PORTAL 24h return z-score -3.6 (high) confidence 70
2026-06-16Anomaly event — UNI 24h return z-score 3.7 (high) confidence 70
2026-06-16Anomaly event — HMSTR 24h return z-score 3.3 (high) confidence 70
2026-06-16Anomaly event — UNI 24h return z-score 3.8 (high) confidence 70
2026-06-16Anomaly event — UNI 24h return z-score 3.4 (high) confidence 70
2026-06-16Anomaly event — UNI 24h return z-score 3.5 (high) confidence 70
2026-06-16Anomaly event — HMSTR 24h return z-score 3.5 (high) confidence 70
2026-06-16Anomaly event — HMSTR 24h return z-score 3.7 (high) confidence 70
2026-06-16Concentration spike — Top-5 pools reached 71.1% of tracked liquidity confidence 65
2026-06-16Anomaly event — HMSTR 24h return z-score 3.4 (high) confidence 70
2026-06-16Anomaly event — HMSTR 24h return z-score 3.6 (high) confidence 70
2026-06-16Anomaly event — HMSTR 24h return z-score 3.8 (high) confidence 70
2026-06-16Anomaly event — UNI 24h return z-score 3.2 (high) confidence 70
2026-06-16Anomaly event — UNI 24h return z-score 3.1 (high) confidence 70
2026-06-16Anomaly event — PORTAL 24h return z-score 4.2 (critical) confidence 70
2026-06-16Anomaly event — PORTAL 24h return z-score 4.4 (critical) confidence 70
2026-06-16Anomaly event — PORTAL 24h return z-score 4.5 (critical) confidence 70
2026-06-16Anomaly event — PORTAL 24h return z-score 4.6 (critical) confidence 70
2026-06-16Anomaly event — PORTAL 24h return z-score 4.8 (critical) confidence 70
2026-06-16Anomaly event — PORTAL 24h return z-score 4.9 (critical) confidence 70
2026-06-16Anomaly event — PORTAL 24h return z-score 5.1 (critical) confidence 70
2026-06-16Anomaly event — PORTAL 24h return z-score 5.2 (critical) confidence 70
2026-06-16Anomaly event — PORTAL 24h return z-score 5.3 (critical) confidence 70
2026-06-16Anomaly event — PORTAL 24h return z-score 5.4 (critical) confidence 70
2026-06-16Anomaly event — PORTAL 24h return z-score 5.0 (critical) confidence 70
2026-06-16Concentration spike — Top-5 pools reached 70.7% of tracked liquidity confidence 65
2026-06-16Anomaly event — PORTAL 24h return z-score 4.7 (critical) confidence 70
2026-06-16Anomaly event — PORTAL 24h return z-score 4.3 (critical) confidence 70
2026-06-15Anomaly event — PORTAL 24h return z-score -3.0 (high) confidence 70
2026-06-15Anomaly event — PORTAL 24h return z-score -2.9 (medium) confidence 70
2026-06-15Anomaly event — PORTAL 24h return z-score -3.0 (medium) confidence 70
2026-06-15Anomaly event — PORTAL 24h return z-score -3.1 (high) confidence 70
2026-06-15Anomaly event — PORTAL 24h return z-score -3.2 (high) confidence 70
2026-06-15Anomaly event — PORTAL 24h return z-score -3.4 (high) confidence 70
2026-06-15Anomaly event — PORTAL 24h return z-score -3.3 (high) confidence 70
2026-06-14Anomaly event — TAO 24h return z-score 3.8 (high) confidence 70
2026-06-14Anomaly event — TAO 24h return z-score 4.3 (critical) confidence 70
2026-06-14Anomaly event — TAO 24h return z-score 4.2 (critical) confidence 70
2026-06-14Anomaly event — TAO 24h return z-score 4.1 (critical) confidence 70
2026-06-13Anomaly event — HMSTR 24h return z-score -5.1 (critical) confidence 70
2026-06-13Anomaly event — HMSTR 24h return z-score -5.0 (critical) confidence 70
2026-06-13Anomaly event — HMSTR 24h return z-score -4.9 (critical) confidence 70
2026-06-13Anomaly event — HMSTR 24h return z-score -4.6 (critical) confidence 70
2026-06-13Anomaly event — HMSTR 24h return z-score -4.7 (critical) confidence 70
2026-06-13Anomaly event — HMSTR 24h return z-score -5.2 (critical) confidence 70
2026-06-13Anomaly event — HMSTR 24h return z-score -5.3 (critical) confidence 70
2026-06-13Anomaly event — HMSTR 24h return z-score -5.4 (critical) confidence 70
2026-06-13Anomaly event — HMSTR 24h return z-score -4.8 (critical) confidence 70
2026-06-13Anomaly event — HMSTR 24h return z-score -4.5 (critical) confidence 70
