Distillation Lab 02 — Elliott Waves The wave count is unfalsifiable, but Elliott's hard rules are testable — two trials: the doctrine itself, and the third-wave ignition signal

Trial A — the doctrine: "the third is never the shortest and is often the longest". We surface every zigzag five-wave structure (reversal 15%) mechanically and count. Randomness expects the longest in 33%.
Trial B — the signal: first wave ≥20% ← retracement 30-80% holds the bottom ← first close above the first's high = third-wave ignition. We measure +10/+30 days vs the baseline. Every parameter declared.

Doctrine verdict: The doctrine collapses: the third is longest in only 31% of 6043 structures — close to randomness (33%)

Signal verdict: Third-wave ignition below the baseline (-12.6% vs -8.2%)

6043five-wave structures detected

31%third is longest (randomness: 33%)

30%third is shortest (Elliott: 0%)

843ignition signals

268/825positive +30d

-5.6%median +10d

Last scan 2026-06-16T17:30Z · rescans every 24 hours · fresh signals enter the strategy book · observation, not advice.

OPEN2026-06-11 · wave1 +36.4% · retracement 68.2%+10d: Maturing · +30d: Maturing

C2026-06-03 · wave1 +27.1% · retracement 75.2%+10d: -3.6% · +30d: Maturing

JTO2026-06-03 · wave1 +130.1% · retracement 54.7%+10d: -14.9% · +30d: Maturing

NEAR2026-06-03 · wave1 +138.6% · retracement 32.4%+10d: -24.4% · +30d: Maturing

RIF2026-06-02 · wave1 +146.0% · retracement 70.3%+10d: -7.5% · +30d: Maturing

WLD2026-06-01 · wave1 +59.3% · retracement 67.5%+10d: +13.5% · +30d: Maturing

HOME2026-05-31 · wave1 +93.9% · retracement 71.7%+10d: -12.4% · +30d: Maturing

STG2026-05-31 · wave1 +56.2% · retracement 70.8%+10d: +12.6% · +30d: Maturing

FET2026-05-30 · wave1 +84.3% · retracement 54.0%+10d: -28.5% · +30d: Maturing

IO2026-05-26 · wave1 +73.9% · retracement 51.1%+10d: -22.2% · +30d: Maturing

PHA2026-05-25 · wave1 +122.0% · retracement 68.4%+10d: -30.2% · +30d: Maturing

TIA2026-05-25 · wave1 +33.7% · retracement 71.3%+10d: -28.7% · +30d: Maturing

NIL2026-05-24 · wave1 +43.6% · retracement 79.4%+10d: -23.2% · +30d: Maturing

BICO2026-05-23 · wave1 +45.6% · retracement 70.2%+10d: -26.5% · +30d: Maturing

EIGEN2026-05-23 · wave1 +47.7% · retracement 55.6%+10d: -13.2% · +30d: Maturing

2Z2026-05-21 · wave1 +55.5% · retracement 47.1%+10d: -17.5% · +30d: Maturing

DODO2026-05-21 · wave1 +57.0% · retracement 50.6%+10d: -24.5% · +30d: Maturing

ZEC2026-05-20 · wave1 +103.4% · retracement 32.6%+10d: -21.5% · +30d: Maturing

QNT2026-05-16 · wave1 +28.7% · retracement 69.9%+10d: -6.8% · +30d: -12.7%

AI2026-05-14 · wave1 +45.1% · retracement 64.6%+10d: -8.7% · +30d: -27.4%

OSMO2026-05-13 · wave1 +183.6% · retracement 40.5%+10d: -35.7% · +30d: -45.4%

FIDA2026-05-12 · wave1 +57.5% · retracement 53.2%+10d: +71.9% · +30d: +22.0%

LISTA2026-05-12 · wave1 +30.8% · retracement 72.2%+10d: -21.0% · +30d: -45.9%

C2026-05-11 · wave1 +34.7% · retracement 66.1%+10d: -0.3% · +30d: +7.7%

GTC2026-05-11 · wave1 +56.8% · retracement 66.7%+10d: -39.3% · +30d: -59.0%

PIXEL2026-05-11 · wave1 +37.1% · retracement 63.9%+10d: -22.8% · +30d: -43.4%

HAEDAL2026-05-10 · wave1 +41.3% · retracement 65.9%+10d: -24.9% · +30d: -52.0%

PSG2026-05-09 · wave1 +48.5% · retracement 62.8%+10d: +4.6% · +30d: -39.5%

XAI2026-05-09 · wave1 +31.4% · retracement 69.6%+10d: -15.6% · +30d: -33.6%

ENA2026-05-08 · wave1 +56.8% · retracement 54.5%+10d: -19.8% · +30d: -31.8%

KMNO2026-05-08 · wave1 +37.8% · retracement 61.3%+10d: -17.1% · +30d: -37.1%

MOVR2026-05-08 · wave1 +58.3% · retracement 44.3%+10d: -17.4% · +30d: -52.9%

NEAR2026-05-08 · wave1 +54.9% · retracement 62.1%+10d: +1.8% · +30d: +28.9%

PLUME2026-05-08 · wave1 +51.0% · retracement 52.8%+10d: -23.2% · +30d: -25.7%

SAHARA2026-05-08 · wave1 +105.1% · retracement 57.2%+10d: +6.3% · +30d: +22.2%

TIA2026-05-08 · wave1 +50.6% · retracement 57.0%+10d: -10.7% · +30d: -28.8%

ALGO2026-05-07 · wave1 +51.7% · retracement 51.7%+10d: -16.2% · +30d: -28.3%

D2026-05-07 · wave1 +59.9% · retracement 48.6%+10d: -12.2% · +30d: -64.3%

NIL2026-05-07 · wave1 +46.5% · retracement 73.7%+10d: -48.4% · +30d: -57.4%

STRK2026-05-07 · wave1 +42.7% · retracement 54.0%+10d: -11.5% · +30d: -31.2%

1000CAT2026-05-06 · wave1 +34.8% · retracement 61.1%+10d: -12.6% · +30d: -30.8%

ARKM2026-05-06 · wave1 +42.0% · retracement 58.7%+10d: -11.8% · +30d: -14.2%

FLUX2026-05-06 · wave1 +62.7% · retracement 39.8%+10d: -5.0% · +30d: -32.4%

HMSTR2026-05-06 · wave1 +38.7% · retracement 66.0%+10d: -20.4% · +30d: -16.9%

LINK2026-05-06 · wave1 +25.3% · retracement 75.0%+10d: -2.7% · +30d: -26.3%

WIF2026-05-06 · wave1 +32.9% · retracement 75.9%+10d: -10.8% · +30d: -31.0%

AR2026-05-05 · wave1 +34.8% · retracement 64.9%+10d: -1.8% · +30d: +3.4%

CATI2026-05-04 · wave1 +55.0% · retracement 60.4%+10d: +3.6% · +30d: -16.8%

DASH2026-05-04 · wave1 +54.8% · retracement 77.7%+10d: -2.4% · +30d: -17.5%

DOGS2026-05-04 · wave1 +48.8% · retracement 53.3%+10d: +58.4% · +30d: +30.0%