Cycle Map Layer B-3 · Where are we in the market journey? — position, not prediction · Neutral phases: Accumulation, Expansion, Acceleration, Distribution, Contraction, Recovery

Overall cycle context: Restrictive assessment confidence 43 (in the assessment, not the returns) · 5 of 6 cycles known · events: 8

The six cycles

Bitcoin cycleContractionRestrictiveDrawdown from cycle high · assessment confidence 40

Crypto cycleContractionRestrictiveBroad market heaviness, multi-year drawdown · assessment confidence 35

Altcoin seasonAccumulationNeutralWeak alt participation; selective rotation window cited · assessment confidence 45

Liquidity cycleUnknownUnknownUnknown · assessment confidence 0 · gap: Unknown Liquidity Phase

Risk cycleAccumulationNeutralRisk cycle (bridged from macro risk state) · assessment confidence 45

Market regimeAccumulationNeutralLive market regime (context engine) · assessment confidence 50

Timeline — market evolution over time

2026-06-16Cycle transition — Market regime cycle: accumulation → contraction confidence 60 · context_engine.py

2026-06-16Cycle transition — Market regime cycle: contraction → accumulation confidence 60 · context_engine.py

2026-06-13Cycle transition — Market regime cycle: accumulation → contraction confidence 60 · context_engine.py

2026-06-13Cycle transition — Market regime cycle: contraction → accumulation confidence 60 · context_engine.py

2026-06-12Cycle transition — Market regime cycle: accumulation → contraction confidence 60 · context_engine.py

2026-06-12Cycle transition — Market regime cycle: contraction → accumulation confidence 60 · context_engine.py

2026-06-08Market structure change — Global equity stress episode (Korea halt) coincides with crypto weekly drawdown confidence 55 · AlArabiya Business

2026-05Altcoin season event — Analysts flag May–July 2026 as possible selective-altseason window confidence 40 · ainvest supercycle deep dive

Unified context stack — the five layers, separate not merged

tokenomicsUnknownconfidence 0

macroMixedconfidence 58

cycleRestrictiveconfidence 43

sentimentMixedconfidence 50

quantMixedconfidence 66

Cycle unknowns — declared gaps, not hidden assumptions

Unknown Liquidity Phase

Principle: Bitcoin cycle, crypto cycle, altcoin season, liquidity, risk, and regime — each dial has its evidence and confidence, and the unknown states it plainly. Live bridges: the context engine feeds the market regime and publishes transition events automatically, and macro feeds the risk cycle. Last build 2026-06-17T13:48Z.