2026-06-13Anomaly event — HMSTR 24h return z-score -4.0 (critical) confidence 70
2026-06-13Anomaly event — HMSTR 24h return z-score -3.9 (high) confidence 70
2026-06-13Anomaly event — HMSTR 24h return z-score -4.0 (high) confidence 70
2026-06-13Anomaly event — HMSTR 24h return z-score -3.8 (high) confidence 70
2026-06-13Anomaly event — HMSTR 24h return z-score -3.7 (high) confidence 70
2026-06-13Anomaly event — TAO 24h return z-score 3.6 (high) confidence 70
2026-06-13Anomaly event — TAO 24h return z-score 3.7 (high) confidence 70
2026-06-13Anomaly event — TAO 24h return z-score 3.8 (high) confidence 70
2026-06-13Anomaly event — TAO 24h return z-score 3.9 (high) confidence 70
2026-06-13Anomaly event — TAO 24h return z-score 4.0 (critical) confidence 70
2026-06-13Anomaly event — TAO 24h return z-score 4.1 (critical) confidence 70
2026-06-13Anomaly event — TAO 24h return z-score 3.5 (high) confidence 70
2026-06-13Anomaly event — HMSTR 24h return z-score -3.5 (high) confidence 70
2026-06-13Anomaly event — HMSTR 24h return z-score -3.6 (high) confidence 70
2026-06-12Anomaly event — PYTH 24h return z-score 3.9 (high) confidence 70
2026-06-12Anomaly event — PYTH 24h return z-score 4.2 (critical) confidence 70
2026-06-12Volatility expansion — Volatility regime: normal → expanding confidence 60
2026-06-12Anomaly event — HMSTR 24h return z-score 5.6 (critical) confidence 70
2026-06-12Anomaly event — HMSTR 24h return z-score 5.4 (critical) confidence 70
2026-06-12Anomaly event — HMSTR 24h return z-score 5.5 (critical) confidence 70
2026-06-12Anomaly event — HMSTR 24h return z-score 5.7 (critical) confidence 70
2026-06-12Anomaly event — HMSTR 24h return z-score 5.2 (critical) confidence 70
2026-06-12Anomaly event — HMSTR 24h return z-score 5.1 (critical) confidence 70
2026-06-12Anomaly event — HMSTR 24h return z-score 5.3 (critical) confidence 70
2026-06-12Anomaly event — HMSTR 24h return z-score 5.0 (critical) confidence 70
2026-06-12Anomaly event — HMSTR 24h return z-score 4.7 (critical) confidence 70
2026-06-12Anomaly event — HMSTR 24h return z-score 4.3 (critical) confidence 70
2026-06-12Anomaly event — HMSTR 24h return z-score 4.1 (critical) confidence 70
2026-06-12Anomaly event — HMSTR 24h return z-score 3.0 (high) confidence 70
2026-06-12Anomaly event — HMSTR 24h return z-score 3.8 (high) confidence 70
2026-06-12Anomaly event — PYTH 24h return z-score 3.1 (high) confidence 70
2026-06-12Anomaly event — PORTAL 24h return z-score -3.1 (high) confidence 70
2026-06-12Anomaly event — PYTH 24h return z-score 3.2 (high) confidence 70
2026-06-12Anomaly event — HMSTR 24h return z-score -3.0 (high) confidence 70
2026-06-12Anomaly event — HMSTR 24h return z-score -3.0 (medium) confidence 70
2026-06-12Anomaly event — HMSTR 24h return z-score -3.9 (high) confidence 70
2026-06-12Anomaly event — HMSTR 24h return z-score -3.4 (high) confidence 70
2026-06-12Anomaly event — HMSTR 24h return z-score -4.0 (critical) confidence 70
2026-06-12Anomaly event — HMSTR 24h return z-score -3.7 (high) confidence 70
2026-06-12Anomaly event — HMSTR 24h return z-score -3.1 (high) confidence 70
2026-06-12Anomaly event — HMSTR 24h return z-score -3.2 (high) confidence 70
2026-06-12Anomaly event — HMSTR 24h return z-score -3.5 (high) confidence 70
2026-06-12Anomaly event — HMSTR 24h return z-score -3.6 (high) confidence 70
2026-06-12Anomaly event — HMSTR 24h return z-score -2.7 (medium) confidence 70
2026-06-12Anomaly event — HMSTR 24h return z-score -4.2 (critical) confidence 70
2026-06-12Anomaly event — HMSTR 24h return z-score -4.4 (critical) confidence 70
2026-06-12Anomaly event — HMSTR 24h return z-score -4.3 (critical) confidence 70
2026-06-12Anomaly event — HMSTR 24h return z-score -4.1 (critical) confidence 70
2026-06-12Anomaly event — HMSTR 24h return z-score -4.8 (critical) confidence 70
2026-06-12Regime shift — Volatility regime: expanding → normal confidence 60
2026-06-12Anomaly event — HMSTR 24h return z-score -5.0 (critical) confidence 70
2026-06-12Anomaly event — HMSTR 24h return z-score -4.9 (critical) confidence 70
2026-06-12Anomaly event — HMSTR 24h return z-score -4.7 (critical) confidence 70
2026-06-12Anomaly event — HMSTR 24h return z-score -4.6 (critical) confidence 70
2026-06-12Anomaly event — HMSTR 24h return z-score -5.2 (critical) confidence 70
2026-06-12Anomaly event — HMSTR 24h return z-score -5.3 (critical) confidence 70
2026-06-12Anomaly event — HMSTR 24h return z-score -5.4 (critical) confidence 70
2026-06-12Anomaly event — HMSTR 24h return z-score -5.1 (critical) confidence 70
2026-06-11Concentration spike — Top-5 pools reached 94.9% of tracked liquidity confidence 65
2026-06-11Anomaly event — PYTH 24h return z-score 2.9 (medium) confidence 70
2026-06-11Anomaly event — PYTH 24h return z-score 3.2 (high) confidence 70
2026-06-11Anomaly event — PYTH 24h return z-score 3.4 (high) confidence 70
2026-06-11Anomaly event — PYTH 24h return z-score 3.5 (high) confidence 70
2026-06-11Anomaly event — PYTH 24h return z-score 3.7 (high) confidence 70
2026-06-11Anomaly event — PYTH 24h return z-score 3.6 (high) confidence 70
2026-06-11Anomaly event — PYTH 24h return z-score 3.0 (high) confidence 70
2026-06-11Anomaly event — HMSTR 24h return z-score 2.7 (medium) confidence 70
2026-06-11Anomaly event — HMSTR 24h return z-score 3.1 (high) confidence 70
2026-06-11Anomaly event — HMSTR 24h return z-score 3.0 (high) confidence 70
2026-06-11Anomaly event — HMSTR 24h return z-score 2.8 (medium) confidence 70
2026-06-11Anomaly event — PYTH 24h return z-score 2.7 (medium) confidence 70
2026-06-11Anomaly event — PYTH 24h return z-score 3.1 (high) confidence 70
2026-06-11Anomaly event — HMSTR 24h return z-score 2.6 (medium) confidence 70
2026-06-11Anomaly event — HMSTR 24h return z-score 3.2 (high) confidence 70
2026-06-11Anomaly event — HMSTR 24h return z-score 3.3 (high) confidence 70
2026-06-11Anomaly event — HMSTR 24h return z-score 3.4 (high) confidence 70
2026-06-11Anomaly event — HMSTR 24h return z-score 2.9 (medium) confidence 70
2026-06-11Anomaly event — HMSTR 24h return z-score 3.0 (medium) confidence 70
2026-06-11Anomaly event — PYTH 24h return z-score 3.3 (high) confidence 70
2026-06-11Anomaly event — PYTH 24h return z-score 3.0 (medium) confidence 70
2026-06-11Concentration spike — Top-5 pools reached 70.7% of tracked liquidity confidence 65
2026-06-11Anomaly event — HMSTR 24h return z-score 3.5 (high) confidence 70
2026-06-11Volatility expansion — Volatility regime: normal → expanding confidence 60
2026-06-11Anomaly event — HMSTR 24h return z-score 3.7 (high) confidence 70
2026-06-11Anomaly event — HMSTR 24h return z-score 3.6 (high) confidence 70
2026-06-11Concentration spike — Top-5 pools reached 71.8% of tracked liquidity confidence 65
2026-06-11Regime shift — Volatility regime: expanding → normal confidence 60
2026-06-11Anomaly event — PYTH 24h return z-score 4.0 (critical) confidence 70
2026-06-11Anomaly event — PYTH 24h return z-score 4.2 (critical) confidence 70
2026-06-11Anomaly event — PYTH 24h return z-score 3.9 (high) confidence 70
2026-06-11Anomaly event — PYTH 24h return z-score 4.0 (high) confidence 70
2026-06-11Anomaly event — PYTH 24h return z-score 4.1 (critical) confidence 70
2026-06-11Anomaly event — PYTH 24h return z-score 3.8 (high) confidence 70

Quant unknowns

Unknown Statistical Coverage
Every state here is the direct output of computation on our stores: volatility from deviation ratios between the two halves of the history, correlation from 5-minute returns against Bitcoin, concentration from the share of the five largest pools, outliers from cross-sectional standard-deviation scores, and trend strength from the ratio of positive steps. What is not yet computed (factor analysis, market structure) is a declared gap. Last computation 2026-06-17T13:48Z.